[hrothgar]

Very interesting to watch the developments in the Republic of Crimea.
I think that most anyone would agree that there's been a Russian supported coup.

I hope that the government of Ukraine is intelligent enough to let this one go.
It's almost unimaginable that the Russian government would give up Sevastopol and this isn't a conflict that the Ukraine can win.

Equally important, Putin's naked power grab is almost certainly going to come back to haunt him.

* I can't imagine anyone going along with his free trade zone after this type of incident
* Moreover, he just pissed away his 50 billion dollar coming out party in Sochi.

I would think that the best option for the Ukraine is to launch furious diplomatic protests, while using this to try to unify the Western half of the country with the rump Russians left in Ukraine.

In the mean time, the Russians get to keep their port, but they inherit an economic basket case.

I think that all the significant risks for the Ukraine involve getting provoked into a military conflict
Let's hope that this doesn't happen

[PassedOut]

Very interesting, but scary. Your analysis seems right on the mark to me. Knock on wood...

[32519]

Not entirely sure if I agree with you. S'far as I understand all the protests, a large portion of the Ukraine want to join the Eurozone. But there is no way that the Eurozone can carry another effectively bankrupt nation. Who knows what especially the Germans think of the latest developments? They may even be relieved?

[hrothgar]

32519, on 2014-March-01, 12:06, said:

Not entirely sure if I agree with you.

So you are saying that a war would be a good thing, then?

[Aberlour10]

This conflict cant be seen only in black and white categories. IMO. Its a fact that there are not only democrats in Kiev's new goverment but the Neo-Nazi groups "Svoboda" and "Right Sector" too. One of the first moves of this goverment was the cut of russian language as a second official language, that was a strong signal. ( Only 10% of crimea population speaks Ukrainian). The russian majority in Crimea have justified concerns what will happen with their autonomy/self-goverment. What the german thinks about? Many commenators forsee the exactly same development that was happen with Kosovo. >>>Putin will not a annex Crimea but accept it as some kind of protectorate.

[Hanoi5]

So, you're saying Putin got Yanukovich out of his post so that a turmoil was created in the country of Ukrania and he can annex Crimea to Russia?

The western response to this conflict will probably be the same as to what happened in Georgia some years ago...

[andrei]

Aberlour10, on 2014-March-01, 16:20, said:

One of the first moves of this goverment was the cut of russian language as a second official language, that was a strong signal. ( Only 10% of crimea population speaks Ukrainian).

Russian was never an official language in Ukraine, since it became independent

[mike777]

Yet another European country invaded by fascists.

I await to see European response.

Guys this is a military conflict. It is there now.


I am a bit surprised to see an European country defend itself is such a mild fashion compared to Asian countries but it is early. OTOH the world the entire world has known this scenario for years and years.

[32519]

hrothgar, on 2014-March-01, 12:08, said:

So you are saying that a war would be a good thing, then?

War is never a good thing. The problem is nations like the USA who always seem to be meddling in the conflict of others. If that happens here, war is certainly possible.

[mike777]

32519, on 2014-March-02, 00:43, said:

War is never a good thing. The problem is nations like the USA who always seem to be meddling in the conflict of others. If that happens here, war is certainly possible.

I think you raised the most important point.

In any event it will be interesting if they raise up against fascists and they did in Asia

It will be interesting to see European response to an invasion in the heart of Europe. neither west or east.


I hope you accept that there are worse things then war if not ok...

I agree the usa meddling in the conflicts of others....often...very often.

[Aberlour10]

andrei, on 2014-March-02, 00:15, said:

Russian was never an official language in Ukraine, since it became independent

Official at the regional level

Quote

In August 2012, a law on regional languages entitled any local language spoken by at least a 10% minority be declared official within that area.^[23] Russian was within weeks declared as a regional language in several southern and eastern oblasts and cities.^[24] On 23 February 2014, the law on regional languages was abolished, making Ukrainian the sole state language at all levels.

[Winstonm]

There is no need for escalation - better for Putin and Russia to endure the consequences of chosen actions.

[mikeh]

I read an analysis of the situation on Slate this morning. Seems that the Crimean peninsula needs most of its water, electricity and food from the mainland. Simply turning off the power for a few minutes might send a non-violent message (altho power outages can cause real suffering and death, such is miniscule compared to war). In addition, while there are many Russian-speaking residents, and many retired Russians (for climate reasons....see the US Florida), since the end of the USSR some 300,000 Tatars (the original ethnic population, much of which was forcibly removed by Stalin) have returned, and the analysis was to the effect that they, and others, are adamantly opposed to Russian rule.

Maybe the Russians will attempt to hold a corridor wide and long enough to allow them to import food, water and electricity into the Crimea for the long run, but that sounds like an expensive proposition.

In addition, many Crimean residents, including the Tatars, are Muslim, which has implications throughout several areas in Russia, as well as causing potential problems with Turkey and other Muslim states.

Unfortunately, most of Europe needs Russian natural gas, so it seems unlikely that those countries can exert much pressure on Putin, and the USA has virtually no leverage at all.

The Ukraine can't win a shooting war but that doesn't mean there won't be one. Many countries have, historically, refused to back down in the face of horrendous odds but even more horrendous provocation.

[mycroft]

This is a horrible, if very expected thing, and I hope for the best for all there (and pray for, at least, the not worst).

Having said that, sometimes black humour is the only humour you got...

hrothgar, on 2014-March-01, 10:41, said:

* Moreover, he just pissed away his 50 billion dollar coming out party in Sochi.

Well, that explains the "gay hysteria" of the last year - it's an extinction burst...

Seriously though, if the G7 choose to blow off the G8 meeting (rather than just the pre-meeting conversations), it might get interesting. If the G7 choose to have their own meeting Somewhere Else, it might get more interesting.

[ggwhiz]

Russia needs the Crimea and if it wasn't for Sochi, surely they could buy it with the leftover proceeds from the sale of Alaska.

At the right price, the rest of the Ukraine could do well and the U.S. has never had a problem with a non-contiguous border by staying on friendly terms with the guys in-between.

The ham handed tactics they chose instead are sooo unnecessary on so many different levels.

[Aberlour10]

I dont know if such reports are broadcasted in North America

These people have a police power at the streets of Kiev now

And its not Putin's propaganda but the report of BBC News

http://www.bbc.com/n...europe-26394980

[32519]

Ukrainians rush to enlist for army amid crisis in Crimea.

[helene_t]

As usual, the Guardian has featured several thoughtful pieces. I like this one, which is pretty much in line with the OP: http://www.theguardi...ility?CMP=fb_us

[mike777]

helene_t, on 2014-March-05, 04:56, said:

As usual, the Guardian has featured several thoughtful pieces. I like this one, which is pretty much in line with the OP: http://www.theguardi...ility?CMP=fb_us

"Don't listen to Obama's Ukraine critics: he's not 'losing' – and it's not his fight"


I agree that Obama has not repeat not made clear what America's national interest is in this fight. That is the point.

As the headline states if Obama does not show leadership and make clear what Americas national interest is....to QUOTE " it's not his fight"

[Winstonm]

helene_t, on 2014-March-05, 04:56, said:

As usual, the Guardian has featured several thoughtful pieces. I like this one, which is pretty much in line with the OP: http://www.theguardi...ility?CMP=fb_us

Yeah, but it's so much fun to continue to fight the cold war.