[gnasher]

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LHO leads ♠A. RHO plays ♠6 (high encouraging). LHO continues with ♠Q, and RHO plays the 5.

Now what?

[gszes]

we know RHO has something over there for that 3s bid since they
had zero honors in spades and no great spade length. The only
problem is where is it? is our LOP doomed to be nothing but pure
guesswork and what was that come on signal from RHO all about
with absolutely nothing in spades??? Is it possible they feared a
switch and if so what could they fear??

IMHO the only reasonable reason rho would issue a come on
in spades is if they held AJx of hearts (and lho probably the
club K and dia A). What happens if we lead the dia J at trick
2. What is lho to do. If they win and return a dia we win (pitch club
and lead the heart 9 intending to finesse if rho plays low and if rho
rises and returns a club we rise with the A play the 2 top hearts
and go to dummy with the 4th heart and play diamonds (hoping
they split 43) and pitch all of our clubs.


If lho ducks the dia we rise with the K (now with no dia loser) and
once again lead the heart 9 intending to finesse. The main
advantage of this sequence is we no longer care if LHO had the club
K so if RHO rises with the heart A the hand is over as we ris with the
A draw last 2 trumps and then play a club to the J. If this is ducked we
can revert to top dia while we still have a turmp in dummy as an entry.

If lho wins the dia A and returns a club we rise with the J and return
the heart 9 intending to finesse. If rho rises with the A we have to hope
clubs break 33.

If lho wins and returns a spade pitch club from dummy and ruff in your
hand followed by the club A and ruff a club and now play 3 top diamonds
(we need lho to hold 4 dia and rho to hold 3 dia) pitching and then lead
the heart 9 intending to finesse (btw get out of this game since these
opps are entirely too good giving up a ruff and sluff as the best chance
to set you).

If we do not like any of the above we can always just plunk down the heart K or Q
at trick 2 and hope trumps are 22 and lho hand the heart A:))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

pick your poison and good luck

[gnasher]

gszes, on 2013-October-13, 18:21, said:

IMHO the only reasonable reason rho would issue a come on in spades is if they held AJx of hearts

I expect RHO encouraged because he didn't want a club switch.

[sathyab]

If RHO can win the first trick in a suit that we attack, he can always play back a ♣ and get a ruff, assuming there's a ruff available and that he can over-ruff dummy. So we have to play a ♦ and hope LHO wins it as RHO is likely to have length and strength in trumps. Playing a ♣ toward dummy is of course dangerous as LHO will win it and return the suit right away.

[mikeh]

sathyab, on 2013-October-15, 15:12, said:

If RHO can win the first trick in a suit that we attack, he can always play back a ♣ and get a ruff, assuming there's a ruff available and that he can over-ruff dummy. So we have to play a ♦ and hope LHO wins it as RHO is likely to have length and strength in trumps. Playing a ♣ toward dummy is of course dangerous as LHO will win it and return the suit right away.

Playing a club towards dummy is dangerous not because LHO will return it, but because that's the setting trick

We have to judge how to play the red suits.

We can, I think, fairly assume that the red Aces are split and that the club K is offside.

If LHO holds the trump A, we need to play trumps now. We also need the heart J to come down so that if RHO wins the first diamond and switches to a club, we can get to dummy in hearts.

This means that we want hearts 2-2 or RHO to hold the stiff J.

Otoh, if we assume LHO has the diamond A, we lead a diamond now. Assume LHO wins...he will probably lead a diamond back. We are on dummy and must guess trump. We infer the A is on our right.

I would run the 9, since I think a 3-1 split is more probable than the a priori odds.

I say this because LHO made a dangerous and, as it happens, losing lead. With xx in trump and all side suits controlled, I think a trump lead stands out.

Even with Jx, we'd need a specific layout for the trump to be wrong: basically Qxxx in dummy and Axxxx in hand, with one of the hands holding the 10.

