[microcap]

6♣ shows King of clubs

---

In this hand from a team match, I pushed to 7 spades and of course went down one and the other room stopped in 4 spades.

1) For the play experts: What is the best line of play?

2) For the mathematicians: What is the percentage of success of the grand slam?

thanks

[Cyberyeti]

What was led ? may affect line of play.

[microcap]

Cyberyeti, on 2014-January-19, 08:27, said:

What was led ? may affect line of play.

Q♦ was the opening lead, thanks forgot that!

[gnasher]

The auction looks a bit odd.

I play ♣AK throwing a heart. Assuming the queen hasn't dropped, I ruff a club high (unless RHO shows out). If the clubs are 3-3, I have enough tricks.

If the clubs aren't good, I cross to dummy, take a heart finesse, ruff a diamond, play a heart to hand, ruff a heart, and come back to hand with a trump.

That needs:
- Club Qx or singleton queen: 20%
- Clubs 3-3 and trumps 3-2: 24%
- Clubs Qxxx=xx and ♥K onside and hearts 4-3 and a bit more: ~ 5%
- Clubs xx-Qxxx and trumps 3-2 and ♥K onside and hearts 4-3 and a bit more: ~3%
So just over 50%.

[Cyberyeti]

gnasher, on 2014-January-19, 09:35, said:

The auction looks a bit odd.

I play ♣AK throwing a heart. Assuming the queen hasn't dropped, I ruff a club high (unless RHO shows out). If the clubs are 3-3, I have enough tricks.

Unless W is a total beginner or WC, if I play ♣AK then the Q appears on the third round when I play the J, I will ruff low as W won't cover with Qx when he assumes his partner has trumps. This would mean I was OK against a 4-1 trump break.

[PhilKing]

I draw trumps. This avoids some complications involving ruffing the third club high and finding trumps breaking badly, but my primary reason is that it will tell me the best way to tackle clubs.

For instance, if West shows up with four trumps I take the ruffing finesse on the third round, and if East has four trumps, the club finesse may be my best bet (it is close, I think, but I will cross that bridge when I come to it). I don't know what my chances of succes are, but they are well above 50%.

[dake50]

2) For the mathematicians: What is the percentage of success of the grand slam?
.
*** Why didn't you induce a heart lead? That way increases your chances.

[Cyberyeti]

gnasher, on 2014-January-19, 09:35, said:

The auction looks a bit odd.

Denial cues ?

[microcap]

As far as the auction, 4♣,4♦, 4♥, were all just cues, then RKCB for spades and
5Nt was specific kings.

I hoped that the clubs would be a source of tricks and that the J of spades would be handy for a 4-1 trump break, so that pushed me to bid the grand. I was kind of hoping he had AKQxxx in ♣ but that wasnt to be...

[Cyberyeti]

microcap, on 2014-January-19, 13:15, said:

As far as the auction, 4♣,4♦, 4♥, were all just cues, then RKCB for spades and
5Nt was specific kings.

I hoped that the clubs would be a source of tricks and that the J of spades would be handy for a 4-1 trump break, so that pushed me to bid the grand. I was kind of hoping he had AKQxxx in ♣ but that wasnt to be...

You left the 4♣ bid out of the auction so 4♦ was on xxx and 4♥ on xx, hence the confusion

[microcap]

Cyberyeti, on 2014-January-19, 13:20, said:

You left the 4♣ bid out of the auction so 4♦ was on xxx and 4♥ on xx, hence the confusion

No wonder I stink at this game! Hopefully I fixed the auction thanks!

[jogs]

microcap, on 2014-January-19, 08:16, said:

6♣ shows King of clubs

---

In this hand from a team match, I pushed to 7 spades and of course went down one and the other room stopped in 4 spades.

This is why you don't ever bid 7 unless you can count the tricks during the auction. Even in world championship matches there are instances of one team in 7 while the other is in game.

Quote

1) For the play experts: What is the best line of play?

2) For the mathematicians: What is the percentage of success of the grand slam?

thanks

You must include the opening lead. A diamond lead restricts your options for playing this board.

