[caikq898]

---

What would you lead

[Phil]

Low club looks completely normal but I'm guessing this gave up the 9th trick.

[Phil]

Double

[whereagles]

Top club, on grounds I might figure out what to do later.

[Fluffy]

I think this has been studied already hasn't it? from AKxx you lead the ace to be able to switch, with AKxxx an no entry you lead low to be able to run the suit when partner has doubleton, specially dubleton queen, and also to try to sneak partner's jack if the queen is in dummy.

[suokko]

Opponents rate to have a bit extras for their game if they have cards for their biding. Also partner is likely to hold 4 card spade and 4 card hearts. That leaves only 5 minor cards. IF opponents have diamond fit then partner is likely to be 4-4-1-4. In that case 3NT might well be cards like Qx AKxxx xxxx Qx.

But I would rate it to be more likely that partner is 4-4-(23). If partner is 4-4-2-3 then leading high works well giving us chance to lead a small next without killing our entry to run the suit. If partner is 4-4-3-2 then we have to lead a small club and hope that partner can stop 2 of their 3 trick taking suits and play back a club. How likely is it that opponents holding 27+ hcp and our 7 in clubs leaves enough room for partner to stop two suits? 5-6 points maximum for partner is just enough to have stoppers in two suits.

Then it is only question if heart honors are enough to stop the suit under declarer. That of course requires pretty good cards for partner which makes it a bit less likely that partner holds enough stoppers to prevent 9 tricks from running if we give first trick to declarer.

I feel this is very close between low or high club. High club can win when partner and dummy hold JTxx clubs and partner has a quick side entry to play through declarer. Also when declarer bid 3NT with half stopper only if they have close slam values but not quite enough to invite a slam.

[whereagles]

Fluffy, on 2015-February-02, 04:25, said:

I think this has been studied already hasn't it? from AKxx you lead the ace to be able to switch, with AKxxx an no entry you lead low to be able to run the suit when partner has doubleton, specially dubleton queen, and also to try to sneak partner's jack if the queen is in dummy.

Yes, it has been studied, but solely for the purpose of cashing the suit. The advantage of a top card lead goes further than suit cashing: it retains the initiative. After a low lead, if a switch is necessary, it can't be done anymore (this is Bird/Anthias stuff).

And besides, there certainly are suit cash out positions where it is indifferent to lead low or top. You lose some cash outs, but make it up for it when you find the killing switch at trick 2.

[mikeh]

I agree with Fluffy, and Phil. This is a non-problem, even tho the low club may work out poorly.

As for Nuno's comment about the need to switch, I would place the odds of there being a killing switch to any other suit at about zero.

Now, in part I am assuming that LHO's 3♦ call showed extras, as it would for many. If LHO is the type who bids on shape, and might hold something like Kxxxx Kx AQ10xx x, then maybe one can successfully cash club, switch to spades and find declarer with x AQJxx Kx QJxx.

So I'd want to know their methods in order to be confident. However, my view would be that against me the low club is absolutely correct, even tho it might lose, and against a shape bidder, the low club is probably correct, but with a higher rate of failure.

[suokko]

mikeh, on 2015-February-02, 13:33, said:

So I'd want to know their methods in order to be confident. However, my view would be that against me the low club is absolutely correct, even tho it might lose, and against a shape bidder, the low club is probably correct, but with a higher rate of failure.

Against shape bidders low club becomes better because 3NT is a lot less likely to be based on half stopper (At least if they have agreed on that method). Also against shape bidders partner holds more values making it more likely that he can stop two suits from running.

[whereagles]

mikeh, on 2015-February-02, 13:33, said:

As for Nuno's comment about the need to switch, I would place the odds of there being a killing switch to any other suit at about zero.

hmmm.. I wouldn't be so assertive. It's quite possible simulations favor a top club. Trouble is sims work double dummy.. In real life finding a killing switch rates to be hard, even if it is there. Discounting that maybe low club works better.. who knows?

[BillPatch]

I am interested in simulating this problem. Any preferences from the forum what systemic inferences they would prefer I make, examples 2/1, SA, precision or acol? Should opener's rebid show extras?

[nige1]

caikq898, on 2015-February-01, 19:57, said:

What would you lead

---

IMO Assuming 3rd & 5th: ♣2 = 10. ♠8 = 8. ♣A = 7. ♦3 = 6. ♦9 = 5. ♥3 = 4.