[the hog]

 lamford, on 2013-April-19, 07:32, said:

Interestingly, the "Gawrys defence to a strong NT" is:
"Double: Promises a single-suited holding with Clubs or Diamonds, or a two-suited holding with both Hearts and Spades."
Clearly these silly methods were not the reason he was a member of the "only Polish team to win two World Championship events".

Just because Piotr plays these methods does not mean they are ideal. Have you not seen many top/world class players play inferior method? Putting a 2 suited M holding in with a single suited minor hand is poor practise. Show your major suite holdings as quickly as possible. (By the way, Gawrys did not play this method when I played against him a number of years ago).

[lamford]

 FrancesHinden, on 2013-April-19, 15:43, said:

The problem with your simulation is that it doesn't take into account partner's pass over 3S. But given that partner passed on a hand that both you and I think should have bid, it's hard to draw conclusions from this.
Nor does it take into account the fact that opener on the actual hand had a 13 count.

p.s. there's no reason not to think that bidding 4H isn't +590/+690 rather than +450.

If I were to exclude the hands that would have bid 4H, as you, I and PhilKing think my partner should have done, then that makes passing and leading a low spade even better. The reason that a high spade worked on the actual hand was that partner had Axxx in hearts and we could cash the first eleven tricks! The one hand where 4H made in the simulation was similar, partner having xx Qxxx Kxxx xxx, so one +590 would only change the average by 170/24, about 7 points, and I think you would exclude that hand as it would bid 4H.

I only know the auction on two other tables, which was 1NT - (2C - Landy) - 3NT. On one this hand backed in with double, and the opponents ran to 5C-1. On gnasher's they led a top spade for +700. Simulating just this auction makes a low spade best, but not by such a margin, as now they can have Jx opposite Qx.

And yes the opener did have a 13 count. Perhaps they should have alerted 1NT as 15-17 but maybe less with a long minor. But I have no idea how regular this deviation would be. I don't think it changes the odds much, as the redoubler might have more.

[lamford]

 the hog, on 2013-April-19, 19:31, said:

Just because Piotr plays these methods does not mean they are ideal. Have you not seen many top/world class players play inferior method? Putting a 2 suited M holding in with a single suited minor hand is poor practise. Show your major suite holdings as quickly as possible. (By the way, Gawrys did not play this method when I played against him a number of years ago).

http://www.bridgeguy...convention.html and
http://www.bridgeguy..._1_notrump.html
give a similar defence to 1NT. In the case of Meckwell, 2C shows clubs and a major, whereas with Gawrys it shows clubs and another. In both cases, the double shows a minor or both majors, slightly different to our method. As PhilKing states, Meckwell still play the defence, so I would bow to their superior knowledge.

At Brighton, in a side game, Gold and Cope were playing a similar method against a weak NT!

[rhm]

 lamford, on 2013-April-20, 05:21, said:

The reason that a high spade worked on the actual hand was that partner had Axxx in hearts and we could cash the first eleven tricks!

The reason you choose a high card is exactly that you can switch, admittedly at a price.
I know I do not have an outside entry, but against that if dummy has long clubs you may well not afford to loose the lead even once.
I would also not be surprised finding ♠Jx or xx in dummy and declarer having bid 3NT with ♠Qx
It has happened to me and I have bid 3NT with Qx and made my contract against a furious opponent, who had preempted in the suit and led low.

Rainer Herrmann

[lamford]

 rhm, on 2013-April-20, 14:42, said:

I would also not be surprised finding ♠Jx or xx in dummy and declarer having bid 3NT with ♠Qx

I would also not be surprised finding Jx opposite Qxx, Jxx opposite Qx or xx opposite QJx. On all of those I want to lead a small spade.

[the hog]

 lamford, on 2013-April-20, 05:32, said:

http://www.bridgeguy...convention.html and
http://www.bridgeguy..._1_notrump.html
give a similar defence to 1NT. In the case of Meckwell, 2C shows clubs and a major, whereas with Gawrys it shows clubs and another. In both cases, the double shows a minor or both majors, slightly different to our method. As PhilKing states, Meckwell still play the defence, so I would bow to their superior knowledge.

