[PhilKing]

 GrahamJson, on 2014-December-27, 05:10, said:

I don't trust oppo that much. These days players will open 2H on Kxxxx because "it's a bidders game", so there is no guarantee oppo have a nine card fit. Some days they may not even have eight.

From the database ...

The level of fit when the auction started 2♥-p-4♥, excluding all non-standard twos (Fantunes, Muideberg etc) was as follows:

11, 9, 9, 8, 11, 8, 9, 9, 8, 9, 10, 11, 10, 8

[the hog]

 chasetb, on 2014-December-27, 03:19, said:

Well, when opponents have a guaranteed 9+ card fit, then you have AT LEAST one 8-card fit, and probably two fits, therefore, it cannot be a misfit! I bid 4♠ pretty quickly, because 10 tricks is easier than 11; if we don't have a Spade fit, I expect us to have a major Club fit and we'll find it then. If not, -500 is still better than -620.

Only if you play against idiots. If 4h was bid as a sac and 4s is wrong but 5c is right do you seriously expect your expert opp to x? Are you living in a dream world?

[MrAce]

 the hog, on 2014-December-27, 07:47, said:

Only if you play against idiots. If 4h was bid as a sac and 4s is wrong but 5c is right do you seriously expect your expert opp to x? Are you living in a dream world?

Yep, and opponents see our hand and pass when it is right and dbl when it is right also, We can't win against them if they are that accurate in all critical decisions anyway, regardless of what we do.

[steve2005]

 GrahamJson, on 2014-December-27, 05:10, said:

I don't trust oppo that much. These days players will open 2H on Kxxxx because "it's a bidders game", so there is no guarantee oppo have a nine card fit. Some days they may not even have eight. Yes, 4S could easily be the winning bid, but on average I think Pass is the percentage action. There is also partnership confidence. Partners aren't generally happy if you go for 1,100 by taking unilateral action when they re sitting on HKQJx. They are more likely to understand not coming in at the four level on Qxxxx. But maybe I'm still attached too much to Reece's ideas.

Even solid citizens who only open on 6♥ partner can raise on 2♥ so 9-card ♥ fit not a guarantee. But I still bid 4♠.

[masonbarge]

 MrAce, on 2014-December-26, 09:28, said:

As we see in replies, some people look at this hand and see 8 hcp. And they naively believe it needs 13-15 hcp and 4 card spades in order to make game for us.

That's not at all what I meant. Give me a little credit.

Your 8HCP are may be concentrated in your suits, but it's still 8 HCP. Or put another way, out of 20 HCP in your suits, you have less than half. You have no idea where the ace and king of spades are.

If you pass you will certainly lose a double game swing sometimes, but if you bid you're going to go -800 (or more) in some cases where the opponents are headed down.

The state of the match might make a difference. If you think you're behind, the argument for bidding becomes stronger. But it's an odds-off gamble. If you have confidence in your team, a pass is better.

[GrahamJson]

I agree with the last comment. It sounds to me like 4H was bid to make, in which case the distribution may come as an unpleasant surprise to declarer. I have seen it many times.

My observation on BBO is that players get too busy. They often get away with it because oppo get too busy too, for example by sacrificing ahead of partner. Against good oppo they would do so well.

[cherdano]

 masonbarge, on 2014-December-27, 10:16, said:

The state of the match might make a difference. If you think you're behind, the argument for bidding becomes stronger. But it's an odds-off gamble. If you have confidence in your team, a pass is better.

If your opponent at the other table in the same seat is a strong player, then passing is the risky move, and 4♠ is the bid that is likely to lead to a push.

[eagles123]

well bidders win here:

---

I have learnt a lot from this

thanks,

Eagles

[Cthulhu D]

 PhilKing, on 2014-December-27, 05:41, said:

From the database ...

The level of fit when the auction started 2♥-p-4♥, excluding all non-standard twos (Fantunes, Muideberg etc) was as follows:

11, 9, 9, 8, 11, 8, 9, 9, 8, 9, 10, 11, 10, 8

What was the 'correct' answer on the other hands you posted?

This hand is interesting - but you have a larger sample size.

[MrAce]

 masonbarge, on 2014-December-27, 10:16, said:

..... But it's an odds-off gamble. If you have confidence in your team, a pass is better.

