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gnasher, on 2013-December-20, 03:37, said:
3♣. Did somebody really mention pass?
I think pass is much much better than this thread is giving it credit.
Let's start with 3♣. I ran a simple simulation, only constraint is East has at least 16hcp. The average par score was -576, the average score in 3♣X was -520. That's awfully close: while my opponents don't defend perfectly against 3♣X, they are much worse at bidding to par (doubly dummy par!), even when undisturbed. If the opponents are just mildly good at guess when to pass 3♣X, of when to pass 3♣ undoubled, they will gain. A lot of IMPS. For example, under the highly sophisticated constraint "Neither East nor West has shortness", our average score in 3♣X becomes -553, while the average par score becomes -393. And obviously, our average still contains many 3CX making (not that rare), in which case opponents will often just pass out 3♣, or get to double 4♣X or ♣X.
You would have to gain a lot from pushing them to wrong contracts, or causing partner to make the right lead, in order to make up for this. I don't see it.
While they be able to double 3♣? The will often be endplayed into it: LHO makes a double showing some range of values with not much shape, RHO is balanced and can't do anything but pass. Do these numbers look realistic? Obviously, we will often be -800, and we don't need much from partner to stop them from making slam. Give LHO a hand where they make slam, swap it into partner's seat, and I don't see them making game, nor getting there.
(To add some context to the stats: they make some game 77% of the time. They make 4S 62% of the time. I can add more statistics counter if anyone thinks they would help. The above numbers are based on 500 hands.)
Now what about bidding 2♣? That doesn't cause them much trouble. In fact, on some hands it will make their auction more accurate: RHO will get to make a takeout double with 4432, and they play 2M in a 4-4 fit rather than 1N. They will find their spade fit when they have one most of the time. It will sometimes cause them to misguess hearts, but more often will help them to guess the spade suit, or to strip squeeze me into leading away from the heart queen. We aren't worried about stealing them a level to obstruct their slam bidding, since they are unlikely to have (a biddable) one. We are unlikely to buy the contract (neither constructively nor as a save).
On the other hand, bidding 2♣ doesn't cause much harm either. Plus, it may get partner off to the right lead.
Isn't all that more or less a wash?