[MrAce]

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You opened 2♦ weak, and pd due to a momentarily insanity bid 4♦ which ended the auction ( this is actually how the auction went at the table, not a make up auction)

Opponents are EXPERT and playing 3/5 leads and std signals primary signal being count. IMP.

T1-They led ♣ 2, which went to RHO's A,
T2-RHO played ♣6 you ruffed and LHO played 3.
T3,4 - You played 2 rounds of diamonds ending in hand (south) and saw LHO with stiff T and RHO Qx
T5- You played a ♥ to Q which won, RHO dropping the T
T6- You cashed ♥ A, and RHO discarded ♣ 9
T7- You played 3rd ♥, RHO discarded ♣ 7 and LHO won
T8-LHO played small spade, your decision time, what do you play ?

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[ahydra]

This looks like a pure guess :/

West has shown up with what looks like 5 HCPs so far (HK and CQ), and East 6 (CA, DQ), with SAQ somewhere.

West looks like 3415 making East 5125. So although East is more likely to have the spades it's far too close to say.

I'll duck. West might have led a spade from Qxx but not from Axx and that's about all I have to go on. (Perhaps the C9 is also suit pref for spades?)

ahydra

[mikeh]

Deleted...I misread the trump layout and was playing w for 2=4=2=5

[kuhchung]

Wow is this N/B?

I'm going to fly K. LHO has a full count of my hand, and left to my own devices, I have no choice but to play a spade to the K. He's giving me a losing option. I hope. I hope.

[ahydra]

I just noticed this is in the N/B forum (thought it was the expert forum when I posted). Wonder if I missed something obvious? Or was it accidentally posted in the wrong forum, given opps are experts?

ahydra

[wank]

mrace is from turkey. even the novices are experts there.

[wanoff]

It doesn't look like a guess, but then if you consider the Grosvenor, maybe it is.

[MrAce]

Last night i posted different topics to different forums. This was intended to be posted in I/A forum. I apologize for this, my bad.

There are different ways to take hints for your guesses. Usually the auction helps. Then we try count the hcps and shapes of opponents to make a better guess.

This one however, is about the actions opponents have taken/not taken.

LHO saw your exact 6 cards ♦, Jxx ♥ and singleton ♣ K. So he is basically defending double dummy at this point.

Why did he play small spade instead of simply exiting with his last ♥ ? This is the key question you should be asking to yourself, it is not as hard as you guys think it is, if you ask the right question to yourself. This is the hand i played yesterday vs Pavliceks, the last board of 24 boards game.

I think after the tips i have given, this topic maybe eligible for this forum. Take it on from here please

EDIT : Kuhchung got it right. I just saw it.

LHO could have easily exit with heart and put you in a no winning position if East has the A. However if he does that, you will have no option other than playing a spade to K. Thus he does not want you to do that, by creating a losing option. Do not forget i mentioned that your opponents are EXPERTS.

wank, on 2014-March-18, 13:14, said:

mrace is from turkey. even the novices are experts there.

Don't mess with Turks now !!!

[StevenG]

Is this inference completely solid? If declarer started with JTx, surely he might as easily run the Jack, hoping the Queen is onside. In which case, West leading small from the Queen would equally provide a losing option. West won't lead small from QT, but will from AT, so the odds favour MrAce's line, but I don't think it certain.

[kuhchung]

StevenG, on 2014-March-19, 09:50, said:

Is this inference completely solid? If declarer started with JTx, surely he might as easily run the Jack, hoping the Queen is onside. In which case, West leading small from the Queen would equally provide a losing option. West won't lead small from QT, but will from AT, so the odds favour MrAce's line, but I don't think it certain.

I thought about that, but Jxx is a lot more likely than JTx. Plus, you can still exit the heart and choose to duck if declarer does table the SJ. You both have a full count, and there's no more inferences to be drawn, so you don't need to put declarer to an early guess with no information or something

[MrAce]

StevenG, on 2014-March-19, 09:50, said:

Is this inference completely solid? If declarer started with JTx, surely he might as easily run the Jack, hoping the Queen is onside. In which case, West leading small from the Queen would equally provide a losing option. West won't lead small from QT, but will from AT, so the odds favour MrAce's line, but I don't think it certain.

Heh, no, it is way far more than the odds of W playing low from AT but not QT.


- When declarer holds JTx, he already has a losing option when W exits with ♥, thus playing small from Qxx, even if declarer has specific JTx, West is not creating any extra losing option technically. However it may have deceptive effect

- Playing low from Qxx is a good attempt to give life to a dead contract when pd holds ATx, even if declarer goes wrong, you gain nothing because he was going down anyway.

- There is only and only 1 situation, where declarer can not go wrong and/or does not have a losing option if you leave him by himself, and west can create a losing option by playing the spade suit