Otoh, leading a stiff trump is often very dangerous and is an unpopular lead choice. So that's what I'd play him for.

Add to this that if RHO has only 5 spades, I think holding Axx or AJx makes bidding more attractive since one is now almost assured of a stiff in dummy. If LHO holds a stiff non-Ace trump, then it is two to one it is an x.

So I lead the diamond J.

If LHO ducks, then I overtake in order to lead a heart to my K...having elected to lead a diamond, I am down if RHO holds the A, so this overtaking doesn't cost, and now I can cater to stiff J offside (and all 2-2 fits) because I can get to dummy by leading to the J of clubs twice.

[sathyab]

mikeh, on 2013-October-15, 15:51, said:

Playing a club towards dummy is dangerous not because LHO will return it, but because that's the setting trick

We have to judge how to play the red suits.

We can, I think, fairly assume that the red Aces are split and that the club K is offside.

If LHO holds the trump A, we need to play trumps now. We also need the heart J to come down so that if RHO wins the first diamond and switches to a club, we can get to dummy in hearts.

This means that we want hearts 2-2 or RHO to hold the stiff J.

Otoh, if we assume LHO has the diamond A, we lead a diamond now. Assume LHO wins...he will probably lead a diamond back. We are on dummy and must guess trump. We infer the A is on our right.

I would run the 9, since I think a 3-1 split is more probable than the a priori odds.

I say this because LHO made a dangerous and, as it happens, losing lead. With xx in trump and all side suits controlled, I think a trump lead stands out.

Even with Jx, we'd need a specific layout for the trump to be wrong: basically Qxxx in dummy and Axxxx in hand, with one of the hands holding the 10.

Otoh, leading a stiff trump is often very dangerous and is an unpopular lead choice. So that's what I'd play him for.

Add to this that if RHO has only 5 spades, I think holding Axx or AJx makes bidding more attractive since one is now almost assured of a stiff in dummy. If LHO holds a stiff non-Ace trump, then it is two to one it is an x.

So I lead the diamond J.

If LHO ducks, then I overtake in order to lead a heart to my K...having elected to lead a diamond, I am down if RHO holds the A, so this overtaking doesn't cost, and now I can cater to stiff J offside (and all 2-2 fits) because I can get to dummy by leading to the J of clubs twice.

Oops ! For some reason I kept thinking the problem was to avoid a ♣ ruff, but the problem is more fundamental, as we can not afford a ♣ loser at all.

[gnasher]

Perhaps I'm being influenced by my knowledge of the actual hand, but I think you should play a heart.

RHO encouraged spades, so he doesn't have ♣K. That's reinforced by his play of a highish spade on the second round. Hence RHO has one of the aces to justify his 3♠ and LHO's pass of 4♥.

They didn't bid 4♠, so hearts are probably 2-2. Hence it's just a matter of guessing who has which ace. There are two reasons to play LHO for ♥A:
- RHO has bid 3♠ on a 9-high suit without much in high cards. His hand would look better with ♦A than with ♥A.
- LHO has made an aggressive lead. That suggests concern that we can take fast pitches on the diamonds. If he had ♦A he would have known that there was no hurry to cash spades, so he might have led a trump instead, or he might have led ♦A in the hope of giving a ruff.

Both of these inferences are fairly tenuous, but with nothing else to go on we may as well use them.

Naturally I didn't think of this until half way through the next board, having played a diamond and gone down.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2013-October-18, 07:35

[jallerton]

The inference from RHO's spade signal seems valid and that's probably enough reason to start with a top heart from hand.

However, I don't agree with your inferences about the opening lead. Without an attractive lead elsewhere, it's not unreasonable to lead from AQx in the suit where partner is most likely to hold his high card. LHO can still attempt to give his partner a diamond ruff after leading ♠A. Leading ♦A at trick one is only necessary if he is planning to give his partner two ruffs, retaining ♠A as the re-entry. It's unlikely that a hand which has made a T/O double and has heard partner compete would be that desparate.