[bluecalm]

First time partnership, no agreements at all although partner is star player on BBO.

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Do I invite here ? If not what is minimum improvement to this hand to make it an invite ? If yes do you consider it clear ?

[billw55]

I choose not to invite. I consider it close. The ♣J would go a long way to convincing me.

[dake50]

How often does partner have 2xA or A+SK on this auction?
Aces or SK, no S+D-quacks?
The thing in my favor is 3C accents only interested in top tricks.
My partner will recognise this and 3H seems secure.

[CSGibson]

What do I need from partner? two aces, or an ace and the king of spades is a minimum. I also need some help in clubs, especially if that isn't partner's hoped-for ace. I think this is too much of a parlay, especially opposite a partner who didn't axe 1N with a heart fit NV vs vul. I think it is more likely that we will go down in 3 because clubs aren't behaving/partners values aren't quick than it is that we make 4, so I am going to pass.

[mikeh]

White it really doesn't matter a lot if we at are mps or imps. I see 3 ways to lose by inviting and only 1 way to gain. That 1 way had better be high percentage, then, to warrant an invite and I don't think it is, at all.

We lose when:

He rejects and we are too high, or

He accepts and we are too high, or

(and this is a subset of the first 2) our help suit try pinpoints the defence...imagine LHO with AJxx in clubs and Axx in hearts....he hears partner accept and has an easy trump lead and continuation.

As opposed to that, we succeed when partner has the magic holding that allows us to make game.

I think the odds favour pass. I think that it might well be different vul at imps.

[the hog]

bluecalm, on 2012-October-05, 10:17, said:

First time partnership, no agreements at all although partner is star player on BBO.

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Do I invite here ? If not what is minimum improvement to this hand to make it an invite ? If yes do you consider it clear ?

If you like going down in 4 then I would certainly invite. I suggest you try to construct a few hands where your partner offers a simple raise and you have a good play for 4.

[mikestar13]

This isn't worth an invite, maybe add a king, preferably an ace. Partner's expectation is a bit lower than in 1♥-(P)-2♥, because (A) he might have swung the axe if he was upper end with 3 trumps, and (B) he might be sub-minimum with 4 trumps, fighting for the part score. In the latter case, he's won the fight, but you could lose it by inviting. What are the chances he has the magic hand for ten tricks, but couldn't find a 3♥ raise? surely less than the chance eight tricks is the limit.

[PhilKing]

There is a straw in the wind that strongly suggests partner is maximum.

Consider the whole hand. We have 11, give the 1NT bidder a near max - say 17. That leaves twelve for the others. Give partner a seven count and it doesn't really stack up, since that would give righty a take-out double of 2♥ (he would have at least five points and at most a doubleton heart and on average just over four spades).

If one is playing with a dullard (which is possible, despite the star ), that makes inviting perilous, since with a max he will count his points and accept. A good partner will know we can only be inviting with 10 cards in our suits and will bid appropriately. With a borderline hand with the diamond king, he can stall with Three Diamonds (and now we would bid on with a singleton spade).

Partner should never accept with no points in clubs. We want partner to guess high with AQx xxx Qxxx Jxx (or even Kxx xxx Qxxx Axx), and he can do some detective work of his own, reasoning that the lack of spade bidding marks us with two cards in the suit. Oh, and don't worry about a trump lead or a ruff - everything is breaking once righty passes over Two Hearts.

[gwnn]

How can RHO have an expectation of more than 4 spades when he just about denied 5??

[Gerben42]

I am going to make a non-invitational 3♥ bid to shut out the opponents.

[PhilKing]

gwnn, on 2012-October-06, 06:03, said:

How can RHO have an expectation of more than 4 spades when he just about denied 5??

That was my point - 4.2 spades (or whatever, it doesn't really matter) was his expectation before he passed. The auction doesn't stack up for partner to minimum given the lack of action by our RHO.

Righty has at most two hearts and kept silent even though we know they have at least half the deck. Partner has 8-9 here for sure. I rather expect him to have 4 or 5 spades, so he will not be able to place us with short diamonds particularly.

[awm]

I'd pass, but I think it's pretty close. Something like ♠xx ♥KQJ9xx ♦x ♣KQJ9 would be worth inviting to me. The problem with the actual hand is the club suit; even if we give partner something really suitable like ♠Kxxx ♥xxx ♦xxx ♣Axx or ♠AQxx ♥xxx ♦xxx ♣Jxx we will probably go down because of the fourth round of clubs. Keep in mind that hearts are much more likely to be 3-1 than 2-2 (since the 1NT bidder with doubleton heart would often make a takeout double).

[aguahombre]

Gerben42, on 2012-October-06, 06:37, said:

I am going to make a non-invitational 3♥ bid to shut out the opponents.

Normally a good philosophy holding a sixth trump. This situation seems different. Lefty has made a one-time bid and is unlikely to reopen, since he has a few hearts. We have already gotton past Righty for the second time, and he is out of it. The opponents are already shut out.

[Fluffy]

If partner doesn't have a hand that makes game the opponents will be cold for theirs. I would bid 3♣, but 2NT might be better to shout opponents better.

[PhilKing]

awm, on 2012-October-06, 09:09, said:

Keep in mind that hearts are much more likely to be 3-1 than 2-2 (since the 1NT bidder with doubleton heart would often make a takeout double).

I think it's quite difficult to costruct a hand where righty passed over 2♥ with a stiff heart. Trumps are almost certainly 2-2. Plenty of people including me, you and random BBO opponents overcall 1NT with a 3244 17 count now and again, but not many pass with 4-6 points and a stiff heart opposite the 1NT overcall over the 2♥ raise.

[gnasher]

Opener's choice of 1NT rather than double isn't necessarily good news. If he's 3244 he probably has poor spades, so most of the spade honours will be in partner's hand and on the right. And it increases the chance that we have a second club loser.

[Trinidad]

PhilKing, on 2012-October-06, 05:05, said:

There is a straw in the wind that strongly suggests partner is maximum.

Consider the whole hand. We have 11, give the 1NT bidder a near max - say 17. That leaves twelve for the others. Give partner a seven count and it doesn't really stack up, since that would give righty a take-out double of 2♥ (he would have at least five points and at most a doubleton heart and on average just over four spades).

That assumes that RHO is playing takeout doubles in this situation. There are a lot of RHO's, certainly on BBO, who don't.

Rik

[bluecalm]

I thought it's very close but I passed thinking that I sometimes go down in 3 and I am not vulnerable.
Partner had: KJ98 876 A542 64 and the game made because of 2-2 hearts.

[aguahombre]

Trinidad, on 2012-October-07, 01:38, said:

That assumes that RHO is playing takeout doubles in this situation. There are a lot of RHO's, certainly on BBO, who don't.

Rik

This is coming from me, who has ranted against "all doubles are takeout". This double would be takeout. There are only 13 hearts in the deck.

[PhilKing]

bluecalm, on 2012-October-07, 13:24, said:

game made because of 2-2 hearts.

Shock.