[awm]

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IMPs, strong team game. ♦8 is lead to dummy's ace and East's nine. Ace and king of trumps, West playing the ♠8 and then discarding the ♦5. What now?

[FrancesHinden]

Well, as a very simple estimate, ruffing the heart queen down in 3 is approx 1/3
Clubs 3-3 is approx 1/3
Neither of those coming in is 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9, so that combined line is about 5/9.
I don't think that hearts are 1-6 because LHO is more likely to have led a singleton.

The heart finesse is a little over 50% (West has the short spades). So these two lines are very close.
However, my 1/3 estimate is low compared to the actual odds, so I go with the two-pronged approach.

[kenrexford]

Another option is to try Ace King in club. If West drops the Jack and is not playing really deep, you can cash the 10 and then cross to Dummy to pitch the diamond. If the Jack doesn't drop, you can then hook. The odds of the Jack dropping doubleton West is probably higher than stiff or void East, and probably by more than West dropping Jack from fourth.

[awm]

kenrexford, on 2014-September-13, 14:13, said:

Another option is to try Ace King in club. If West drops the Jack and is not playing really deep, you can cash the 10 and then cross to Dummy to pitch the diamond. If the Jack doesn't drop, you can then hook. The odds of the Jack dropping doubleton West is probably higher than stiff or void East, and probably by more than West dropping Jack from fourth.

Not by my calculations. Given spades 1-3, there are 12 and 10 empty spaces in the two hands. The odds of a particular 5-1 club break would be:

12 * 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 10 / 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17

The odds of a particular 2-4 club break would be:

12 * 11 * 10 * 9 * 8 * 7 / 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17

So the ratio of a particular 5-1 break to a particular 2-4 break is 10:7. We are interested in specifically 5-1 breaks where the jack is not singleton (of which there are five), and in 2-4 where the jack is doubleton (of which there are also five).

Thus it seems you are more likely to go down by cashing ♣AK and getting ruffed, than you are to find Jx onside and make. Of course most of the time neither of these events happen and you are reduced to the heart finesse (which is actually better than 50% odds given the spade break).

[benlessard]

There is a red flag in the bidding for me here, the D lead despite north bypass of a club control and east failure to X 4D. IMO it strongly suggest that west has the J of clubs and the hes likely to have the QH too.

[MrAce]

benlessard, on 2014-September-14, 12:11, said:

There is a red flag in the bidding for me here, the D lead despite north bypass of a club control and east failure to X 4D. IMO it strongly suggest that west has the J of clubs and the hes likely to have the QH too.

I am % 100 confident that what you saw as a "red flag" and what it "strongly suggests" is nothing more than your own shadow. Especially the analyse of non club lead and whereabouts of club J is really funny.

[buha]

FrancesHinden, on 2014-September-13, 12:23, said:

Well, as a very simple estimate, ruffing the heart queen down in 3 is approx 1/3
Clubs 3-3 is approx 1/3
Neither of those coming in is 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9, so that combined line is about 5/9.
I don't think that hearts are 1-6 because LHO is more likely to have led a singleton.

The heart finesse is a little over 50% (West has the short spades). So these two lines are very close.
However, my 1/3 estimate is low compared to the actual odds, so I go with the two-pronged approach.

Plus the squeeze

[buha]

FrancesHinden, on 2014-September-13, 12:23, said:

Well, as a very simple estimate, ruffing the heart queen down in 3 is approx 1/3
Clubs 3-3 is approx 1/3
Neither of those coming in is 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9, so that combined line is about 5/9.
I don't think that hearts are 1-6 because LHO is more likely to have led a singleton.

The heart finesse is a little over 50% (West has the short spades). So these two lines are very close.
However, my 1/3 estimate is low compared to the actual odds, so I go with the two-pronged approach.

Plus the squeeze

[manudude03]

buha, on 2014-September-14, 16:26, said:

Plus the squeeze

Welcome to the forums. Unfortunately on this hand, the squeeze could never work as you can't cash enough winners for a squeeze without the count (you would have to give up a trump before you can run them, and as soon as you do, they win and cash a diamond).

Well, ok, there is a very remote squeeze, but it would require diamonds to break 8-1 with West leading the 8 from KQJT8753, not likely, but if it did happen, the squeeze would have to be in diamonds, and clubs or hearts (West can't have both rounded suits or there would be too many cards, and if East had them, dummy would be squeezed first).

That's enough squeeze madness for me tonight

[msjennifer]

To me it appears,West has 5 diamonds and one spade.His heart and club holdings are unknown.If he has Qxx in hearts then it will come down when the third round is ruffed ,a fact which will occur if he holds xxxx in hearts as it will then come down from East.If nothing happens then it is very likely that clubs will be 3-3 and you can overtake the club ten and take the discard on the thirteenth club.

