[32519]

Board 5 from a club match:
Would you make a Michael's overcall with this powerhouse?

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[nigel_k]

I definitely would. With this much shape and at this vulnerability, there will very often be a cheap save and it will be hard to act later. It may go 1♦-3♦-5♦ or even 1♦-3♦-3NT and you are fixed.

I would consider it close (but still do it) if we were vulnerable, or non vul if only 5-5.

The hands to be careful on are ones like Axxxx Kxxxx xx x where we have defence and may go for a number when their contract doesn't make.

[gszes]

there are times one has to trade quality for flexibility and
this hand is a great example. If p was a passed hand I
would bid michales in a heartbeat at favorable since it
quickly shows 2 ways we can make a save and I can subside
thereafter. The downside of michaels here opposite an unpassed
p is we will frequently get too high when p has "stuff". Those
losses will generally be small and might even win against
part scores. We will gain huge when p can find a useful
sacrifice that would never be found if we are silent.

When we are even vul the odds of a successful sac go down
but might still be worthwhile if Nvul. Would never think about
Michales at unfavorable since the only time we have a chance of
being right is when p is very strong and we will most likely
get a chance to hear that on their next turn to bid.

[the_clown]

I would bid at this colours and its not close.

[32519]

As the dealer you are now looking at this:

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Your bid? 5♣ seems easy, but what if you miss a ♣ slam? Maybe 5♣ is too high? You are not sure what East actually holds in the ♥ suit.

[wank]

most people play 3c as non-forcing, so no thoughts of slam. in fact 5c and 4s can easily be both going off.

[32519]

wank, on 2013-May-13, 08:31, said:

most people play 3c as non-forcing, so no thoughts of slam. in fact 5c and 4s can easily be both going off.

I like this. 3♥ and 3♠ would therefore be forcing. Implying what though? A stopper searching for 3NT maybe?

[manudude03]

3M should be splinters (at least imo), you have 2M available. It's not uncommon to play 2H as forcing raise and 2S as forcing in the 4th suit (some play it the other way around).

[32519]

manudude03, on 2013-May-13, 08:55, said:

3M should be splinters (at least imo), you have 2M available. It's not uncommon to play 2H as forcing raise and 2S as forcing in the 4th suit (some play it the other way around).

This is also good. How about using 2M as game invitational (whatever meaning you and partner assign to the bid) and 3M as game force, slam try not excluded (again, whatever meaning you and partner assign to the 3M bid).

[mycroft]

No I would not. Because I don't know what it is.

I might make a Michaels Cuebid, though...

(yes, I'm being petty. Yes, this one annoys me more than most, for reasons that might be understandable to people who have been reading me for a while).

[blackshoe]

Mycroft posted what was going through my head as I read this thread.

[Lord Molyb]

blackshoe, on 2013-May-13, 12:06, said:

Mycroft posted what was going through my head as I read this thread.

[32519]

This was the full hand:

---

This was a truly bizarre hand where E/W can make 4♠ on a combined 9 HCP. 34 was a top. At one table East bid to 5♠ undoubled which only goes down 1 for an outright top. At least half the field found the minor suit slam, mostly in ♣. We still managed to score above average here when N/S stopped in 5♦ at our table.

[the hog]

I do not play 3M as a stopper ask, nor as a splinter. 3H shows long C and 4D, 3S shows long D and 4C, both gf of course.

[Antrax]

Conventions work better when your opponents have no defense to them.

[gwnn]

[uhhlv]

West 4 Sp bid is not good. A Michaels Cue should be either weak or strong, especially at this vulnerable. A weak Michaels Cue is very, very much more often than a strong one. With a weak cue partner normally has 0-1 Defense tricks. So with Wests hand I m sure that the opps game chances are about 99%. To beat a slam partner needs either the ass of hearts or he has a defense trick and we get a spade trick. And sometimes slam is made nevertheless when slam depends from the attack. So the slam chances for the opps are very good.
If East has the worst possible hand (xxxxx,Xxxxx,xx,x) we only loose 4.5 tricks. But then slam is very very likely except partner has a heart trick and we get the spade trick, too. So 6 spade is mostly a good defense against slam AND game.
There might be different strategies for west. You can bid the spades slow and decide to bid 6 spade later. But against good opps I m worried about a possible grand slam. Than a slow 6 spade bid might assist the opps in reaching the Grand.
So I would prefer to bid 6 spade as wests first bid. And if East has a strong Cue against west´s expectations, 6 spade might be a good contract, too.
At this hand advanced opps should reach 6 clubs or diamonds after the 4 Spade bid. The main reason for missing the slam are opps missing agreements against Michaels.