[RSClyde]

I actually played 7nt once and the guy on lead had an ace and didn't double... not sure why.
I assume that we all agree that pass is clear at IMP's.
I would double. I understand that results like 7♣X making are possible, but it seems to require a lot:
1) They have somewhere to go.
2) Partner fails to find a spade lead.
3) The spades go away.
Yes those things can happen, the question is how likely is it vs picking up a 1/2 point by doubling?

If you double and they run to 7mX making then you'll never forget it! I heard several such stories. This however is more a point in favor of doubling: allow me to explain.
We don't have clear probabilities available here: we're all just trying to intuit this. I fully admit that I may have this wrong and the successful running hands are more common than I think. However I think the tendency is to avoid the dramatically bad result, rather than the mundanely bad result. Just like how almost no jeopardy contestant will risk enough on a daily double because going broke on the spot is dramatic, but pulling up short at the end somehow doesn't seem as bad.

[mycroft]

I remember being at trick 8 defending 7♠, with dummy and partner volubly wondering why there hasn't been a claim yet. "I still have the trump ace to lose." At which point the comments were about why there was no double. I did think - poorly, as further analysis of the auction would have told me - that doubling could lead to a "if partner doesn't lead 'trumps', -2220" situation. What I said was "if not doubling costs an IMP, I'll buy the team dinner" (and we were all 'starving' students, so this was a big bet). It didn't - and it wouldn't at BAM, either.

This is a different case, I think. What do I do with 13-Work and a long broken minor when partner opens 2NT at BAM? Same thing everybody does. So it's fairly likely that we have a matching auction. Now, if they can pull to the minor, and either there's a void, or they can engineer partner on lead and she guesses wrong, -2330 (which, I will admit, won't be any bigger zero than -2140). If they can't, we're going plus, and it's likely we have to double to push. Of course, if the other team's West is sitting there trying to figure out if I'm [smart|dumb] enough to double, or if their teammates are going to have this auction, well, then.

I might use the saying I quoted yesterday, and try not to lose the postmortem. I *think* it's going to go "yeah, that was unlucky, I can see where you might think it was the same auction in our room, and what's the chance anyway?" if I double and lose the board, and "isn't this an auto-double?" if I pass and lose the board (what happens if I pass and push the board is interesting as well). But there's a reason I'm not an Expert (or an Eeeeexpert, either, as my old teacher used to put it) - I could be wrong.

[quiddity]

Very surprised by the poll results and comments on this thread. To me double is beyond automatic at BAM. When I first read the OP I assumed gnasher had just missed the form of scoring or the fact that the AK hand was on lead. Anyway, 2N-6N is a straightforward auction that could easily occur at the other table. Catering for the parlay of their having a place to run, deciding to run, being able to let responder declare, being able to take 13 tricks if partner doesn't lead a spade, PLUS getting a non-spade lead from partner, strikes me as pretty silly.

It is hardly a no-brainer for them to run even if they have a landing place and the methods. From their point of view 6NT-X could easily be the contract at the other table. Unless someone has a stiff spade they are risking the board by running.

[ggwhiz]

 gnasher, on 2013-September-19, 03:25, said:

The next day I saw the same hand in the bulletin:

Defending 1nt declarer had a hidden diamond fit and when pard switched to the stiff King, I overtook and fired one back from double Ace. I swore I would never again make a bulletin for being insane.

We drove home the next day and pard, reading the bulletin said "Wow, somebody defended that hand the same way we did." Ummmm nope and I almost hit the ditch.

[Fluffy]

Serious error would be not to lead from AK, like my partner did once with ♣AK10, he didn't even like to lead our suit spades (we had defended 6♠ over 6♥), but picked instead to underlead ♦Jxxx, sadly it was not a success.

[RSClyde]

How about an agreement on what doubling the runout means?
It seems silly to let them play the runout undoubled but not really: 7m -1 is the same as 6nt -1. You're already winning when the initial double ends the auction, and you scramble back to equity when they have a place to run.
So I say, after they run, X = lead a spade
pass = lead something else
(or some such thing) By reversing you could double more often so maybe that's right.

[Vampyr]

 mgoetze, on 2013-September-19, 10:33, said:

The fact that you consider me a "super-expert" only calls into question your qualification to judge that the players in the original hand were experts, since I myself am not an expert at all.

Perhaps not, but you are the arbiter of who is and who isn't. Well, someone has to guard the gates to the inner sanctum, right?

[mgoetze]

 Vampyr, on 2013-September-19, 17:59, said:

Perhaps not, but you are the arbiter of who is and who isn't. Well, someone has to guard the gates to the inner sanctum, right?

I'm glad you see it that way.

[johnu]

BAM, I think the odds strongly favor a double. If the contract is 6NT at the other table, you win a full point instead of a half if there wasn't a double, and get a half if there was a double. If you don't double and they double at the other table and play 6NT-X, you are going to get a zero if you don't double. If they stopped in game, it doesn't make any difference. If they run to 7 of something with your partner on lead, you would have a disaster if partner leads the wrong suit and they make. If they bid 7 and you beat it, you are in very good position.

On the bidding, against good opponents, I think there's a good possibility that pretty much the same auction will happen at the other table (assuming your partners are of the same standard). Partner could lead your AK suit, and/or most likely there aren't 13 tricks off the top.