If I had teammates who are passing a 6-5 hand with spades and void in heart when they opened and raised hearts to game, vulnerable, and wait for the perfect hand to bid 4♠ each time they opened and raised to 4♥....I would not have much confidence in my team tbh. I am simply stating my feelings, whether I may be right or wrong and you obviously have different opinions about the matter.

I am not that aggressive for all 6-5 hands in same situation, as you can see in another thread by Diana, I passed J KJxxx KT876 x love all, when LHO opened 4♠ and it came to me. But spades over hearts has significant advantage for obvious reasons and rejecting to use it seems weird to me. And believe me I am not talking due to result in this hand. I said what I had to say b4 result was posted. But bidding has so many other ways to win, including the ones where bidding actually was wrong, since opponents do not see your hand and what you bid 4♠ with.

[PhilKing]

 PhilKing, on 2014-December-26, 12:38, said:

OK, I have dug up a few similar hands from the database, so try this quiz. On each hand the bidding starts 2♥-pass-4♥:

1. Game All. ♠ KQJ95 ♥ A ♦ T3 ♣ J9643

2. Vul v non vul. ♠ QT862 ♥ A6 ♦ 3 ♣ AQ872

3. Non vul v vul. ♠ KQ876 ♥ 96 ♦ 6 ♣ AQ832

4. Vul v non vul. 2♥ = Fantunes.♠ KT743 ♥ J ♦ QT ♣ AQJ84

So, do you feel lucky?

Sorry, I never gave the answers.

1. A fiasco. The 2♥ opener forgets to double 4♠ with: ♠87632♥KQT98♦K♣T5. But that's OK, because our partner doubles 5♥ for no particular reason on ♠T4♥Q98764♦♣A87. -850.

2. 4♠ bid and made - they are not cheap in 5♥.

3. You escape for -100 in 4♠X on soft defence. 4♥ is cold.

4. You get whacked for -200, but again 4♥ is cold.

[lamford]

 MrAce, on 2014-December-28, 05:49, said:

I am not that aggressive for all 6-5 hands in same situation, as you can see in another thread by Diana, I passed J KJxxx KT876 x love all, when LHO opened 4♠ and it came to me.

I agree with you that passing on the East hand given by eagles is losing bridge. I would bid 4NT on the hand you give here if 5-6 but not if 6-5, assuming the missing card is a small one.

[lamford]

 GrahamJson, on 2014-December-26, 05:52, said:

Of course I don't know that partner has four hearts, but I think it is quite likely. He always does whenever I bid 4S on this sort of hand.

Then there is a fault with your club's shuffling and dealing algorithm. Get a new one from Jeff Smith.

[kuhchung]

Thanks to eagles123's bump. I enjoyed rereading this and am not so terrified by PhilKing's examples anymore.

[rmnka447]

I didn't reply, but agree with the bidders.

A couple factors should push you to bid. First, the opponents have a fit, so chances are high that you have a fit also. Second, you have a very distributional hand. Shapely hands tend to play well if you can find a fit.

♠ Qxxxx isn't ideal to bid on, but you don't want to miss 4 ♠ if it's a make.


Side Story - Last half of regional KO 2nd bracket final, behind by 31 at the half. NV vs. Vul, LHO bids 1 ♠, partner passes, RHO bids 4 ♠ and I hold -- ♠ - ♥ xx ♦ AJxxx ♣ A108xxx. I had no problem bidding 4 NT (2 places to play). LHO bid 5 ♥. Partner bid 6 ♣ which was doubled and passed out. RHO unfortunately decided to lead the ♠ A. Partner held the ♠ Kxx, a stiff ♦, and ♣ KQJx. He pitched a ♥ on the ♠ K, ruffed out the ♦ to set them up, and made 6 for +1090. Had RHO found a ♥ lead, we would have been off 1 in 6 ♣ doubled. Once I bid 4 NT, the opponents were destined to be down at least a Vul game swing minimum if they didn't find a similar bid at the other table. If the opponents had bid on to 6 ♠, a ♦ lead by partner and easy ♦ return beats 6 ♠. One of the reasons I made the bid had been a similar experience a couple years previous holding a 6-5 hand VUL where I didn't bid. The corresponding opponent found a 4 NT call, the sac was right and it cost us a VUL game swing. So, I lived and learned not to be timid with distributional hands. (BTW, we won the final by 39.)