[Fluffy]

VM1973, on 2013-September-14, 09:06, said:

Nevertheless, do you disagree with the main point, namely that knowing that opposite a 12-count he has a 50-50 shot of making 6NT and opposite a 13+ count his odds improve, that the bidder should have bid 6NT had he been able to work this out at the table? If not, then why are you so eager to argue about inconsequentials?

50% for a 19 count 4333 versus a balanced 12? were you asleep when they teached you the basic NT ranges?

[johnu]

Fluffy, on 2013-September-15, 03:57, said:

50% for a 19 count 4333 versus a balanced 12? were you asleep when they teached you the basic NT ranges?

I'll take the blame,or the credit for that double dummy result . Not just any 19 point hand, but a prime hand top heavy in aces and kings, where even the jack is in the 4 card suit along with the ace and king so will carry full weight. Consider a suit with duplicated values, something like AQJ opposite Kx. 10 points but only 3 tricks. You could have some duplication with the given 19 pointer, but the chances of that are a lot less than an average 19 pointer on the bidding. With this many controls, you're also not likely to be off 2 aces which has been known to be fatal in 6NT.