[MrAce]

 cherdano, on 2014-November-26, 12:32, said:

If RHO has Q-8th and LHO has Ax, then the odds are 7:1 that RHO has the T. I am happy to double with these odds.

Arend, you are looking at it in a vacuum. We all have been in this position so many times. Double will achieve either;

a-turn 100 to 200
b-doubled slam making which was always making.
c-doubled slam making when it could be defeated
d-they bid something else, such as 6 NT or 6♦ and it is probably cold if they do so, since pd seems to have very little if any. 5d+3h+3s+1cl or 4d+4s+3h+2cl or different combo of tricks. Good luck to you discarding on diamonds. You give declarer so much info that any end play, squeeze will be performed easily.

And LHO, who is a very good player, probably wanted the hog the hand or did not trust their own slam bidding tools and made a bold bid and already put themselves in a bad contract even if it is making.

[akwoo]

 whereagles, on 2014-November-26, 05:02, said:

Well, I really don't think 6♣= is going to be a good score for our side. Which is why I would dbl.

Maybe I'm wrong and 6NT is cold and the field is playing it. But I doubt.

Are you really thinking that your side can make some part score?

If 6 ♣ = is a bad score for your side, then by the same reasoning, 6 ♣ -1 will be just as good a score for your side as 6♣X -1.

It's not the amount of downside that's important, but rather the ratio of upside to downside.

[Phil]

 MrAce, on 2014-November-26, 12:52, said:

Arend, you are looking at it in a vacuum. We all have been in this position so many times. Double will achieve either;

a-turn 100 to 200
b-doubled slam making which was always making.
c-doubled slam making when it could be defeated
d-they bid something else, such as 6 NT or 6♦ and it is probably cold if they do so, since pd seems to have very little if any. 5d+3h+3s+1cl or 4d+4s+3h+2cl or different combo of tricks. Good luck to you discarding on diamonds. You give declarer so much info that any end play, squeeze will be performed easily.

And LHO, who is a very good player, probably wanted the hog the hand or did not trust their own slam bidding tools and made a bold bid and already put themselves in a bad contract even if it is making.

Arend is looking at this clearly.

a-turn 100 to 200 (great, we are turning an average plus into a top)
b-doubled slam making which was always making. (unfortunate, but we are probably turning a 10% board into a zero)
c-doubled slam making when it could be defeated (pretty inconceivable).
d-they bid something else, such as 6 NT or 6♦ and it is probably cold if they do so (even more inconceivable. Who will pull? The balanced 20 or the hand with the short diamonds?)

But don't forget:

e-the other tables are in 3N going down, and we are getting a much better bonus (per 'a' above).

[MrAce]

 Phil, on 2014-November-26, 13:05, said:

Arend is looking at this clearly.

a-turn 100 to 200 (great, we are turning an average plus into a top)
b-doubled slam making which was always making. (unfortunate, but we are probably turning a 10% board into a zero)
c-doubled slam making when it could be defeated (pretty inconceivable).
d-they bid something else, such as 6 NT or 6♦ and it is probably cold if they do so (even more inconceivable. Who will pull? The balanced 20 or the hand with the short diamonds?)

But don't forget:

e-the other tables are in 3N going down, and we are getting a much better bonus (per 'a' above).

It's not really unfortunate. It happens all the time. Especially when it is your LHO who opened 2 NT. Any Axx- AT-Qx with LHO will do it. I mean you can sit and excuse yourself saying that it is unfortunate but do not expect others to see it the way you see it. Do not tell me people don't bid 6 with a suit of Axxxxx vs a 2 NT opener. They don't do it very often but the odds that they would do vs a weak player in order to hog the hand or prevent an accident are increased. Or they may be simply guessing that pd will hold some values in club suit. Or they may be in need of a good board. Or RHO may be frustrated with his pd the previous round and trying silly things.

And you contradict yourself when you say "probably turning % 10 to %0" Because if this is the case, double is turning %90 to %100. I mean LOL...when they go down doubled it becomes an average score turning into a top, but when they make %10 to %0? Cmon now, you can make better replies than that.

EDIT: In fact I do not see much of a good reason, if any, for doubling. Look at your hand, if it is bad slam you are in good shape for going plus. If it is a slam that everyone will bid, it may be making, if not it may be makeable after double. Ohh and about running to 6♦ or 6 NT, it does not matter whether they can or not, you are giving them a life out of nowhere. There is a good chance that they already ended up in bad slam and with slow bidding other pairs ended up in 6♦ or 6 NT making, which means your double (if it does not let them make due to dbl and get a good zero) will achieve turning %90 to %100 at best.

[PhantomSac]

Timo is exactly right, if when we double and it is cold we are turning a 10 % into a zero, that indirectly means that doubling is terrible.

