[nige1]

manudude03, on 2014-August-28, 18:39, said:

1st seat favorable, MPs scoring.
I'll split this into 2 polls, one for standard methods, and one for the system in use.
For better or worse (mostly worse), we were playing a strong club system without the precision 2C opening, so 1D would have to cater for all opening club hands as well as the diamond hands (2D opening is multi, this hand wouldn't cover either option). 3NT would have been a specific ace ask. With all that in mind, what do you open?

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IMO, at MPs, the danger of opening 4♦/5♦ is that you miss 3N.

• Mandud03 ♣ system: 1♦ = 10, 3♦ = 9, 4♦ = 8, 5♦ = 7.
• "Standard" system: 3N = 10, 1♦ = 9, 3♦ = 8, 4♦ = 7, 5♦ = 6.

[Zelandakh]

Lord Molyb, on 2014-September-01, 19:06, said:

conveniently, gambling 3NT will get you to the cold 6♦ 100% of the time and avoid the questionable 7♦ at the same time. I think with this hand, opening 1♦ was ok.

Not so sure about that. Once you find out about the spade "singleton" opposite are you not thinking that you could set up the ♠J with the heart finesse as a backup?

[billw55]

Lord Molyb, on 2014-September-01, 19:06, said:

conveniently, gambling 3NT will get you to the cold 6♦ 6NT 100% of the time and avoid the questionable 7♦ at the same time.

Fixed. Partner can count 12 tricks with diamonds breaking. It is matchpoints after all.

[PhantomSac]

billw55, on 2014-September-02, 06:47, said:

Fixed. Partner can count 12 tricks with diamonds breaking. It is matchpoints after all.

7D has a higher percentage of making than 6N. And when both are down 7D will go down less, beating the people in 6N.

[billw55]

PhantomSac, on 2014-September-02, 12:20, said:

7D has a higher percentage of making than 6N. And when both are down 7D will go down less, beating the people in 6N.

Not sure I follow. I was assuming that the gambling 3NT showed zero outside values.

[PhantomSac]

billw55, on 2014-September-02, 13:34, said:

Not sure I follow. I was assuming that the gambling 3NT showed zero outside values.

I mean on this hand. Even without any possibility of ruffing out spades you can make on 3-3 clubs or the heart hook which is roughly the same chance as a 3-2 break already. You can do better though the play will be complicated since you squeeze dummy if you play a third trump.

[benlessard]

Maybe the timing is right for a psych. If your like me and in 1st seat its "rarely psych rather than never psych" than I think the timing is right you are W vs red, you have a parachute suit and you dont have a good "normal" bid. This is a very random auction however so its for sure running score and who you are playing agaisnt is everything and its not going to be for everyone taste. I think 1H/1S/1Nt are all fine at this vul but you should stick to your prefered style of psych. Overall in my career I was pretty lucky with my psych and pretty unlucky against them so when it come to psych Im biased and I think rarely is better than never.

[Zelandakh]

benlessard, on 2014-September-02, 15:11, said:

Maybe the timing is right for a psych.

So you open 1♠ and partner responds with some forcing raise, say 2NT or 4♦. How are you planning to extricate yourself from here?

[benlessard]

Zelandakh, on 2014-September-03, 01:57, said:

So you open 1♠ and partner responds with some forcing raise, say 2NT or 4♦. How are you planning to extricate yourself from here?

ill pass and take my bad score hoping that in the long run it will be less than the good score I get when my psych is working.

[ArtK78]

manudude03, on 2014-September-01, 10:37, said:

Thanks for the replies. I decided to open 1D. Partner has somewhere in the region of AJT9x AQx J AKQx, and had the everyday auction of 1D-(1S)-P-(P)-2D-(P)-6NT, just making when partner took "insurance" by giving up a spade. Diamonds were 3-2.

I don't understand. Even if you get a spade lead into the AJT9x, giving up a spade only assures you of 3 spades, 1 heart, 3 diamonds and 3 clubs. Giving up a spade increases your chances of making 12 tricks, but gives up on 13. After a spade lead to an honor and your ace, to make 12 tricks with diamonds not breaking you would need 2 of the following three things:

(1) 3-3 clubs
(2) 4-4 spades
(3) Heart K onside.

I don't believe there are any real squeeze chances here, but maybe there are some remote possibilities of a squeeze if one person guards three suits.

On a rounded suit lead, giving up a spade might give you some additional chances of making on a squeeze or incredibly favorable lie of the spade suit, but the additional chance of making gained at the cost of an overtrick is so much less than a 3-2 diamond break that it is not worth it at matchpoints. For it to be right to give up a spade on, say, a club lead, you would have to be almost certain that no other pair was in 6NT.

Even at IMPs it might be wrong to duck a trick early. You might be giving up an IMP in return for a very slightly increased chance of making. Now, it is almost always right to play safe when facing IMP odds of 13-1 or so. But it is not clear that you are gaining enough of a benefit by ducking a trick here to give away an IMP even at those odds.