[zasanya]

N passes East bids 1Spade South Passes West 3NT all pass

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Opponents bidding not very trustworthy but yr P might dbl if she wants a spade lead.
Questions
1) What would you lead?
2) If you decide ♣ which card?

[Cyberyeti]

What form of scoring ?

[Mbodell]

It would help if the opponents agreements, if any, were told. Some play 3nt shows a specific hand type and count (like 13-15 and 4m333; or others 13-15 with 4432 with 2 spades). Others might bid it on a T hand (a long running minor and short red stoppers). Any lead could be right or wrong. It might also help to know if you play any form of smith (a low club lead is more attractive if you are likely to be able to signal dislike based on dummy and T1).

1. I probably lead the ♥3. This might blow a trick, but if partner gets in (it is likely partner has 1 trick on this auction), then I may well get 3 tricks on the returned heart.

2. If I lead clubs, which would be my top contender with the hearts, I lead the 4th best 3.

[PhilKing]

Club three.

[zasanya]

Cyberyeti, on 2013-January-25, 03:30, said:

What form of scoring ?

The scoring was IMPs.
Would your lead be different at MPs?

[JLOGIC]

Not that thrilled to lead the 3 but we have to since the ten is too likely to blow up. Never leading a heart.

[kayin801]

The only lead I'd consider besides a club is a diamond but even that is bleh. I would lead the systemic low club, not the systemic honor.

[mikeh]

I'd lead a heart (and I suspect so would everyone else) if we had 5 of them, since then we rate to have a beat if partner has an entry, and we are never beating this if he doesn't. But a heart now may give them a trick and almost certainly a tempo, and meanwhile at best means we need 2 more tricks outside. Since declarer usually has a path to 8 tricks on these auctions, I don't want to give him his 9th right away.

A small club may not work out either, but it has to be the percentage play. I hope I am playing some form of smith (tho my spade spots may make it tough for partner to read if/when declarer goes after that suit.

[FM75]

Partner could have as much as AK, to give you a chance. Where?
No double rules out spades, and there you need to get 2 hearts and a diamond. Hearts ruled out since declarer is presumed sane
If he has diamonds, W probably is not bidding 3NT. Would west bid 3N on QJx in clubs with lead coming to his hand?

If so, then it seems like you have a decent chance of taking 3 clubs and two hearts, or a chance at 2 clubs, 2 hearts, and a slow diamond?

P takes AK♣ and exits in clubs?

Are there any lines with split honors that would still work?

[CSGibson]

club, especially if playing some sort of Smith where I can later discourage clubs. There is a convincing study that shows, double dummy, that leading your 2nd best 4 card suit is better than leading your best one, probably because you can use the honor cards in your best 4 card suit for entries. Beyond that, I think leading away from AQxx against NT to be among the worst possible leads (and leading from AQxxx one of the best possible leads, incidentally)

[mike777]

zasanya, on 2013-January-25, 03:16, said:

N passes East bids 1Spade South Passes West 3NT all pass

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Opponents bidding not very trustworthy but yr P might dbl if she wants a spade lead.
Questions
1) What would you lead?
2) If you decide ♣ which card?

Great post, thanks for posting Zasanya

I found the problem tough and the answers very helpful, thanks.

[akhare]

♣4 for me (playing low from interest leads) -- and when I follow up with Smith / ♣3 (whichever comes sooner), pard will know that we have no interest in the suit.

It would have been nice to have a higher spot to make things more clear immediately, but leading the T is probably risky...

[Zelandakh]

An extra question here. If you were playing Journalist Leads or the equivalent, where the ♣9 would promise the Ten but no higher honour, would that encourage you to try it, or still stick with the ♣3?

[FM75]

Zelandakh, on 2013-January-26, 08:37, said:

Ab extra question here. If you were playing Journalist Leads or the equivalent, where the ♣9 would promise the Ten but no higher honour, would that encourage you to try it, or still stick with the ♣3?

I have mentally placed cards where I need them to beat the contract. If I am right, and clubs are 4333, I need partner to knock out the last honor. I would lead the three hoping that he will infer that I have four. He would probably have expected a heart lead from me. If your partner would lead the third club after seeing 9x from you, then the 9 is ok.

If I am wrong, then the 9 does give him useful information. That might be best if our tricks are a club, 2 diamonds and 2 hearts. That seems less likely to work, to me.

[JLOGIC]

Zelandakh, on 2013-January-26, 08:37, said:

An extra question here. If you were playing Journalist Leads or the equivalent, where the ♣9 would promise the Ten but no higher honour, would that encourage you to try it, or still stick with the ♣3?

I would be more tempted but still scared to blow up the suit. Admittedly I have no experience playing journalist

[Vampyr]

JLOGIC, on 2013-January-25, 12:08, said:

Never leading a heart.

Why? It was my first instinct.

[zasanya]

Thank you all. Just to complete the story. The hand occured in the Intermediate advanced club ladder match in which some of my friends particpated. While reviewing this hand after the match I had suggested to them that experts would not have made the ♥ lead. While they were polite enough not to disagree I suspected I hadn't convinced some of them. BTW as mentioned in my OP the supposedly 2/1 bidding is quite strange but it doesn't take away the main point re opening lead .Right?
The full hand

comments

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[Antrax]

The full hand

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[ArtK78]

zasanya, on 2013-January-28, 09:23, said:

Thank you all. Just to complete the story. The hand occured in the Intermediate advanced club ladder match in which some of my friends particpated. While reviewing this hand after the match I had suggested to them that experts would not have made the ♥ lead. While they were polite enough not to disagree I suspected I hadn't convinced some of them. BTW as mentioned in my OP the supposedly 2/1 bidding is quite strange but it doesn't take away the main point re opening lead .Right?
The full hand

comments

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Yes, the bidding is odd. But it is of no real concern.

A more common sequence would be:

1♣ - 1♥
1♠ - 2NT
?

East's rebid could be 1NT with 4333 distribution, but not bidding the AKQJ of spades at some point in the auction seems silly.

[Zelandakh]

Where I come from, a more common sequence would be:

1NT - 2♣;
2♠ - 2NT;
P/3NT