[ArtK78]

 cherdano, on 2014-November-26, 12:32, said:

If RHO has Q-8th and LHO has Ax, then the odds are 7:1 that RHO has the T. I am happy to double with these odds.

If I had meant to say that RHO held QT eighth of clubs, I would have said so. I said Q eighth, which means to me that he does not have the ten. Therefore, the odds are zero that RHO has the 10, because I said that he does not have the 10.

I understand that this means that LHO has AT doubleton (unless he opened 2NT with a singleton club), and that declarer has a 100% safety play in the club suit to guard against me holding all 3 clubs (barring an extremely unlikely ruff if my partner wins a singleton J or K of clubs on the first round of clubs). But we have all seen players miss the safety play. That certainly won't happen if we double.

Of course, as has been pointed out, perhaps it is LHO who has the club A - specifically, ATxxxxxx. Again, he has a 100% safety play* of low towards the Q. And again, we have all seen players get this wrong. But if we double, declarer can hardly go wrong.

*Barring a ruff.

[PhantomSac]

 ArtK78, on 2014-November-26, 14:22, said:

I understand that this means that LHO has AT doubleton (unless he opened 2NT with a singleton club), and that declarer has a 100% safety play in the club suit to guard against me holding all 3 clubs (barring an extremely unlikely ruff if my partner wins a singleton J or K of clubs on the first round of clubs). But we have all seen players miss the safety play. That certainly won't happen if we double.

Was gonna say at MP obv no one should safety play and lose an overtrick vs stiff k on their right. However stiff K is not that much more likely than void anyways, and the added value of the overtrick is much less than the cost of going down unless a large portion of the field is in slam. So it's probably almost always right to safety play at MP in this spot, interesting, never thought about that.

Of course this analysis assumes they would never double with KJ9 of clubs which before this thread I woulda assumed lol. If your opp might double then adjust accordingly.

Sry for random tangent.

[ThymePuns]

I have good trump so partner has an obvious double.

[Phil]

 MrAce, on 2014-November-26, 13:16, said:

And you contradict yourself when you say "probably turning % 10 to %0" Because if this is the case, double is turning %90 to %100. I mean LOL...when they go down doubled it becomes an average score turning into a top, but when they make %10 to %0? Cmon now, you can make better replies than that. [img]

These aren't reciprocal. Those that defend 3N or 4N won't the opportunity to double for a good score when they are going down.

Does anyone really think this is a normal auction? (LOL?)

[whereagles]

 akwoo, on 2014-November-26, 12:56, said:

If 6 ♣ = is a bad score for your side, then by the same reasoning, 6 ♣ -1 will be just as good a score for your side as 6♣X -1.

Doubling can beat those that might go down in 6-something undoubled. At IMPs doubling is probably even better, as it can go 2 down on a good day.

[eagles123]

well i thought for a bit but decided to pass... LHO raised to 7!

this was the full hand:

https://app.pianola....67/Travellers/9

[the hog]

" East very strong."
roflmao, yes sure!

[eagles123]

 the hog, on 2014-November-26, 18:05, said:

" East very strong."
roflmao, yes sure!

better than u anyway

[akwoo]

 whereagles, on 2014-November-26, 16:24, said:

Doubling can beat those that might go down in 6-something undoubled. At IMPs doubling is probably even better, as it can go 2 down on a good day.

I just don't see a situation where the difference between +100 and +200 is bigger than the difference between -1370 and -1540. Other than 6♣ (which counts equally on both sides), there are no likely scores between +100 and +200 (or between +200 and +500), whereas there is one fairly likely score between -1370 and -1540, which is -1440.

(The idea that anyone is going down in 3N or 4N is even more delusional than the idea that someone is making a part score your way. And I say this even having seen the results, where someone did go down in 3N!)

Of course, if you're playing in a small weak field, anything goes, and you know your field better than I do.

[lrussell]

You pass for 3 reasons:
1. You don't want to tell them how to play the clubs. For example:
♣Q2
♣A1087654
There are two equally good (72%) ways to play clubs for one loser:
a) Low to ♣Q
b) ♣2 from dummy inserting the ♣10
There are other combinations where a double will help declarer play the suit.

2. A weird auction for sure. 6♣ down is likely the same MP as 6♣-X down. Why bother?

3. You don't want them to run to anything. Take your top.

[jdgalt]

Pass. Double will give away the hand.

Give me an ace somewhere, or four clubs instead of three, and I'll double.

[MrAce]

 Phil, on 2014-November-26, 16:04, said:

These aren't reciprocal. Those that defend 3N or 4N won't the opportunity to double for a good score when they are going down.

Does anyone really think this is a normal auction? (LOL?)

