[djehuti]

AT82
K43
For 3 tricks.


a) K, finesse T, A
b) K, finesse 8, finesse T

My math tells me that both lines are equal. However, from suitplay:

SUITPLAY - needing 3 tricks:
b) best (Gets 3 tricks more often on average)
MP's
a) best.
IMPS
3NT White, No doubles
a) b) same
3NT VUL, No doubles
b) best
3NT White/VUL Doubled/Redoubled
a) best

What happens when either 9 or H appears on RHO on the 1st trick:
a) finesse 8
b) A

I think i suspect why B is better but its just too complicated and i'm really not sure... maybe i'm missing something and the reason is simple?

[Siegmund]

Quote

AT82
K43
For 3 tricks.

a) K, finesse T, A
b) K, finesse 8, finesse T

My math tells me that both lines are equal. However, from suitplay:

They both work on the same number of combinations. A beats B 7 times (one 5-1 break, three 4-2s, three 3-3s) and B beatsA 7 times (six 4-2 breaks, one 3-3 break.) The 5-1 break is enough less frequent to give B a very very tiny edge.

[Fluffy]

If you are playing towards the 8 for 4 tricks in MPs, suitplay will falsecard from QJ9 and H9

[djehuti]

Yeah i know, i was thinking that the falsecards, when declarer's intention is for the max, had influence on how many times 9x would appear. Line a) attemps the max, line b) doesn't. But Siegmund's reasoning seems right and simpler.