[scarletv]

---

Lead ♠Q

[Fluffy]

the lead on dummy's suit should mean a very strong holding, QJ10xx or QJ108 at least.

That means that the 12th trick must come from clubs.
The percentage play for 2 tricks in clubs is the double finesse.

There are 3 possible double finesses:

• run the queen and later the 10 (Standard, only loses when clubs are KJ-xx)
• low club from hand to the 10, and then run the queen (only loses when clubs are Kx-Jx)
• low club from hand to the queen and then run the 10 (only loses when clubs are Jx-Kx) This third line is a little worse than the former in practice.

Given that West is pressumed to have 4 or 5 spades I lean towards playing both finesses through East who has more clubs on average than west. But against a weak West, playing low club to the 10 is stronger, because it doesn't only win on the normal 3 out of 4 cases, it also wins on the losing case (west with ♣K) when he finds it hard to avoid raising with the King. So it depends on who the opponent's are.

Another important thing to see is that diamonds are blocked, and opponents have an easy ride discarding low diamonds and clubs, so running hearts early won't do you any good, it will force you to make a difficult pitch from dummy, and will only threaten your communications.

[Endymion77]

Running the CQ and then the C10 looks obvious to me

[PhilKing]

Endymion77, on 2013-September-02, 03:23, said:

Running the CQ and then the C10 looks obvious to me

Fluffy's option 2 is better in isolation. It is the same odds as the double finesse (less stiff jack with East), but has the advantage that a non-expert West will err and rise with Kx.

I don't completely agree about his spade inference, since West will lead a spade with any QJT (combo (except maybe QJT5) if holding the club king, so I am somewhat tempted by his line 3.

Put me down for five rounds of hearts while I think about it. The discards may be easy, but I will still learn something. Clubs can wait.

[Antrax]

Quote

Given that West is pressumed to have 4 or 5 spades I lean towards playing both finesses through East who has more clubs on average than west

Doesn't the monty hall trap thing apply to this reasoning?

[Zelandakh]

This kind of problem is a little above my pay grade but does playing to the ten (line 2) not also work whenever West has led from 5 spades? Now East cannot lead a spade back when in with the ♣J and West gets squeezed in the black suits from simply cashing red suit winners, no? Or is this too difficult to read in practise against good opps?

[Fluffy]

I think good opps won´t give you a clue, they can see dummy´s ♠Kx(x) menace and all they need is to bare ♣K, there is no alternative to that play.

You might however be able to count the hand, and play for the drop (Squeeze) if LHO is 5224