BBO Discussion Forums: Best line for 6D - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

Best line for 6D How to compute the odds at the table?

#1 User is offline   sieong 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 148
  • Joined: 2005-November-28

Posted 2013-October-14, 23:15

I saw the following play problem from a JEC match this weekend. You are declarer in 6.



The lead was T.

If are 2-2 or Q is singleton and clubs breaks no worse than 4-1, the contract is cold. Assuming break 3-1, is it better to

1. Hook a heart (A, A, K, K, heart to the Q); or
2. Play for K coming down in three rounds, or person with long diamonds have 3-4 clubs (A, A, A, ruff a heart, K, ruff a heart, then if K is still outstanding, play on ?)

In general, is there good way to determine the odds at the table (K coming down in 3 rounds is about 22%, but how to determine the conditional distribution of the person with long diamonds having long clubs? And how to factor in that hearts are breaking no worse than 5-3?)?

Thanks.
0

#2 User is offline   winkle 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 106
  • Joined: 2004-January-12

Posted 2013-October-15, 01:47

I'll reply to how to estimate the odds of long diamonds with long clubs.

A way to get a pretty good estimate is to look at empty spaces, and further simplify the problem by looking at 3-2 club breaks. So:

If long (3) diamonds are with long (3) clubs, one hand would have 7 major suit cards and the other hand 10. If long diamonds (3) are with short clubs (2), one hand would have 8 major suit cards and the other hand 9. The ratio of these two hand types are: 9!8! : 10!7! = 8:10. This gives you 44.4%.

If you do the same thing for 4-1 breaks, you get 7*8:10*11. This gives you 33.7%.

So the figure is somewhere in between, but closer to 44.4%. Call it 41%?

I used to spend a lot of time trying to figure out exact percentage of various lines but nowadays I don't do it because it doesn't help me at the table. At the table I'd just note that it's slightly (but not much) less than 50%... I would've expected around 45% but it appears 40% is a better guess.
My name is Winkle.
1

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users