At Brighton, in a side game, Gold and Cope were playing a similar method against a weak NT!

Not SLIGHTLY different at all - significantly different. I suggest you re read my post and think about how bad the method you are playing actually is.

[rhm]

 lamford, on 2013-April-20, 16:23, said:

I would also not be surprised finding Jx opposite Qxx, Jxx opposite Qx or xx opposite QJx. On all of those I want to lead a small spade.

Sorry, but in this case I can not accept how you shortened my comment.

I myself said that choosing to lead a high spade has a price.
I am well aware that a low spade might be needed to beat the contract, but it puts all your eggs in one basket, that is spades.
I only wanted to point out that even if spades is right a top spade could be right.
Your spade layouts may be more numerous.
But for a low spade to be successful also requires that declarer must loose the lead before he has 9 tricks.

Rainer Herrmann

[FrancesHinden]

 lamford, on 2013-April-20, 16:23, said:

I would also not be surprised finding Jx opposite Qxx, Jxx opposite Qx or xx opposite QJx. On all of those I want to lead a small spade.

Would you be surprised if declarer had 4 spades, partner had one, dummy had two and partner had the queen of hearts and a minor suit entry?
The one thing you know for certain from the auction is that partner doesn't have a spade honour.

[rhm]

deleted

[PhilKing]

I just came across a recent board where Meckstroth held:

♠A96
♥J
♦AKJT73
♣J75

And righty opened a 15-17 NT at game all. It did not end well - -800 versus on a partscore.

No biggie - it wasn't as if it was in the 2009 Bermuda Bowl Final. To be fair, they still won comfortably.

http://www.bridgetoe...hp/home/search2

Clicky

[rhm]

 PhilKing, on 2013-April-21, 19:11, said:

I just came across a recent board where Meckstroth held:

♠A96
♥J
♦AKJT73
♣J75

And righty opened a 15-17 NT at game all. It did not end well - -800 versus on a partscore.

No biggie - it wasn't as if it was in the 2009 Bermuda Bowl Final. To be fair, they still won comfortably.

http://www.bridgetoe...hp/home/search2

Clicky

Clicky does not work

Rainer Herrmann

[lamford]

 FrancesHinden, on 2013-April-21, 06:44, said:

Would you be surprised if declarer had 4 spades, partner had one, dummy had two and partner had the queen of hearts and a minor suit entry?
The one thing you know for certain from the auction is that partner doesn't have a spade honour.

In the 24 hands I dealt, the nearest to that was x Qxxx J10xxx Qxx, but Deep Finesse made five clubs, three diamonds and a heart on any lead; on that hand partner should bid 4H as well. None of the seven hands in the simulation where partner had a singleton spade were beatable. In none of the 12 hands where it could be beaten did partner have a spade honour, and the absence of one makes it much more likely he has two spades than three, making the low spade a big winner. The "dealing program" has five spades to distribute between three hands, making partner's share 1.67.

[PhilKing]

 rhm, on 2013-April-22, 03:39, said:

Clicky does not work

Rainer Herrmann

Does it get you to the site? If so, type AKJT73 J75 in the search box.

[lamford]

 PhilKing, on 2013-April-22, 06:57, said:

Does it get you to the site? If so, type AKJT73 J75 in the search box.

I get six results for that. A96 J AKJT73 gets two. The second is the 3DX-3. And Rodwell's 2H looks to be to blame.

[PhilKing]

 lamford, on 2013-April-22, 07:26, said:

I get six results for that. A96 J AKJT73 gets two. The second is the 3DX-3. And Rodwell's 2H looks to be to blame.

Yeah, that turned -200 into -800, but double turned -90 into -200. I just don't see the attraction of coming in with these hands except when the opponents are NV and it is matchpoints.