[Fluffy]

jogs, on 2013-July-25, 20:54, said:

Notice that 9 trumps produced only 8 tricks.
8 tricks was what I found from my small sample.
Lawrence/Wirgren was right. Flat patterns
produce fewer tricks.

You didn't put flat patterns, you put mirror shape which is a different issue, put a doubleton in a minor and you will have flat shape.

[PhilKing]

What you are dealing with here is a somewhat more mathematically savvy version of 32519.

[jogs]

PhilKing, on 2013-July-26, 17:42, said:

What you are dealing with here is a somewhat more mathematically savvy version of 32519.

Don't know which 32519 thread you're referring to.

[jogs]

Fluffy, on 2013-July-26, 14:18, said:

You didn't put flat patterns, you put mirror shape which is a different issue, put a doubleton in a minor and you will have flat shape.

Assuming a contested auction in the majors.
Yes, if you are 5332 with a doubleton in a minor pard
is likely to have a doubleton or singleton in the
other major.

Actually I am claiming that 5332 is a flat pattern
which is detrimental to tricks. If it is right to
bid 3 over 3, it will be because pard has a skewed
pattern. Meaning the flat pattern should pass and
allow the pard to make the final contested decision.

In the case where there are two doubletons in different
suits with normalized points the expected tricks was 8.66
in my small sample. Really needed a singleton somewhere
before it was clear to go 3 over 3.

LoTT should be
E(tricks) = trumps + e
where e is N(u,σ²)
for trumps =< 18 u = 0
for trumps > 18 u < 0
meaning expected tricks is less than total trumps
whenever total trumps is 19 or greater.

*Had to change the last two lines.

This post has been edited by jogs: 2013-July-28, 13:11

[akwoo]

But I think if your side has a flat pattern, then the opponents are likely to have more tricks. This is especially true if trumps are splitting 2-2 for them.

After all, if the opponents are making 3H, then you should bid 3S over 3H if you are only down 1, especially at matchpoints.

[Zelandakh]

PhilKing, on 2013-July-26, 17:42, said:

What you are dealing with here is a somewhat more mathematically savvy version of 32519.

Which luckily makes it easier to show that it is rubbish being posted. It would have been more difficult if he had started a thread about starting a joint project for creating a new evaluation method based purely on statistics with various factors.

[bd71]

Without making any comment on the validity of the LOTT, this type of analysis - even done accurately - is not sufficient to assess the usefulness of "the Law."

LOTT does NOT argue that total trumps is correlated with throw tricks available to ONE pair, but rather to the tricks available to both pairs. If I read the analysis right, you are assuming that 2S-1 is a "bad" result, but -50/100 sure beats -110/140. You have to take a different approach to answer your question.

[jogs]

Fluffy, on 2013-July-26, 14:18, said:

You didn't put flat patterns, you put mirror shape which is a different issue, put a doubleton in a minor and you will have flat shape.

Okay you got me. I went out of my way to show 5332 in the worst
possible light. Also double dummy analysis has a bias favoring the
defense of 0.35 to 0.5 for normalized HCP. No one in the real world
can find all those killer defensive lines. 7.645 tricks/board is low.
Expect approximately 8.
Is 5332 a flat pattern? It is relative. 5332 is the third flattest of 39
possible patterns. Only 4333 and 4432 are flatter. When pard knows
you hold five in the suit 5332 IS the flattest possible pattern. 1M-4M
with 5332 must have netted some poor results. With normalized HCP
and a known 5-4 trump fit 5332 will generate less than 9 tricks.
a) 5332 // 4243
b) 5332 // 4234
Do these two joint patterns generate the same expected tricks?
I don't know. Guessing it will be close with a) slightly higher.
c) 5431 // 4333
Does c) generate more or less tricks than a) and b)?
All SST=4 are not equal. Expect fewer than 9 tricks whenever the
SST => 4. Expect more the 9 tricks whenever the SST =< 3.
Joint patterns which generate fewer tricks than trumps are arbitrarily
defined as flat.