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Eight bottoms in one night How can so many reasonable decisions go wrong?

#1 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2013-January-17, 18:02

Just got back from probably a 40% game (handicapped though, so maybe around 30% overall) and I just can't believe how so many reasonable decisions can go wrong. We got no fewer than eight bottoms (estimated) and plenty of other bad boards.

On the upside, there were plenty of interesting hands. Here's some I'd love to hear your thoughts on. Playing MPs, 4cM and weak NT throughout.

1) First round, partner picks up Kx Q8xxxx xxx Ax. Third in vul vs not, who's with him in opening a weak two?

2) Second in, all green this happened:



Lead is the King of hearts, then he crosses to his partner's Ace and they return a third heart, I ruffed in hand. How to tackle the spades?

3) Vs the best pair in the club, 1NT from partner (12-14), second in vul vs not. Double from RHO and I'm holding 9xx 9x Axxx K109x. Leave it in or run away?

4) Same pair, partner opened 1H on J105 KQ73 Q85 AK6 and RHO overcalls 1S, passed back to partner. Anyone with him in passing it out, or should he reopen (with a double)?

5) First in vul vs not, what do you open with A AJ75 AK6 AJ643? Your choices are 1C (nat 4+), 2C (planning to show either 22-23 BAL or a two-suiter with clubs and hearts), or 2NT (20-21 BAL).

6) What do you lead?


7) ATB:


This slam stood no chance, since hearts were J10xx offside and diamonds were Qxx offside, but even barring the bad breaks it looks shakier than a person scared of ghosts playing Pacman. Who got overexcited?

8) ATB:


1NT only just made after tiptop defence from North (winning the first club with the King, then underleading his remaining AJxx to score partner's ten, later coming to the HQ and the remaining clubs). 2H+1 on the other hand would be a joint top. Does East have a better bid or should West remove 1NT to 2D?

Hmm, I think that's enough hands. (Apologies for bunging them all in one thread, I prefer that to thread spam - it keeps the forums neater and it's easier to reply to everyone).

ahydra

ps. When I tell you what actually happened, it'll be a rather embarassing 1000th post! Edit: hmm, it says I have 1000, but in my profile it says 999. I'm confused.

Edit 2: Someone fixed the hand viewers on IE! Excellent! :-)
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#2 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2013-January-17, 18:18

Too many hands in the post.

1) Lol at the 2H openng. This is really bad.

2) Cash the K of S and run the T

3) Use my run outs to play in 2m

4) Of course I pass it out.

5) 1C

6) D4.

7) Both

8) Of course w should remove 1NT. Now you will play in 2H
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#3 User is offline   gartinmale 

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Posted 2013-January-17, 18:39

1. Not me.

3. Run.

4. If the field is opening this 1NT, I will reopen. If they are also playing a 12-14 NT, then I will pass.

5. 1C.

6. Heart.

Thinking about the others.
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#4 User is offline   lalldonn 

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Posted 2013-January-17, 19:15

View Postthe hog, on 2013-January-17, 18:18, said:

2) Cash the K of S and run the T

If you want to play south for Jxxx of spades you have to finesse on the first round. If you cash the K and then finesse spades then when you give up a diamond and another heart comes back you are SOL.

As for what I actually do, tough choice. It's a weird hand since north didn't go for a diamond ruff and south didn't go for a club ruff, nor did south raise hearts or north open a weak two bid. I really can't construct a layout consistent with all that unless one or the other has badly misdefended or bid strangely. I'm pretty sure at mps I will just spades from the top. Hooking the first round is too big of a position for me, i.e. if I'm wrong that way I have a nice pretty bottom, but if I'm wrong playing spades from the top I expect some matchpoints at any club I've played at.
"What's the big rebid problem? After 1♦ - 1♠, I can rebid 1NT, 2♠, or 2♦."
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#5 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2013-January-17, 19:43

1) 2H is ridiculous. You can debate 1H vs pass, but 2H is just atrocious.

2) Not that you asked, but the 4S bid is very bad. Partner rates to have 2 spades on this auction. Just double 3C, if partner has 3 spades they can always compete to 3S over 3H, or bid 4S, or rip them if we have them for a number. Having them for a number is incredibly likely also, RHO is a passed hand and his partner didn't raise to 3H.

Edit: Also I now realize you play 4 card majors, so maybe partner doesn't rate to have 2 spades if you can be 42(43) lol. That said, I would still double with the east hand.

As far as what happened, I don't get what happened. LHO led the HK then a low heart to partner and a heart came back? Does it look like LHO has KQxx of hearts? The whole hand is bizarre, but it looks like RHO has only 4 clubs (LHO would raise with 4 hearts and a stiff club, and would probably lead or shift to their stiff club?)

