[Jinksy]

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I've had to make up the pip cards, but I think the Cs are right.

W leads a ♥.

Stress and nervous tension are now serious social problems in all parts of the galaxy and it is in order that this situation should not be in any way exacerbated that the following facts will now be revealed in advance: both the A♦ and the Q♠ are onside, so you'll probably make this on any plausible line.

Nonetheless, with apologies to Douglas Adams, what would the best line have been had you not known that?

[dicklont]

I would draw trumps and play a diamond to the king, when ♦A is off side I won't make the contract. West takes ♦A and I regain the lead, let's say with ♠A.
Now cash ♣A and ♦K and run all the hearts, when noone discards ♣K I now play the small spade.
When west holds ♠Q and ♣K this works very well.
When west holds ♠Q but not ♣K the finesse wins, but when east has the vital cards I must drop ♠Q.
So who knows the odds? This comes down to table feel.
When east is comfortable all the time, he is either a very good defender or he has no problem discarding which means he has the ♣K, not ♠Q, so I finesse. When he's not comfortable I try to drop the queen, in the meantime boosting my ego with a succesful squeeze
When I go down I will congratulate east with his defensive skills, try to hide my frustration en go back to the intermediate/advanced forum.

[MrAce]

dicklont, on 2014-September-11, 09:58, said:

I would draw trumps and play a diamond to the king, when ♦A is off side I won't make the contract. West takes ♦A and I regain the lead, let's say with ♠A.
Now cash ♣A and ♦K and run all the hearts, when noone discards ♣K I now play the small spade.
When west holds ♠Q and ♣K this works very well.
When west holds ♠Q but not ♣K the finesse wins, but when east has the vital cards I must drop ♠Q.
So who knows the odds? This comes down to table feel.
When east is comfortable all the time, he is either a very good defender or he has no problem discarding which means he has the ♣K, not ♠Q, so I finesse. When he's not comfortable I try to drop the queen, in the meantime boosting my ego with a succesful squeeze
When I go down I will congratulate east with his defensive skills, try to hide my frustration en go back to the intermediate/advanced forum.

If you decided to play on diamond A on, after they win ♦A and you win the return (let's say spade A) alternative line to cashing the ♣A and ♦K, is to cash ♦ K and cash 2nd ♠ honor to see of anyone has Qx.If not ruff 3rd ♠ to see if anyone has Qxx. If still did not drop cash all your trumps to squeeze if W holds long spades + the ♣K. I don't think your method of table feel will help vs expert opps. They will not wait what to discard until you come to last few cards. They usually will take their time to analyze the position and it is a very easy position for any expert East to figure and come down to ♠Qx and ♣K smoothly.

I can't tell the exact odds of course but all I know is that the alternative line has no guessing at the end. It is definitely better than spade finesse, which is % 50. If I am not wrong W holding Q of spades 4th or 5th or 6th = %31.5 roughly. And I think we need to divide this by 2 because half of the time he will also hold ♣K, which brings the failure of cashing AK pades and ruffing one, down to apprx %15, while spade finesse failure (or win) odds are % 50. (I am not taking into consideration that we also needed ♦A onside, since we already played it and it was on)

You will have to ask the odds of cashing ♣ A and ♦K to another player here, because it includes guessing at the end. I am not good at that. Hell, I am not even sure what I wrote overall is correct or not. having not sipped my first coffee yet

[dicklont]

MrAce, on 2014-September-11, 11:20, said:

If you decided to play on diamond A on, after they win ♦A and you win the return (let's say spade A) alternative line to cashing the ♣A and ♦K is to cash ♦ K and cash 2nd ♠ honor to see of anyone has Qx.If not ruff 3rd ♠ to see if anyone has Qxx. If still did not drop cash all your trumps to squeeze if W holds long spades + the ♣K.

That's a much nicer line. Thanks.
So expert defense might play clubs not spades after the ♦A to restrict out choices.

[benlessard]

playing for the squeeze ♠Qxx or less or LHO having the Qxxx+ and and the K clubs is 51-52
%. However i think that in IRL its even better because after the Ad he will switch clubs more often without the K♣ than with it. However hes more likely to lead (T1) a S without the Q than with it so its not clear.

Note that you should start with the J hoping West duck the Da. It will give you some additionnal strip and endplay chances.