I think it is pretty odd that you are thinking about 3 or 4 NT, and somehow it is going down, and you are trying to gain by doubling them with the hope that this hand plays 3-4 NT and everyone goes down, probably more down than 5♣ while you take them down doubled. Ignoring much more probable scenarios. I can bet my paycheck (which won't make you rich but still) the probability of 2 NT opener showing up with a club honor, or probability of them already being in a wrong slam, or probability of them making slam after your double, or your double adding very little to our score...sum of all these outnumbers the probability of them going down in 3 NT, which by the way has to take under tricks as equal or worse than 6♣ in order to justify the double.

This is not a normal auction. But what does this add to your argument anyway?

[Phil]

 MrAce, on 2014-November-26, 18:37, said:

I think it is pretty odd that you are thinking about 3 or 4 NT, and somehow it is going down, and you are trying to gain by doubling them with the hope that this hand plays 3-4 NT and everyone goes down, probably more down than 5♣ while you take them down doubled. Ignoring much more probable scenarios. I can bet my paycheck (which won't make you rich but still) the probability of 2 NT opener showing up with a club honor, or probability of them already being in a wrong slam, or probability of them making slam after your double, or your double adding very little to our score...sum of all these outnumbers the probability of them going down in 3 NT, which by the way has to take under tricks as equal or worse than 6♣ in order to justify the double.

This is not a normal auction. But what does this add to your argument anyway?

In a matchpoint event, wouldn't you expect that good portion of the field will play some number of NT? We have no real idea about what our RHO holds - I mean, what kind of hand passes and then suddenly jumps to slam? A flawed preempt? Ok, but this means different things to different people, and we can both choose hands to prove our point and what this shows.

Im really not convinced that 3 or 4N is making, and this is what is the key to my argument.

If the clubs are on our right, then its a very good chance that NY makes, even on power. If one club honor is on our left, 3N could still go down - take the dreaded Qx opp ATxxxxx that everyone seems so worried about. Clearly declarer isn't burning entries to lead toward the Q, so may just go down on completely normal play. If we are pushing the board with tables defending NT, we pick up one matchpoint against every table that isn't doubling. I'm really not disagreeing that there's a club honor on our left, but I wpuld suggest it will frequently be a doubleton. I do take issue with a lot of constructions where it affects declarer's play.

Again, when we double, we are turning a pretty bad board into a zero when its wrong. If everyone else defends 3N and it makes, it makes little difference if we double or not - we are getting a top or a bottom defending on the success of the slam. Yes, doubling makes it slightly more likely that they will make slam, and maybe I am underestimating this, or maybe you have a selective memory about when it was wrong. The important comparisons are when other tables are beating 3N, and we can increase the penalty by doubling.

[PhantomSac]

 Phil, on 2014-November-26, 19:57, said:

The important comparisons are when other tables are beating 3N, and we can increase the penalty by doubling.

It is really strange to me to think that is what is important. Nothing about our hand or this auction suggests that we are beating 3N and 6C is down the same amount of tricks. There is a lot to suggest that they might be able to run effectively or make 6C X after our double and not without it. I do agree that the main cases are not when we double and they make it when they were always cold though. I would suggest that the chances of [they run effectively] + [they make when they otherwise wouldn't have] >>>>>>>> [we are beating 3N and 6C one trick.]

Edit: Also glad to see you back posting! Hope it does not come off like I am trying to start a fight immediately This is one of the first times in a long time I can remember strongly disagreeing with CHERDANO about anything. Probably it does not matter much what we do but the classical school of bridge would definitely find it unfathomable to be doubling in this kinda spot. I like evolving from that but I think in this case they're right.

[tnzdet]

Would really like to see the 2NT hand. This opening after P-P-P is very dangerous. 2NT played with a dead dummy is odds on to be down one or two or on a bad day more. So we must assume the 2NT is very close to the ole fashion Goren Demand 2C bid promising 5+ sure tricks. West very likely had a 3C preempt and for some reason did not make it at his first turn to bid. West will have the missing honors in the club suit and most likely a 9 or 10 card fit with east and I'm guessing west started with 8 club cards had a cramp and could not get the 5c card to the table. So we could be dealing with anything here from a DBL and set to an easy save in 6 of a Major. I will side with the other entries here because we probably are playing against a pair we haven't seen before. And, at the 6/7lvl if it is a bad slam you will gain most Matchpoints by playing good defense without adding in the DBLE. Pass is a real good choice. Now for the however. to be a non stoppable slam, east has to hold both the A Q or the A10x of clubs and must be able to communicate with the west hand in order to run a finesses; barring that you are guaranteed two trump tricks if nothing else. So no one can complain if you go for the Matchpoints and DBLE. That's at Matchpoints or maybe BAM or IMPs In any team event. Pass is very solid and very required. The potential loss in a team event far out weighs any possible gain.