Posted 2005-February-07, 08:20
Pass.
From the bidding I estimate LHO has 2 Spades. If he had more he would have raised pard, (he didnt bid a new suit). So pard has 5 or 4 spades.
RHO doesn't care for Clubs (he may have 0-3, and he may be ruffing them, so I'll lead a trump).
Thus RHO has long hearts and diamonds.
I have no guarantee of pard having length in Diamonds, and I'd have to bid them at the 3 level. Hearts may be a 4-3 fit at the 3 level. Its possible we have a fit in clubs, (and also possible we have a 4-2 or 4-3 fit) , but I see no sense in risking it vulnerable at the 3 level. So no suit bid makes sense. Also, the opps dont have a game, so bidding to prevent them making 110, at the risk of -300 or -500 doesnt seem worth it.
Do we double? Opps have at least 18 HCP, and much more likely 20-22.
can we set them? Perhaps. We may set them a trick. doubled gives us an extra 50 points.
If we fail, they make a game bonus. So we better set them 90% of the time, or set them 2 tricks the majority of the time. Can we do that?
I dont think so.
Pass.