[sathyab]

---

3♥ is mixed raise in support of ♠.

[glen]

Is this a hesitation by E problem?

[aguahombre]

It certainly qualifies as an interesting hand for the Reisinger. If it were IMPS we would not be happy bidding their Spade game for them.

[sathyab]

aguahombre, on 2012-December-08, 09:28, said:

It certainly qualifies as an interesting hand for the Reisinger. If it were IMPS we would not be happy bidding their Spade game for them.

If bidding 4♣ is wrong you will almost surely hear from your opponents. Going for -300 on part score hands doesn't win you a board too often.

[lalldonn]

I'm not all that worried about getting doubled. It can happen (especially if they got me with a four card overcall) but that's too pessimistic. We know we have at least one fit and it's usually a nine card fit. And down one doubled is fine anyway.

Nor am I worried about them bidding game. I'm not sure what about me bidding now would make them think they were making if they didn't think so a round earlier.

[glen]

lalldonn, on 2012-December-08, 17:16, said:

... We know we have at least one fit and it's usually a nine card fit ...

Three of the most likely shapes are 3-4-3-3, 3-5-3-2, and 3-5-2-3

[gnasher]

I wouldn't. It would be nice if he had three low spades and some minor-suit jacks, but the gappy minor-suits are unattractive, and 3♠ may not make. We might even get a heart ruff against 3S.

[lalldonn]

glen, on 2012-December-08, 17:23, said:

Three of the most likely shapes are 3-4-3-3, 3-5-3-2, and 3-5-2-3

This is kind of like if I said that I go to work most days in a week, and you replied that can't be right because Saturday and Sunday are two of the most commonly occuring days.

[glen]

lalldonn, on 2012-December-09, 09:44, said:

This is kind of like if I said that I go to work most days in a week, and you replied that can't be right because Saturday and Sunday are two of the most commonly occuring days.

Except I didn't say "that can't be right", but instead was helping define your usually, such as you said that you usually go to work, and I said what about the weekend

[lalldonn]

You were just helping to define my usually as less than 100%? Thanks

[glen]

lalldonn, on 2012-December-09, 10:01, said:

You were just helping to define my usually as less than 100%? Thanks

You're welcome. Sometimes it helps to put things in perspective, as whether "usually" is 60%, 80%, or even 100%. This can help calculate the math in how often bidding 4♣ would be LOTT stupid.

[gszes]

I'm not all that happy we passed over 3h where a 4c bid would surely show
an unbalanced offensively oriented hand (avoiding a possible 3n). I am
not going to let the opps steal away with an easy 3s contract when all it takes
is maybe xxxx Qxxx x KJxx to give us an easy 4c and a tad more
xxxx Axxx x Axxx and we may be looking at 5 (though it is probably too late
to get to 5c unless opps push and p "sacs").

[sathyab]

I ran a simulation using

http://bridge.thomasoandrews.com/deal/

(Thanks gnasher for pointing this to me)

The Specs: West has the hand he's dealt. North has 5♠, South 4 or 5. East has 4 or 5♥. North-South have between themselves 19, 20 or 21 HCP, with South having between 5 and 8 HCP. North, East and South all have balanced or semi-balanced hands. I generated 100 hands and started looking at them. I stopped looking after about 20 of them. You didn't need to be a Nate Silver to know that 4♣ was an overwhelming favorite to make or go at most down 1. Even when you catch East with the dreaded 3433 and opponents keep tapping you, you have a play for down 1. And N-S are making 3♠ just about all the time.

At the table, I didn't give this too much thought before passing. N-S made 3♠ by playing my hand for ♥K. (this is deal no. 28 in Reisinger SF 1, hand records on-line). There was only one other table where they were allowed to play 3♠ and it wasn't at the OT (:

Instructive deal.

[JLOGIC]

I would bid 4C the first time in case of the fairly likely scenario that we need to save in 5m. I mean, 1D 1S X 3H p 4S p p ? is not pretty, obviously we would have to pass but I'd feel terrible that I didn't show my clubs.