[bluecalm]

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Opponents are star pair who play a lot together on BBO. From what I gather they are very good.
We don't have any agreements here as we are pick-up partnership. What do I do here ? Do you like my bidding so far ?

[kayin801]

Would not have Xed 5♣ since I will be on lead and thanks to partner's thoughtful 4♣ bid he made our lead easy. now I pass and lead ♣A and hope to win 2 tricks.

[Codo]

I belive that 5 ♣ promises first round control- else south surely had asked with a pass whether north has first or second round control.
In a serious competetion I had asked my opponents about this, here I would just bid 6 ♠, we will never get 2 tricks.

I do not like your double of 5 ♣, the downs outweight the possible ups.

[Fluffy]

I would had bid 2 or 3 spades first round, don't see why you would want to try game with 7 losers. Also don't like double of 5♣, don't see the point of it except giving them free space, 5♠.

If partner has singleton heart we will go -800, that is a good save against slam, and a small lose if partners are in game. However if partner has 2 hearts it will be -1100 if slam makes wich gainst little and risks a lot.

Partner's 5♠ bid looks like he has more shape than it seems, ♠Kxxx ♥x ♦xx ♣KQ10xxx could be his hand, and I want to play 6♠ against that.

[Codo]

-1100 against -1430 still win quite some imps.

[PhilKing]

Codo, on 2012-October-17, 03:07, said:

-1100 against -1430 still win quite some imps.

Yes, because we anticipate that everyone will bid this 21 point slam.

[gnasher]

I wouldn't save, unless 3♠ and 5♣ both promised voids (and even then it would depend on my opponents). ♥K is probably a trick, and we will have time to try both black aces.

Fluffy, on 2012-October-17, 02:43, said:

If partner has singleton heart we will go -800, that is a good save against slam, and a small lose if partners are in game.

If team-mates are in game and game is the limit, -800 is a huge loss relative to our current expectation. It converts +13 into -4, for a loss of 17 IMPs.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2012-October-17, 03:37

[Codo]

PhilKing, on 2012-October-17, 03:13, said:

Yes, because we anticipate that everyone will bid this 21 point slam.

If they have a double fit, a chicane in clubs and a singleton in spades, many will.

[Codo]

gnasher, on 2012-October-17, 03:30, said:

I wouldn't save, unless 3♠ and 5♣ both promised voids (and even then it would depend on my opponents). ♥K is probably a trick, and we will have time to try both black aces.

Both black aces? How will you do it? I would bet that the ace of spades is with declarer and that they have some discarding possibilities on their diamonds.

And how is it possible that 5 ♣ does NOT show a void?

[gnasher]

Codo, on 2012-October-17, 03:53, said:

Both black aces? How will you do it? I would bet that the ace of spades is with declarer and that they have some discarding possibilities on their diamonds.

I'll lead ♣A. If that gets ruffed, I'll get in with ♥K and lead a spade. If declarer has a club void, he is likely to have at least three diamonds.

Quote

And how is it possible that 5 ♣ does NOT show a void?

It wouldn't promise a void if I bid it. Why should it? He has to do something with a hand like Ax AQJxxx Axxx x

[PhilKing]

I think saving is nuts. Because if North does have a club void 6♠ will be a bloodbath, and will be pretty awful when he has a singleton club and Axx of spades - South obviously leads a club.

When our club stands up, they are going off, yet we could still be going for 1400 (♠A + 1 ♥ + 2♦s + 2 ruffs when North is 3631 and South 0454) or 1100 when partner has the likely heart void or 800 when North is 2641 and partner is void.

It seems to me they have stretched to a low point count slam which may well be on the trump finesse. And I just don't believe we will be scoring up with a making slam from random teammates all that often even when slam makes, so our pot odds for saving are terrible.

[Codo]

gnasher, on 2012-October-17, 04:06, said:

I'll lead ♣A. If that gets ruffed, I'll get in with ♥K and lead a spade. If declarer has a club void, he is likely to have at least three diamonds.


It wouldn't promise a void if I bid it. Why should it? He has to do something with a hand like Ax AQJxxx Axxx x

But if he can hold your example hand or Axx AQJxx Axxxx,-, why did his partner not ask him? Why did his partner bid 5 ♦ and not pass our double to let him XX with a void/the ace?
The only reason I see is that his partner knows that 5 ♣ shows a first round control. Do you have another explanation?

[PhilKing]

Codo, on 2012-October-17, 04:38, said:

But if he can hold your example hand or Axx AQJxx Axxxx,-, why did his partner not ask him? Why did his partner bid 5 ♦ and not pass our double to let him XX with a void/the ace?
The only reason I see is that his partner knows that 5 ♣ shows a first round control. Do you have another explanation?

Yes. South makes his normal bid - 5♦, because otherwise he does not get the chance when West bids 5♠, as East's double suggested.

[gnasher]

Codo, on 2012-October-17, 04:38, said:

But if he can hold your example hand or Axx AQJxx Axxxx,-, why did his partner not ask him? Why did his partner bid 5 ♦ and not pass our double to let him XX with a void/the ace?
The only reason I see is that his partner knows that 5 ♣ shows a first round control. Do you have another explanation?

