[Hanoi5]

Teams, white vs red:

♠AT976
♥T9
♦Q8x
♣K97

Pa-(1♥)-Pa-(1N)
Pa-(2♥)-Pa-(Pa)
???

Editted, thx The Hog

[the hog]

This must be incorrect. First I bid 1NT with 5S and now you want me to bid something over 2H, and it is not in the balancing seat. Correct the op.

[ggwhiz]

I'm bidding 2♠ at the speed of light.

Pard has some values and at least 2 spades and if they have only 2 they rate to split 3-3 most often.

Couple that with 3 or rarely 4 hearts and they were boxed out of bidding. Going down in 2♠ isn't the end of the world at these colours for the chance to defend 3♥ instead of 2, defend something else at the 3 level or eke out a plus right here. Too good to pass up 3 ways to win (ok 4 if we go down here and they were making 2♥) against 1 way to lose.

[aguahombre]

One vote for no balance. Just a matter of policy to let this type of auction die, if we couldn't get in earlier and they don't necessarily have a fit.

[the hog]

OK. Now I bid 2S.

[Codo]

I try 2 ♠ too.

[the_clown]

Surely 2♠

[PhilKing]

2♠ all day long.

I assume it worked out badly. OK, it's a non-fit auction, but they are generally making 2♥, and we have a fair chance of turning a minus into a plus one way or another.

It's obviously not gilt-edged - I once had a similar hand at high stakes Chicago where LHO was 5-6 in the majors with 14 points. I went for 1100! FML.

[gszes]

see no good reason letting the opps play 2h is good for us. There are also
far too many cases where a 52 spade fit will play better than a 43 minor fit.
All roads seem to lead us to 2s. With so little defense I find the concept of
x scary but can appreciate the flexibility of the call.

Pass at these colors seems non competitive. Thats why it is called balancing
becasue you make these calls with far less than normal due to the knowledge
p has some power you didnt know about earlier in the bidding.

[Phil]

Spades is generally a safe suit, which is an important concept in balancing. So easy 2♠.

Compare this to an auction like 1m - p - 1♠ - p - 1N - p - p and you are looking at an OK, but not great heart suit.

[aguahombre]

aguahombre, on 2012-October-04, 22:43, said:

One vote for no balance. Just a matter of policy to let this type of auction die, if we couldn't get in earlier and they don't necessarily have a fit.

the hog, on 2012-October-04, 23:11, said:

OK. Now I bid 2S.

I have that effect on people

I fully expected to be in the minority of one, on this.

[ArtK78]

I would bid 2♠, which seems clear. But I am not as comfortable in doing so as many seem to be.

LHO could be 4-6-2-1 and RHO 3-1-4-5. So there is no guarantee that partner has 2 spades. On a bad day, LHO will have something like KQJx Axxxxx Kx x and double 2♠, and you are in big trouble.

The other possibility is that both opps could be maximum for their calls and, given a second chance, could bid a making game. Or they could find a better spot that 2♥.

I still think it is right to bid, but there are some real chances that bidding could be very wrong on a particular hand.

[the hog]

No agh. The original post was flawed. After he fixed it I bid 2S.

[aguahombre]

the hog, on 2012-October-05, 20:05, said:

No agh. The original post was flawed. After he fixed it I bid 2S.

I knew that. Just musing at the sequence of our posts.

[mike777]

ArtK78, on 2012-October-05, 11:04, said:

I would bid 2♠, which seems clear. But I am not as comfortable in doing so as many seem to be.

LHO could be 4-6-2-1 and RHO 3-1-4-5. So there is no guarantee that partner has 2 spades. On a bad day, LHO will have something like KQJx Axxxxx Kx x and double 2♠, and you are in big trouble.

The other possibility is that both opps could be maximum for their calls and, given a second chance, could bid a making game. Or they could find a better spot that 2♥.

I still think it is right to bid, but there are some real chances that bidding could be very wrong on a particular hand.

Great teaching hand OP that I hope posters who bid 2s will explain in more depth.


Ok Art why do you think it is still right to bid as do most other posters?

I am a bit worried given we are fav vul and pard has failed to bid over 1h or prebalance over 2h ala Bergen.

[ArtK78]

mike777, on 2012-October-05, 21:45, said:

Great teaching hand OP that I hope posters who bid 2s will explain in more depth.


Ok Art why do you think it is still right to bid as do most other posters?

I am a bit worried given we are fav vul and pard has failed to bid over 1h or prebalance over 2h ala Bergen.

Because:
1) LHO appears to have a minimum opening bid and RHO has limited his hand, therefore partner rates to have some values.
2) LHO is likely to have no more than 3 spades and RHO should have no more than 3 spades, so, at worst, partner has 2 spades.
3) You don't want the opps to play at the 2 level when it appears that they have a reasonable fit.

All of these things are true, so you rate to improve your score by bidding 2♠. But, as I pointed out above, it is not free of some danger. At matchpoints, all you can lose is the board if you have a disaster by bidding, but you rate to lose the board if you don't bid. At IMPs, you can gain 5 or 6 IMPs by bidding if both sides can make 8 tricks, and you may gain even if that is not true. But every so often you will run into a disaster hand and bidding will cost you a large amount.

[mike777]

thanks for responding

given we are told imps

and given pard has some values but not many values..given pass over 1h and pass over 2h at this vul I am a bit worried about us making something but ok

Reading the posts it seems many think a double partscore swing very possible.
Not sure I buy into the logic presented so far, but this may be a hand based more on poster's expert experience.
--


It would be very helpful to some of us if you just said the risk of passing is higher than the risk of bidding 2s and then define in some stat way or if this is just based on your expert judgement fair enough.

[awm]

Are we really going to get doubled in 2♠ at IMPs on this hand/auction? Neither opponent is likely to have four spades (RHO bid 1NT and not 1♠, LHO might be 6-4 but that's not a likely pattern). Opponents don't have much more than half the deck either (LHO couldn't jump at second turn, RHO passed 2♥). So the chance of going for a number is really small. Usually one side or the other (or both) can make a two-level partial and our hand looks like things are breaking okay, so it seems unlikely that both 2♥ and 2♠ are down. Under these conditions at favorable it seems right to bid.

There are some other nice signs too, like we have few enough hearts (only two) that partner might have been unable to act with a good hand. If we had more hearts that would imply that either we are mirrored (heart length in both hands, which is bad) or partner didn't have enough for a takeout double despite short hearts (also bad).

[rsteele]

Hanoi5, on 2012-October-04, 19:02, said:

Teams, white vs red:

♠AT976
♥T9
♦Q8x
♣K97

Pa-(1♥)-Pa-(1N)
Pa-(2♥)-Pa-(Pa)
???

Editted, thx The Hog

[nigel_k]

mike777, on 2012-October-05, 21:45, said:

Great teaching hand OP that I hope posters who bid 2s will explain in more depth.

Ok Art why do you think it is still right to bid as do most other posters?

I am a bit worried given we are fav vul and pard has failed to bid over 1h or prebalance over 2h ala Bergen.

I find the best way to illustrate these kind of things is with an example:

---

I have given partner a really bad hand with only a doubleton trump and heavily oriented towards defence. Double dummy there are seven tricks for both sides, but it takes very good defence for N/S to prevent declarer reaching dummy to play a diamond. We're a passed hand so he will not misguess. It's also possible they drop a trick and let us make 2♠ on a minor suit squeeze but that is less likely.

This shows what a narrow target you are aiming at by passing, compared to all the good things that can happen if we bid.