Anyways, I don't think I need to make a decision now, I will play the DK and see what happens. I am probably going to play RHO for 2524 (lol). I mean with 1534 I assume they would double 2S. But I am gonna see what happens, namely the diamond count given by LHO, and also whether they play a fourth heart.

3) Run

4) Pass it out for sure. Partner couldn't bid over 1S and I have spade length. I admit I have no experience with weak NT + 4 card majors, but the hand is so bad it's like a weak NT hand type anyways with which I would always pass out 1S with JTx.

5) 1C. I will bid hearts next. I don't see why this would be a problem or why one would show a balanced hand with a prime hand and no rebid problems and a stiff.

6) A diamond seems like it must be right.

7) I don't understand the 2S bid, why not 3D? 6D is a pretty good spot. I don't really get the 4H bid either, why not 3H? The east hand is not worth a GF to begin with, and all partner has done is rebid spades and fail to raise hearts, so it's an overbid, but even if east is going to GF then 4H is a misbid. We might have, you know, no heart fit. Partner will pass with like 7-0 in the majors. Bidding 3D seems right, partner will bid 3H with a doubleton, might be able to bid 3N with short hearts and club help, and apparently might have 5 diamonds lol. If partner bids 3S we can guess between 3N and 4H and 4S but we haven't lost anything (and it's probably right to pass lol). Having bid 2S I can't say I fault the keycard bid, west has a monster.

8) Interesting hand, east has an interesting problem, but I think 1N is the wrong bid. We are getting a club lead through, and RHO has shown 5+ clubs. Whether east should double or bid 2H is a different question. West might have removed to 2D, but with Kxx and Q in the blacks I understand why they chose to pass.
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#6 User is offline   the_clown 

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Posted 2013-January-18, 04:23

1. I like opening 3. seat a lot and maybe I can talk myself in opening this 1 at MP, but I would never open 2.
2. I would finess South
3. Pass
4. If he reopens, he should reopen with 1N IMO. I have never played weak NT so I have no experience with this but pass and 1N look both reasonable.
5. 1 then reverse in , this is really obvious.
6.
7. West
8. Bad luck
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#7 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2013-January-18, 05:45

I agree with Justin on virtually all of this, my only comments on his comments are:

4: Even playing 4 card majors, I might well have opened this 1, then I would reopened with a double, having opened 1 I'll pass.

7: 2 is normal in this system, I'd bid 3 rather than 4 from the other hand possibly leading to the decent 6.

8: Interesting question, what is X of 1 by E if you don't play any form of support doubles ? I'd like it to be this sort of hand with a semi penalty X of spades (a full blown pen X prob overcalled) and a club holding (possibly full blown penalty X) but don't think it is. 1x or 2x are quite likely your best route to a score
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#8 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2013-January-19, 17:45

Some interesting comments here, thanks.

1) I'm guessing it is the poor suit quality that makes people hate this weak 2 opening. It was certainly a contributing factor to the ensuing -500.

2) I did cash the A and finesse the 10 (not spotting the flaw in the line that lalldonn points out), which is apparently 82% if North has 10 rounded-suit cards. But what do you know, North has something like 3505 including the Jack of spades, one down, ah well. Of course "everyone" else at the club doesn't know to adjust odds for opps bidding and/or didn't hear so much from North, so played spades from the top.

Playing 4cM, I think partner will 90%+ of the time have three spades on this auction, since otherwise he would bid a minor (or if he did have 2533, he'd pass!). It's interesting whether 2NT should be scrambling here though - I think it should be to help find a minor fit.

3) This one is interesting. Why are people saying "run"? I've been on the wrong end of a hand where a similar 7-count even REDOUBLED and scored up 1160 before, so I thought pass was perfectly reasonable here. On this occasion North just runs AKQJxx spades and crosses to his partner's A, but it doesn't have to be that way, does it?

4) Another surprising set of answers for this one - if Pass is correct here maybe this is my fault - I had xxx A Kxxxxx xxx which I didn't think was enough for 2D. Should I be discussing negative free bids with my partner at this point? :)

5) I opened 1C, partner responded 1D. I jumped in hearts next, 3NT from partner who, holding a flat 11 count, got a bit worried when he saw the dummy and proceeded to score 720. I'm not convinced we would have got to slam if I did open 2NT though. Somehow I think it is up to partner in this case to do some slammish action eg 2S.

6) Here was the full hand (apologies for me editing the OP a couple of times as I tried to reconstruct it, spots are approximate):



I was East and my double was based on a) partner had jumped so the opps have at most 20 HCP, b) I have all their suits controlled and c) we are doing really badly. Partner led a spade to the J and Q, then declarer played the K which I won and returned another spade, partner cleared the suit. Declarer played a club to the Q and cashed two more hearts, then played a club to the J K and A. I cashed the 10 but dummy was now good.