[whereagles]

I would try the heart ruff line. That has plans (b) [2-2 trumps] and (c.) [3-3- clubs] in reserve.

[gordontd]

whereagles, on 2014-September-15, 07:38, said:

I would try the heart ruff line. That has plans (b) [2-2 trumps] and (c.) [3-3- clubs] in reserve.

Plan B has already failed.

[awm]

FrancesHinden, on 2014-September-13, 12:23, said:

Well, as a very simple estimate, ruffing the heart queen down in 3 is approx 1/3
Clubs 3-3 is approx 1/3
Neither of those coming in is 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9, so that combined line is about 5/9.
I don't think that hearts are 1-6 because LHO is more likely to have led a singleton.

The heart finesse is a little over 50% (West has the short spades). So these two lines are very close.
However, my 1/3 estimate is low compared to the actual odds, so I go with the two-pronged approach.

One slight issue -- if east has 2 hearts lacking the queen, he can pitch a club from three on the third heart. This seems to lower the odds a bit, possibly enough that a finesse overtakes the line.

[wynsten]

kenrexford, on 2014-September-13, 14:13, said:

Another option is to try Ace King in club. If West drops the Jack and is not playing really deep, you can cash the 10 and then cross to Dummy to pitch the diamond. If the Jack doesn't drop, you can then hook. The odds of the Jack dropping doubleton West is probably higher than stiff or void East, and probably by more than West dropping Jack from fourth.

Seems best to me - but what about the interesting case - Jack drops in two rounds from the EAST hand? Could he be falsecarding from three clubs while holding the Queen of hearts? Personally I'd believe the Jack, and take the heart finesse, and congratulate him on a fine play if he tricked me. Kind of a restricted choice philosophy - did he have to play the Jack, or was it a choice?

[benlessard]

Im surprised nobody take the lead into account. Why would west make an agressive lead under a D honnor here ? North didnt show a control in clubs and didnt a show a real suit.

Im more agressive than passive when it come to leads but here i wouldnt lead under Hxxxx, Hxxx if I have a safe alternative. In fact when I get low spot lead like this vs top notch players I tend to finesse in S one way or another (but not here obv). The 52-48% odds no longer applies when you get a non-S lead.

[whereagles]

gordontd, on 2014-September-15, 07:54, said:

Plan B has already failed.

I replied to the poll before reading the rest.. lol.

[whereagles]

benlessard, on 2014-September-15, 09:39, said:

Im surprised nobody take the lead into account. Why would west make an agressive lead under a D honnor here ?

Black suit lead is in principle out of the picture. Between a diamond and a heart, I would say (on restricted choice grounds) that leading one would imply an unattractive holding in the other.

So if LHO likes aggressive leads, odds are he hasn't got the heart queen. If he likes passive leads, he probably has honors in both reds.

[benlessard]

Why club is out ? with 98x 987x etc 876 clubs look safer than D for me. Note partner didnt X 4D too. With Qxx of S he might X agressively to get the D lead.

[PhilKing]

There is nothing "safe" about making a passive club lead on this auction.

[MrAce]

benlessard, on 2014-September-15, 11:08, said:

Why club is out ? with 98x 987x etc 876 clubs look safer than D for me. Note partner didnt X 4D too. With Qxx of S he might X agressively to get the D lead.

LOL ...Club is the last suit you want to lead. In fact I would think that it would not even occur to to anyone, and this is why it did not occur to anyone who replied, to have a strong clue, or any clue for that matter, from the non-club lead.

The conclusion you came to about the club suit and/or failure to lead is way off. What does it tell you, when one of them denies a control in one suit and the other one still keeps on cueing and eventually lands on slam? Besides the fact that some people do not even cue w/o first control. Also besides the fact that N opened 1♣ and we know he has 3-4-5 clubs. The conclusion regarding the whereabouts of ♥Q, due to the lead, is not better than saying "play W for Q on cloudy days" Failure to dbl an artificial bid does not really mean much. People do not dbl with suits like Qxxx QJxx. In fact most avoid to dbl even with much better suits due to the fact that it gives extra space to opponents and/or it helps opps reevaluate in bidding and play better during declaring more than it helps pd. But if you are going to give too much credit to the failure of doubles, keep in mind that E also failed to dbl 5♥.
Do you think Adam or Frances would not take it into account, had there been such a "red flag" as you claimed and that it "strongly suggests" something other than probably nothing?

PhilKing, on 2014-September-15, 13:07, said:

There is nothing "safe" about making a passive club lead on this auction.