[ArtK78]

jogs, on 2014-January-20, 08:52, said:

This is why you don't ever bid 7 unless you can count the tricks during the auction. Even in world championship matches there are instances of one team in 7 while the other is in game.

I once played in a partial when the other side was in a grand. Even though the grand was VERY good, 12 tricks were the limit (trump broke 4-0 with the Jxxx behind the AKQx).

My partner and I had a disagreement about the meaning of a continuation over a reverse. I thought it was game forcing and he thought it was a signoff. As it was his bid next, the auction ended.

[Fluffy]

well earned 6 , I made a light reopening of 1♥-pass-pass against a french pair who played 2 strong bids (2♣ and 2[di), succesful as LHO rebid 6♥ and went 1 off

[Onedown]

I have no comment on 1) or 2) but on the auctiom. One comment said the auction was strange. I find the raise to 3 spades very strange. UNLESS u play some system that guarantees 1S is 5+ spades, you have just enough to bid 3 clubs..thats it and thats all...

[microcap]

gnasher, on 2014-January-19, 09:35, said:

The auction looks a bit odd.

I play ♣AK throwing a heart. Assuming the queen hasn't dropped, I ruff a club high (unless RHO shows out). If the clubs are 3-3, I have enough tricks.

If the clubs aren't good, I cross to dummy, take a heart finesse, ruff a diamond, play a heart to hand, ruff a heart, and come back to hand with a trump.

That needs:
- Club Qx or singleton queen: 20%
- Clubs 3-3 and trumps 3-2: 24%
- Clubs Qxxx=xx and ♥K onside and hearts 4-3 and a bit more: ~ 5%
- Clubs xx-Qxxx and trumps 3-2 and ♥K onside and hearts 4-3 and a bit more: ~3%
So just over 50%.

I played exactly this way, so you made me feel better...however, it turns out the RHO had both 4 trump to the 10 AND 4 clubs to the queen. I got overruffed when I tried to ruff a diamond back to the board after the heart finesse won.

The East hand was:

---

---

or something close, I am working from memory...


In terms of the auction, the 3♠ bid does not promise 3 cards, that's a good point.

Out of curiosity, is North's hand good enough for the 3♣ jump? That's what set me in the wrong direction for sure...

[HighLow21]

gnasher, on 2014-January-19, 09:35, said:

<gnasher's original idea>
So just over 50%.

You can play the clubs for Q(x) with West OR Q to any length with East simply by drawing trumps. Then AK♣ and ruffing finesse against East if needed. This requires spades 3-2 OR 4-1, and the contract almost definitely can't survive 5-0 spades anyway. (They would have to be with East plus a lot of luck besides.)

Odds:
Spades not 5-0 (96%) times the sum of:
Q♣ with East = 50%
Q♣ with West, single: 1.2%
Q♣ with West, double: 8%
Total: 56.97%, so call it 57%. There may be an additional half percent to this line if East has all 5 spades (2%), but it would require the heart finesse, 3 club tricks, a diamond or heart ruff, a double finesse in spades, and a trump coup at the finish.

Note that without the diamond lead the contract is much better, because there is a much better line of play overall if spades are 3-2, given that there are 2 outside dummy entries.

[HighLow21]

microcap, on 2014-January-23, 10:24, said:

Out of curiosity, is North's hand good enough for the 3♣ jump? That's what set me in the wrong direction for sure...

Ask yourself what you rebid would be with the following and decide for yourself :-)
♠873
♥J6
♦AJ
♣AQ9875

Is the actual hand a trick or more better than this minimum club rebid? Absolutely. It's more like 2 tricks better. (This assumes you would not support spades at your first rebid with this minimum hand, and many would.)

[rhm]

microcap, on 2014-January-19, 08:16, said:

6♣ shows King of clubs

---

In this hand from a team match, I pushed to 7 spades and of course went down one and the other room stopped in 4 spades.

1) For the play experts: What is the best line of play?

2) For the mathematicians: What is the percentage of success of the grand slam?

thanks

The mathematicians can not answer your question unless they are also play experts.
By the way how can 6♣ by South show the king of clubs? He does not have it.

Rainer Herrmann