The lead was ♠T.
If ♦ are 2-2 or ♦Q is singleton and clubs breaks no worse than 4-1, the contract is cold. Assuming ♦ break 3-1, is it better to
1. Hook a heart (♠A, ♦A, ♦K, ♣K, heart to the Q); or
2. Play for ♥K coming down in three rounds, or person with long diamonds have 3-4 clubs (♠A, ♦A, ♥A, ruff a heart, ♦K, ruff a heart, then if ♥K is still outstanding, play on ♣?)
In general, is there good way to determine the odds at the table (♥K coming down in 3 rounds is about 22%, but how to determine the conditional distribution of the person with long diamonds having long clubs? And how to factor in that hearts are breaking no worse than 5-3?)?
Thanks.