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Some stats

#1 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 07:29

In April 2012, in The Spectator, it was reported that Simon Cocheme had done some research of international mixed pairs events in which the male partner sat either North or West, and over a population of some 20K hands, either West or North declared about 55% of the hands, East or South declaring about 45%. Given the population size this is quite a significant discrepancy.

It would be interesting to know (obviously for non-mixed pairs events) whether an all male partnership can generally be expected to outbid an all female partnership at the same table (or bid higher than an all female partnership playing the same hand in the same direction at an other table). Or if (regardless of the gender of the opponents) an all male partnership might be expected to overbid more (or underbid less) than an all female partnership with the same cards, on the basis that each testosterone-fuelled male will be trying to wrest the contract from the other and so drive up the auction.

Of course, collecting the data for such an exercise would be a nightmare, as we don't have the luxury of knowing the location by gender of players in anything other than a mixed pairs. It might be interesting to have a facility to enter some basic personal stats into the entry docket (maybe, for example, including age bracket as well as gender), armed with which today's computerised scoring systems would be able to churn out all sorts of similar interesting comparisons.

If there were fields in your BBO profile for this sort of data we would have a huge population to work with, but of course that would rely on honesty in the profile, and anyway privacy is probably a higher priority.
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.

Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. mPosted ImagesPosted ImagetPosted Imager-mPosted ImagendPosted Imageing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.

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#2 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 07:38

Some clubs put the names of the four players on their online hand records so it should be possible to figure it out. Maybe not so interesting for club nights, but as you say, data for tournaments will be trickier.

Age and skill level are possible confounders. And system. Here in Yorkshire, all-men pairs are more likely to play strong NT which will probably make the declare less often.
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#3 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 07:53

It crossed my mind that it would be interesting to know if the 55% of the contracts that were played by men had a success rate above or below that of the 45% of the contracts that were played by women. Hogging the bid is the easy part, anyone can do it.

Really it is my opinion that we pay far too much attention to demographic statistics. I'm old, white, male but I assume partner judges me by my play. Still, if someone wants to run these stats, I don't mind giving them out. I am also straight,. Born in Minnesota. Norwegian genes. Anything else? Go for it. :)
Ken
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#4 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 08:12

View Postkenberg, on 2012-November-19, 07:53, said:

It crossed my mind that it would be interesting to know if the 55% of the contracts that were played by men had a success rate above or below that of the 45% of the contracts that were played by women. Hogging the bid is the easy part, anyone can do it.

Really it is my opinion that we pay far too much attention to demographic statistics. I'm old, white, male but I assume partner judges me by my play. Still, if someone wants to run these stats, I don't mind giving them out. I am also straight,. Born in Minnesota. Norwegian genes. Anything else? Go for it. :)


I checked it:

You will win 52 % of all your NT games, and 75 % of your slams. You let about 5 % of all beatable games through and 8 % of all partials. You are married and you like fishing and drinking beer.

:lol:

Back to the topic: I guess that the handhog factor is bigger then the level of aggresivity. But I do not play mixed, I just hear the stories.
Kind Regards

Roland


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#5 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 08:37

I think it would also be interesting to know if the same 55-45 split is present in any same-gender pairs, especially where a client-pro arrangement is invovled.
(-: Zel :-)
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#6 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 09:35

View PostZelandakh, on 2012-November-19, 08:37, said:

I think it would also be interesting to know if the same 55-45 split is present in any same-gender pairs, especially where a client-pro arrangement is invovled.

I think it occurs in ours. My partner has a demanding job and some sessions down the club he's absolutely knackered, in which case I know that me playing more contracts will get us a better score, so I do.

Also some players who do play with clients have been known to hog contracts there, then carry the behaviour over into other partnerships. I occasionally play with one such, and the headlong rush to get the notrumps in first is fun to watch :)
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#7 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 12:28

I am with Roland, males play the hands because they think they are better declarers than females in front, not because they are males.
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#8 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 12:29

View Post1eyedjack, on 2012-November-19, 07:29, said:

Of course, collecting the data for such an exercise would be a nightmare, as we don't have the luxury of knowing the location by gender of players in anything other than a mixed pairs.


