mikeh, on 2013-November-22, 10:18, said:
I think that the passers are being too lazy: they are not trying to construct hands consistent with the auction.
In particular, the auction strongly suggests serious diamond shortness in partner's hand, along with only (at most) 3 spades.
LHO might be 4=4=3=2, but all other shapes that he might hold will give us a diamond void in partner's hand.
Now, start thinking about what kind of hand partner should have to double and then bid.
I'd suggest that a very likely shape is 3=4=0=6, yet he didn't start with 2♣, intending to double next time (if appropriate) so he won't be weak...he'll have a good hand.
Start playing around with good hands that are 3=4=0=6 and you'll soon see that game is a heavy favourite on most of them, yet partner won't be able to bid over 3♠ by LHO and will almost never be able to raise our presumed balancing 4♣ to game (assuming the opps don't bid 4♠ ahead of us.
I think it is mandatory to bid here, and I am torn between 5♣, the contract I want to be in opposite my posited 3=4=0=6, and 4♣, which is probably where we want to be should partner be, for example, 3=3=1=6. On that last note: what is our style with that shape? Most opening hands, including some with extras, would (in my partnerships and I think this is standard) overcall then double, rather than double then bid.
If I were playing opposite a clone of me, I'd bid game. If I were playing opposite an expert who was more aggressive than I am, in the N seat, I would bid 4♣,but be really worried I was underbidding again.
Pass, to me, suggests that we didn't look at any part of our hand or, if we did, that we didn't pay any attention to the auction.
Btw, if I am right about this, I will be very grateful to RHO for telling me about partner's diamond shortness, tho I wouldn't say anything (a good opp will know what damage his call did when dummy comes down).
I see we are on a different planet than some other posters. I like your analysis but if partner has 3406 we are almost certainly cold for a game opposite any reasonable hand that would X first (if he has no spade honors he has the round suit honors, if he has a spade honor that is fine). I guess 2416 is the only issue with AKQ AKQ and we are off 3 tricks. May I ask why you rejected 3S if you are not bidding 5C? Maybe that sounds too much like a 3N try but partner will be more likely to bid game over that than 4C imo.
ETA: Also, LHO basically cannot have 4432 imo, there are not enough points. I mean LHO has 15, partner has 16, we have 4, that leaves RHO 5 points for his game try, and that is giving everyone else their bare minimum. Seems like LHO will def have 4 diamonds but RHO might have only 3. Even so are we expecting partner to bid game over 4C with Kx AQxx x AKxxxx or something? I would never do so, in fact I would never X first with that hand (I assume you wouldn't either).