[lxt08]

hi all

I BBO ID lxt08

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up is 2/1 and prec bid

E lead c10 c5 ca ck
back d8 dk d9 d5
Declare hk h2 h4 E c3

Declare how to make?

[inquiry]

lxt08, on 2013-July-21, 04:24, said:

hi all

I BBO ID lxt08

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up is 2/1 and prec bid

E lead c10 c5 ca ck
back d8 dk d9 d5
Declare hk h2 h4 E c3

Declare how to make?

Win trick two with the ACE, not the KING, might be best approach.

East will have six clubs. With seven, he would have continued a club, with five, he would not be bidding 3♣ (or 2♣).

One easy way to make is for West to have the ♣T7 doubleton. Not very likely, and especially if East is a beginner type person (where is the club two?), but t cost nothing to discover it. Win second heart in dummy, play club nine, ruffing high just in case when East covers. Assume West follows low. Now setting up a club by force is out of the question. East is most likely 4=0=3=6 or 3=0=4=6 as suits split tend to be balanced (and if he had 5♦ or 5♠ he might have chosen a two suited overcall).

You have six hearts, two diamonds, and you can ruff a spade or set a spade up by force. If you can win one spade and ruff one spade that is 10 tricks, but that requires you guess right (if possible) in spades. So you could win third heart in dummy and lead towards the ♠KJ and hope you guess right. This is 50%

I would play for an elimination and hope to get the ending right. After ruffing the club and no drop of the club seven, I would pull the last trump, cash the diamond winner and exit a diamond. If West wins as expected from this line of defense, he can not lead afford to lead a spade as that solves your problem. If he had only three diamonds (say QJ9), he would be forced to lead a spade and you would make. So lets assume he can exit a diamond. On a diamond exit, he will be either 4=3=4=2 or 3=3=5=2 (you will know which by how many diamonds East had). If West had five diamonds, you might a well go ahead and ruff in dummy (trick nine) and play a spade hoping to get the suit right. If he had only four diamonds, discard a spade from dummy and ruff in hand.

After you ruff the diamond in hand exit a small spade towards dummy's ten. If East wins the queen, he has to lead either a club either from his J7 or his stiff jack and you with 86 in dummy. If he leads high, your ruff and dummy is good. If he leads low, you run it to the dummy's eight and cross-ruff the last two tricks. If he returns a spade -- it will either be the ACE or you have a ruffing finesse of the ♠A for all the tricks. Thus, you make anytime East has the spade queen. Should West win the spade queen when you exit a small spade towards the ten, East best defense it to come down to one club and two spaded.

It is not "cold", but you make anytime East has the Spade queen, or West has the ♠AQ. This is significantly more than 50%. a few ideas to consider. There are some non-mathematical things you might also want to consider based upon what you know about East.

Would he double with 2♥ with ♠Axxx ♥void ♦xxx ♣AQJxxx instead of bidding 3♣?
Would he bid 3♣ instead of 2♣ with ♠Qxxx ♥void ♦xxx ♣AQJ7xx, and things like that.

Still I like this line, as it makes when the ♠Q is onside or the ♠AQ is offside (without the five=two diamond split).

What if East wins the third round of diamonds? You are back in the quess spades right situation if he returns a spade, but you are no worse off than the minimum line of guessing spades right.

[nige1]

lxt08, on 2013-July-21, 04:24, said:

E lead c10 c5 ca ck
back d8 dk d9 d5
Declare hk h2 h4 E c3

Declare how to make?

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I like inquiry's line but here's an alternative: Win ♦A, ♥KA, ♣9 covered and ruffed high. If ♣7 drops, you can set up a ♣ trick. Otherwise cross to ♥Q (drawing the last trump), run ♠T (If RHO covers, or LHO wins with ♠A, then you can claim). When LHO wins with ♠Q and exits in ♦, win ♦A, and lead a ♠. You still crawl home if RHO has a doubleton ♦ and ♠A.