If this was IMPs, I think the odds still favor a double. Sure, there's a somewhat remote chance you will lose 20, but if they sit you avoid losing 3 IMPs if they play doubled at the other table, gain 3 IMPs if they play undoubled at the other table (And a small possibility that a 3rd (or more) spade trick to be cashed). If they run to 7 doubled and the AK cash, you're looking at a potential 9 IMP gain (500 - 100).

It's not a sure thing, but I'm in the doubler's camp.

[jdeegan]

Passing at IMPs - not really so bad due to the poor risk/reward ratio. Passing at BAM - just insane for the same reasons. So many hypothetical bad things have to happen for a double to go wrong. Also, what was the meaning of the 2NT bid? How does that compare with what my teammate is playing at the other table? Any table feel? This problem strikes me as more of an advanced/intermediate lesson.

[Siegmund]

Well, if the West at the other table is a member of this forum, I have to double, because so darn many of you are taking the -50!

It does seem wildly dependent on the quality and style of the 6NT bidder, but the combined chances of them not running, and of my being able to direct the right lead if they do run, would convince me that I have to try it.

Only if I knew my teammates were certainly not in 6NT (maybe they don't play a strong 2NT, or have a relay system to find all their 7m contracts, or they just hate being in 6NT) would I seriously consider passing. I don't think I've ever had such teammates in real life.

[gwnn]

 RSClyde, on 2013-September-19, 16:13, said:

How about an agreement on what doubling the runout means?
It seems silly to let them play the runout undoubled but not really: 7m -1 is the same as 6nt -1. You're already winning when the initial double ends the auction, and you scramble back to equity when they have a place to run.
So I say, after they run, X = lead a spade
pass = lead something else
(or some such thing) By reversing you could double more often so maybe that's right.

This has been mentioned already by at least three other people in this thread.

[lamford]

 Fluffy, on 2013-September-19, 14:50, said:

Serious error would be not to lead from AK

No, 'serious error' would be to lead fourth best of his longest and strongest.

[PhilG007]

 wyman, on 2013-September-18, 15:36, said:

Yes, which is why you're in the wrong forum.

How can I be in the wrong forum???????
The title of the thread was "Serious error?"
It didn't say what was the basis of the "serious error" Was the "serious error"
bidding a NT slam with two top tricks missing or to double? If so,
then yes to the first and no to the second.

[Vampyr]

 PhilG007, on 2013-September-20, 12:21, said:

How can I be in the wrong forum???????

Well...the idea was that your posts are inappropriate in the "Expert" forum.

[wyman]

 PhilG007, on 2013-September-20, 12:21, said:

How can I be in the wrong forum???????

Well, given this description:

Quote

Expert-Class Bridge
Forum designated for expert bridge players to discuss more advanced topics.

your responses make it clear that you fail to qualify. This question was very clearly not about noticing that you can cash the ♠AK.

You are obviously not a rank beginner, but you could probably learn a heck of a lot in I/A. And while your responses aren't really welcome (for now) in the expert forum, you should still read it and see what you can learn. And if you have questions about the posts here, PM people (unless they ask you to stop), or repost some content with your questions in I/A, where people will often be happy to discuss similar topics in a more detailed and patient way. But, as many people have told you in other topics, few people will be willing to patiently explain things to you if you are belligerent and bull-headed and continue telling people that they are wrong. Be humble; a lot of people in these forums are a lot better than you are. It will take some time for you to figure out who they are, but it will happen.

Also, one question mark is probably sufficient for your future questions.

[aguahombre]

But extra ♥ are allowed

[ArtK78]

 aguahombre, on 2013-September-20, 13:44, said:

But extra ♥ are allowed

Just don't overdo them.

[benlessard]

I think doubling is a good deal on one very important condition. That the 2nd double is going to be lightner and partner is on the same wavelenght. To double without thinking on what you ll do or what will partner lead after 7m is pretty bad.

EX double 6NT and doubling 7clubs suggest S while doubling and pass suggest Hearts. This is a normal inference of standard lightner IMO. If you play that way you can double and be sure to never have them making 7m.

Even if its much more likely that responder having a solid suit and didnt transfers (to stop lead directing) and decide to just blast to 6Nt rather than he had a quantitative raise but a quantitative raise is still possible and they ll have nowhere to run.

Also its posible that the X give half the board.

[jdeegan]

 benlessard, on 2013-September-20, 14:12, said:

I think doubling is a good deal on one very important condition. That the 2nd double is going to be lightner and partner is on the same wavelenght. To double without thinking on what you ll do or what will partner lead after 7m is pretty bad.

EX double 6NT and doubling 7clubs suggest S while doubling and pass suggest Hearts. This is a normal inference of standard lightner IMO. If you play that way you can double and be sure to never have them making 7m.

Even if its much more likely that responder having a solid suit and didnt transfers (to stop lead directing) and decide to just blast to 6Nt rather than he had a quantitative raise but a quantitative raise is still possible and they ll have nowhere to run.

Also its posible that the X give half the board.

Several points:
1. Having to remember a specific agreement to handle a situation that virtually never arises is not something real experts do. A more generalized agreement would make sense, imo.
2. The odds that LHO will get the yips and pull to 7m is non-existent for many players and unlikely for the rest since such hands are exceedingly rare. You should know your opponent a little have some table feel if he/she is getting jumpy or had a problem on the previous round of bidding.
3. Even against 7m, partner may lead a spade.
4. 7m may be unmakable against any defense.
5. The form of scoring is BAM. You get either 0, 1/2 or 1. Work out the possibilities.