JLOGIC, on 2013-November-24, 05:17, said:
In this case, even if calling "small" instead of "six" is an infraction, why would we think it might have influenced the play?
Calling for the six of diamonds had a reasonable chance of success, we will call it x%. Against this particular East, that would have been quite high, as East has to realise that it is a winner, when he should work out to ruff with the king, not a small one. Let us guess that it would have worked 75% of the time anyway. I checked out 30 hands recently with declarers of different strengths. When they are running a suit from dummy, and they are only winners, or the only cards of that suit left, they usually say "diamond", for example, and sometimes specify the card, and sometime say "top diamond". In 30 instances I watched, when the cards were equal, "low diamond" was not selected once.
It is clear that by selecting the phrase "low diamond" in this instance, taking into account the whole hand, not just the phrase on its own, declarer could have known that the deliberate breach of Law 46A could have been to his benefit. It could easily reinforce the belief in East's mind that declarer intended to ruff this. It increased the chance of making the contract from x% to x+y%. It is this y%, with some adjustment in favour of the non-offenders, that you award to EW for the infraction. The problem occurs in non-weighted-score land, where I presume that you have to give one score or another.
You would give up bridge if a TD ruled in favour of EW here. I would give up bridge if coffee-housing of this type became prevalent and was not punished. Out of interest, how would you rule if declarer has said "play the losing diamond" and dummy had led the six?
For what it is worth, if declarer had said "diamond", I would not adjust, as I would estimate that y is indeed 0%.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar