Codo, on 2012-December-04, 04:10, said:
I would not bet that everybody plays 4 ♦ the way you do. And I am not sure whether it is better.
I know, but I am absolutely convinced it is superior when you start slam investigation at a low level and I am sure there is more support for this treatment at the top level than from second rate players. One strong proponent for this approach is Marshall Miles.
Control bidding has its place, but tends to be overrated by second rate players.
Quote
Do we really have more hands where we need to show the double fit to get to a better slam? Or do we need that bid to show a hand like KQTx,x,AKJ,Qxxxx?
I would bid 4
♦ here as well. But my bid shows real
♦ support and that diamonds are a source of tricks for slam.
It says nothing about clubs. My least worry with this hand is that partner, who has shown an above average opening hand, will not have a club control.
I am more interested in the question whether we should play six or seven spades.
But certainly under different, unfortunate circumstances I might reach a slam off two top tricks in a side suit.
It happens. About every second leap. Sometimes you survive.
Meanwhile I will avoid slams, where the control situation might be adequate, but there are nowhere 12 tricks to be found, a much more frequent and severe problem if you analyze slam disasters and much more depressing, since the defense can do no wrong.
The actual hand is a good example. Most seem to suggest that you should make a slam try and continue with 4
♣.
If partner accepts you most likely will end up in 6
♠.
How likely will the trump suit be adequate?
We do not know whether partner has 3 honors in spades, but simple logic should tell you that this is unlikely given that of the outstanding 9 spade cards only 4 are honor cards.
The a priory chances are less than one in six. You have slightly better odds but not much, since your partner has bid strongly.
Of course you may make 6
♠ if partner has 2 honor cards like AKxx or AQxx or KQxx but chances are not good.
Remember that one third of the time spades will not break well scuppering even some slams, which would have been reasonable otherwise.
Rainer Herrmann