Can I ask the experts why they would lead ? Should my partner have spotted he needs to switch to when in with the A?

7) Again I was East, and agree 3D is a much better bid than 4H if I am deciding to GF. I don't think GF'ing is unreasonable with this nice 11, well-placed K and 6-4 shape - 4H opposite a singleton can't go too badly can it? I'm a bit confused by JLOGIC's question "why not 3D [by West]" - we do not play 2/1, so that would show something bigger (at least 15 HCP). And 6D looks to be about 49% - hardly a great contract, but yes it is better than 6H. I think 3NT is the place to be (matchpoints lol), or failing that 5D, and we're not getting there unless I bid 3D.

8) Out of interest, how do people play X by East here? I normally play "takeout Xs when there's only one suit left" as value-showing, so I guess that would have worked here (partner bids diamonds and I correct). the hog states "Of course W should remove 1NT" - I'd like to hear why he thinks this is clear-cut; while the club holding is hardly great for NT, it does seems like there's a good chance of a huge misfit.

All input much appreciated. Clearly the decisions were not as clear-cut as I thought they were!

ahydra
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#9 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2013-January-20, 05:00

1. I don't mind opening Qxxxxx if it's all I've got at the right vulnerability, but Q 6th and lots outside is not a weak 2. Makes it more likely opps have no game.

3. Because there are very good odds you have a combined 19 count here, and if opps kick off with a decent lead, you'll go -2 even if they don't have a cashing suit (basically the tempo opps have is useful unless they find a bad lead). Also if you leave it in, LHO will remove it a lot of the time it makes, I'd rather play 2m than defend 2.

4. IMO just unlucky. 2 is no great picnic if diamonds are 3-1 and you may not beat 2 anyway if they are.

5. I really dislike systems where you have to bid 2 on this type. 1-1-1-2N would tell you that you were in the slam zone as would the 1-1-2N (artificial GF) type auction we'd use to your partner.

6. Clearing the spades is silly with no side entry. Where are partner's points ? Declarer appears to have Q and KQJ. He has at most 2 more points (does partner really x 1 with 2 spades and an 11 count ?) so partner has K, A, J, A. If declarer has 10 are you going to beat this ? Also your defence is bad. Declarer is short of entries to hand. Dummy is short of discards. Why not allow K to win ? He can't lead another heart without a massacre of dummy. There is no future in the spade suit unless partner has QJ, in which case declarer is probably going off anyway as he has no way back to hand other than by giving you K which is your 5th trick. There are lots of ways of doing better for both defenders, in fact it's pretty tricky to allow it to make.
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#10 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2013-January-20, 06:05

View PostCyberyeti, on 2013-January-20, 05:00, said:

5. I really dislike systems where you have to bid 2 on this type. 1-1-1-2N would tell you that you were in the slam zone as would the 1-1-2N (artificial GF) type auction we'd use to your partner.


Playing 1H as forcing one round isn't too unreasonable. But I feel 2H describes the hand in one go, whereas 1H and then trying to play catchup could be tricky, e.g. partner rebids 2D, now what? 4D is too unilateral particularly at matchpoints.

Quote

6. Clearing the spades is silly with no side entry. Where are partner's points ? Declarer appears to have Q and KQJ. He has at most 2 more points (does partner really x 1 with 2 spades and an 11 count ?) so partner has K, A, J, A. If declarer has 10 are you going to beat this ? Also your defence is bad. Declarer is short of entries to hand. Dummy is short of discards. Why not allow K to win ? He can't lead another heart without a massacre of dummy. There is no future in the spade suit unless partner has QJ, in which case declarer is probably going off anyway as he has no way back to hand other than by giving you K which is your 5th trick. There are lots of ways of doing better for both defenders, in fact it's pretty tricky to allow it to make.


I'm not sure I follow. If declarer (female btw) keeps leading hearts from the top, then no matter when I take the ace, I'm still in the same position am I not? Declarer can always play a club to the queen.

ahydra
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#11 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2013-January-20, 06:56

View Postahydra, on 2013-January-20, 06:05, said:

Playing 1H as forcing one round isn't too unreasonable. But I feel 2H describes the hand in one go, whereas 1H and then trying to play catchup could be tricky, e.g. partner rebids 2D, now what? 4D is too unilateral particularly at matchpoints.


A 3 splinter tells partner all he needs to know.


Quote

I'm not sure I follow. If declarer (female btw) keeps leading hearts from the top, then no matter when I take the ace, I'm still in the same position am I not? Declarer can always play a club to the queen.

ahydra

And if declarer plays a second heart, she has a choice of killing her diamond or spade guards, or discarding a winning club, it doesn't help.
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