Even then you wouldn't know what position each player was in, except perhaps in Southern Europe where they tell you who sits in what seat.
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#9 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 13:22

All I know for sure about the subject is that Ken and Roland's posts #3 and #4, in combination, should be nominated for something.
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#10 User is offline   FM75 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 15:13

April, huh? :)

¿ʇsɐǝ puɐ ɥʇnos ǝɥʇ ɯoɹɟ ǝɹǝʍ sʇɐʇs ǝɥʇ ʇɐɥʍ ɹǝpuoʍ ı
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#11 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 17:38

View Postaguahombre, on 2012-November-19, 13:22, said:

All I know for sure about the subject is that Ken and Roland's posts #3 and #4, in combination, should be nominated for something.


The analysis was almost spot on, except that I have switched from beer to wine. Probably the effect of living on the East Coast. Gotta get back home.
Ken
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#12 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 17:48

View PostFM75, on 2012-November-19, 15:13, said:

¿ʇsɐǝ puɐ ɥʇnos ǝɥʇ ɯoɹɟ ǝɹǝʍ sʇɐʇs ǝɥʇ ʇɐɥʍ ɹǝpuoʍ ı

I can only replicate '¿', 's', 'u' 'o' and 'p' somehow can't replicate 'I' rest is making me crazy, is this simply a special font?
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#13 User is offline   CarlRitner 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 17:57

I take it from this thread that there are no established data on whether men or woman are better at bidding or the play of the cards in bridge? I know of at least two books:

Why Women Win at Bridge: Daniel Roth
Why Women Lose at Bridge: Joyce Nicholson
Cheers,
Carl
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#14 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2012-November-19, 21:53

Carl: the thread started out indicating that women seem to get less practice being declarer when playing with men. It didn't broach what happens when they do declare.

I believe there are many more factors which screw up the stats. For instance, IMO, the male hand-hog factor is much more prominent than the 55/45 might indicate. The stats are diluted by (again, only in my opinion):

--Women get to declare when they preempt more than men do, because their preempts can be trusted and the men feel more confident in extending.

--Women open NT, rather than upgrading or getting creative, thus ending as declarer.

I have absolutely no emperical evidence to back up those sexist assertions.
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#15 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 05:13

This wasn't a proper trial.
I've done some analysis of club bridge results and North plays much more than 25% of the hands, and way more than 50% of the hands that NS declare. I don't have proof, but here are two hypotheses:

- most events now are scored by bridgemates (including all EBL/WBF events). When entering the declarer, some people don't distinguish between N and S, they just press once for 'N' and leave it. This also has a tendency to make East (rather than West) declarer so the EW bias Simon found may be unconnected or perhaps more evidence about real bias).

- most events (particularly EBL/WBF) ones are not played as multiples of 4 boards (26- board sessions are common). This makes N and E dealer more often. My stats show, unsurprisingly, that dealer is declarer a disproportionate amount of the time.

So overall I don't believe stats saying North declares more mean much; but those saying West does might.
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#16 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 05:17

I have to say that overall I'm not particularly interested in questions about what an 'all male' pair will do or an 'all female' pair. I think relative standard has much more to do with it: in a partnership with one player much stronger than the other, the stronger player will declare much more often and will bid more. This is applies when comparing two pairs.

There's certainly some correlation between gender and standard, at least at high level, but I think that's not what is driving such differences.
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#17 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 07:58

View PostZelandakh, on 2012-November-19, 08:37, said:

I think it would also be interesting to know if the same 55-45 split is present in any same-gender pairs, especially where a client-pro arrangement is invovled.

There are problably many pair, regardless of gender, that have a split much worse than 55-45 but 1eyedjack says that the average bias is 55-45, meaning that for each unbiased pair there would have to be a 60-40 pair. Or some such.

Maybe the more routined player tends to sit north because he/she has to operate the bridgemate. More likely, Frances is spot on. Still, the male hand hog effect could be real.
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#18 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2012-November-20, 09:16

View PostFrancesHinden, on 2012-November-20, 05:13, said:

- most events (particularly EBL/WBF) ones are not played as multiples of 4 boards (26- board sessions are common). This makes N and E dealer more often. My stats show, unsurprisingly, that dealer is declarer a disproportionate amount of the time.

This is a 52/48 bias, so other explanations are necessary for the additional 3 percent.

#19 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2012-December-06, 16:18

By the way, I recently did some analysis of the results from an open European teams event scored using bridgemates, and discovered that North was down as declarer on 31% of the boards. That is massively suggestive that people don't distinguish between N and S with the bridgemate but just press the button as few times as possible.
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#20 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2012-December-06, 16:36

FWIW I always do that (make N or E declarer, rather than specify the actual declarer). If it is one where we have to put in the lead, I always put 2 for the spot.
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