It's a bit pointless to speculate about the meaning of this call when in real life we would just have asked them, but an obvious reason to bid 5♦ is that he had something useful in diamonds. That was one of the things he was being asked about, and if he passed that might mean he'd never get a chance to show it.

[Codo]

PhilKing, on 2012-October-17, 04:21, said:

I think saving is nuts. Because if North does have a club void 6♠ will be a bloodbath, and will be pretty awful when he has a singleton club and Axx of spades - South obviously leads a club.

When our club stands up, they are going off, yet we could still be going for 1400 (♠A + 1 ♥ + 2♦s + 2 ruffs when North is 3631) or 1100 when partner has the likely heart void or 800 when North is 2641 and partner is void.

It seems to me they have stretched to a low point count slam which may well be on the trump finesse. And I just don't believe we will be scoring up with a making slam from random teammates all that often even when slam makes, so our pot odds for saving are terrible.

1. If north has a club void, they do not need to lead clubs, his partner does not know whether north holds the ace or a void. ANd if the control is the ace- the lead will hurt their prospetcs. From south POV it is easily possible that north has the ace and I am the one with the void. Why not? And if they lead different suits, they may or may not have the ability to earn 1100 or even more.Why would you lead a club from say x,AQJx,KQxx,xxxx after the bidding started the way it did?
2. How can he hold a singleton club and his partner did not ask him?
3. Yes our K9 of hearts make it sooo likely that partner has a singleton or even void there. Or is it his first round pass and later showing some clubs and some spades?

But okay, it seems too difficult for stars to pass the double of 5 ♣ to ask about a first or second round control. In this case, I better pass too. Oh no wait:
Maybe I should double to protect my score for the making game with the king of Hearts always onside, both black aces and running clubs?

[Codo]

gnasher, on 2012-October-17, 04:44, said:

It's a bit pointless to speculate about the meaning of this call when in real life we would just have asked them. but an obvious reason to bid 5♦ is that he had something useful in diamonds. That was one of the things he was being asked about, and if he passed that might mean he'd never get a chance to show it.

Well, it is as pointless to speculate about the meaning of 5 ♣ as it is about 5 ♦- but we still do it.
Andl the question about the diamonds is much less important as the one about the clubs, isn't it?, Partner showed a control in diamond already and the opps (we) did not mentioned anything particular in that suit.

But we agree that if 5♣ does not show a first round control (here: void), bidding 6 ♠ is a poor gambling. I wonder whether we should double in this case, we do not want partner to defend because of the double fit, do we? After all, we have a 50% chance to beat 6♥ in our own hand...

[PhilKing]

Codo, on 2012-October-17, 04:54, said:

1. If north has a club void, they do not need to lead clubs, his partner does not know whether north holds the ace or a void. ANd if the control is the ace- the lead will hurt their prospetcs. From south POV it is easily possible that north has the ace and I am the one with the void. Why not? And if they lead different suits, they may or may not have the ability to earn 1100 or even more.Why would you lead a club from say x,AQJx,KQxx,xxxx after the bidding started the way it did?

It's highly unlikely that leading a club is not best. It requires north to have void or singleton plus spade ace or singleton ace, which are basically the rational possibilities on this auction. Not leading a club costs a trick on a couple of the possible scenarios.

2. How can he hold a singleton club and his partner did not ask him?

This has been covered and is really quite obvious.

3. Yes our K9 of hearts make it sooo likely that partner has a singleton or even void there. Or is it his first round pass and later showing some clubs and some spades?

I have no idea what you mean - is the "sooo" a clue to solving this puzzle?

But okay, it seems too difficult for stars to pass the double of 5 ♣ to ask about a first or second round control.

Maybe they know something you don't.

In this case, I better pass too. Oh no wait:
Maybe I should double to protect my score for the making game with the king of Hearts always onside, both black aces and running clubs?

I'm guessing this point is similar to number 3.

See above.

I have just looked up the hand. LMAO. FWIW North's bidding was immaculate and South was a bit pushy.

[Fluffy]

gnasher, on 2012-October-17, 03:30, said:

I wouldn't save, unless 3♠ and 5♣ both promised voids (and even then it would depend on my opponents). ♥K is probably a trick, and we will have time to try both black aces.


If team-mates are in game and game is the limit, -800 is a huge loss relative to our current expectation. It converts +13 into -4, for a loss of 17 IMPs.

It is obvious that a phantom sacrifice costs a lot, but partners being on game and game being the top is not the only option. Taking ♥K as undoubtfully onside is also making the things too simple, in reality bidding or not is close. Maybe pass is better just beause partner has still the option to bid on.

[Codo]

I looked at the hand too....

Maybe these guys play another game then I do. But hey, it worked well, never critsize success.

[Fluffy]

Hehe, me too, seems gnasher was right on all his assumptions except one, he forgot to preclude partner from saving with zero defensive tricks