[MickyB]

Do you double, and what's your lead? Pips outside trumps are approximate

---

[Codo]

They seldom will make an overtrick... so I would double. I lead a diamond.

[rogerclee]

Definitely double, I would just go passive and lead a club.

[Bussy]

No double & ♣ lead. Worst case scenario QJ offside. Otherwise a good declarer may find an endplay in ♥.
East can be very strong with 5431 & 20-21 hcp's....

[ArtK78]

And my fourth trick is........?

Pass and lead a club. I am not getting rich here unless my opps are really way overboard, in which case I will score just fine. But doubling could conceivably cost a trick, and it might be the 10th trick.

Sometimes bridge is like poker. When an opponent raises, sometimes they really do have a good hand. Here, they may have everything except for what I see in front of me.

[the hog]

Pass and also lead a C. The doublers are looking for Dorothy but have found the Mad Hatter instead.

[MickyB]

I doubled and led a club, this was -790. A diamond is +200, a spade or a top trump is +800. I wondered after if there was a case for a top trump, even with QJ on your right you often won't have four trump tricks.

The opposing hands were -

JTx
xxxx
KQ9xx
x

xxx
QJxxx
A
AKQJ

A diamond lead allows you to play another round when you ruff the 4th club which messes up the timing for the endplay.

[rogerclee]

Without exaggerating at all, I have to be very clear and say that passing vs doubling 4H in this spot is not a matter of opinion, it is absolutely horrible to not double 4H with this hand, and I am 100% sure this is the case. I love to play bridge against people who are scared of their own shadow and refuse to rip me when they nearly have me beat in their own hand due to an unforeseen 4-0 trump break and I obviously have nowhere to run.

You are just passing up huge opportunities if you don't double 4H with essentially 3.3 tricks in trumps when they are vulnerable and are probably pushing a little hoping for good breaks and trumps are 4-0. I would be disappointed to get only 200 with this hand, and losing 3 imps on every single down 1 hand is an absurdly negative position to be in, not to mention down 2+.

And for what? Are you really so scared of losing 5 imps the maybe (generously) 15% of the time they make? And before you say they might redouble, shut up, they are missing AKT9 of trumps, this is such a remote concern that you are clutching at straws if you actually think this is a valid reason.

[MrAce]

I would % 100 double, but i am not so sure if i would find the non club lead. I probably would lead a club for -790.

Fwiw, i totally agree with Roger about the DBL.

[gnasher]

rogerclee, on 2013-June-10, 22:27, said:

And for what? Are you really so scared of losing 5 imps the maybe (generously) 15% of the time they make? And before you say they might redouble, shut up, they are missing AKT9 of trumps, this is such a remote concern that you are clutching at straws if you actually think this is a valid reason.

Those aren't the only risks: sometimes the double converts +100 into -790, for a cost of 13 IMPs. It appears that that's what happened at the table. I'd still double though.

[benlessard]

Assuming its imps (at MP even with a monkey as a partner you need to double and hope he doesnt revoke too often) with AKT8 I still think double is automatic, and Im sure I would double with AKT7 because of all the +500 vs +200 im going to get or lose if I dont double.

I would lead a club, like MickyB however ive noticed that on similar hand a top trump often work as well. The risk of losing a trump trick is often compensated by removing dummy trumps or by avoiding a blind lead.

I not really suggesting to lead the A of H here but Im wondering if someone else think that a top trump lead might not be so crazy after all.

[WellSpyder]

Like most, I think double is pretty automatic here, and I expect I would produce the same unfortunate result MickyB did.

Just as a matter of general principle, though, I would like to object to the title of this thread. Too many times I have seen my partner double and then think about what to lead, eg against an opposing 3NT bid optimistically. My view is that it is generally only once you know what you are going to lead that you can decide whether you want to make a penalty double or not.

[ArtK78]

I can only bring up the name of Norman Kay as one who (I am reasonably sure) would not double on this hand.

I played against Norman on a couple of occasions, and I am a distant cousin of Judy Kay (Wolff). Norman was very conservative in his doubling. I suspect that he would consider this hand a full trick short of a double.

(On the other hand, when Norman did double you, you could be sure that you were going down - lol).

I experienced this first hand in a Vanderbilt match against Norman and Edgar, when Norman did not double me in a very optimistic 4♠ contract despite his holding 3 nearly certain trump tricks and a side ace. I had to play the hand very carefully to hold it to down 2.

While I don't disagree that you rate to beat 4♥ on the hand in the OP, it is certainly true that your chances of going plus go down when you double. Of course, your chances at getting a very large plus go up, especially if the opps have truly misjudged the auction and partner has a trick or two.

[jogs]

What's the form of the game?
If they have done sometime stupid,
what difference does it make whether
we beat them one doubled or undoubled?

[the hog]

Let me be very clear on this. Double is not "being afraid of one's shadow". It is absolutely horrible to double on a hand like this. You may well convert +100 into -790 with a foolish double like this.

[MickyB]

Sorry I forgot the scoring [again]. The hands I posted were all IMPs. I think I've not got used to the "new" BBF not including the scoring in the diagram.

[Fluffy]

-790 for me, my second lead after a club was a top heart.


It could be an interesting thing for simulating/bridgebrowser, autodouble with AKx(x) on this auction, lead AK trumps, make the correct play/switch at trick 3 (or 2 if partner is discarding at first trick) and see if it is a winner.

[Fluffy]

gnasher, on 2013-June-11, 00:59, said:

Those aren't the only risks: sometimes the double converts +100 into -790, for a cost of 13 IMPs. It appears that that's what happened at the table. I'd still double though.

I agree with you, but then, if you double with worse hands also you can protect some of those sometimes.