[wank]

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in case more people accidentally walk into the expert forum whilst searching for the toilet, I should make it clear that the double is for take-out.

[billw55]

I might select a card at random on the theory that this can hardly be worse than the double I already made.

Against 4♠ undoubled, I lead a small club, albeit with no particular confidence.

By the way nice touch putting trump as the first poll option.

[gszes]

i searched high and low for a trump to lead (looked at clubs 3 times) gave up and asked
myself why i would x when i had no strong idea on what the hey to lead>>>>>

ANYWAY after much fidgeting and asking the director if it was too late to claim i had
accidentally dropped the x card I pulled out the dia J hoping against hope dummy didnt hit with
precisely a singleton dia.

[JLOGIC]

club what else?

[Thiros]

I forced our side to the five level with this heaping pile, and now I am faced with this?

Rather than succumb to the trick-one endplay, I steal a spade from the next table over, and put it out there, hoping I get caught and thrown out of the game so that I don't have to humiliate myself further.

[cloa513]

wank, on 2012-October-03, 12:26, said:

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in case more people accidentally walk into the expert forum whilst searching for the toilet, I should make it clear that the double is for take-out.

Either a 10 of diamonds (misleading leads are better) or a low diamond- only needs partner to have the 9 or higher for it to be good. Its impossible for you to tell it might be a great double- partner might have one sure spade trick with 5 spades.

[PhilKing]

♦J looks best by a distance. As long as dummy does not have a singleton, this should keep us in the hunt.

[kayin801]

Process of elimination leaves a systemic low club? I don't think a heart is that bad since partner could still have the Q or we could just be setting up a slow trick in the suit when partner has the J but obviously partner's failure to X 4♥ leaves less appeal there. I would rather claim +1 for them than lead a diamond.

[mikeh]

I think it close between a low heart and a low club. I choose the latter because (1) our longest suit is the one least likely to score a defensive trick when we go passive (2) when it would have scored such a trick, there is a chance partner has shortness and will eventually put us in with a diamond to score a ruff and (3) the heart lead strikes me as too aggressive (probably a subconscious recognition of 1 and 2).

I've used this philosophy for so many years that at the table I'd probably lead the club with no real pause for thought.

Edit: the diamond J/10 looks suicidal to me. I mean, it isn't at all impossible that we catch dummy with a stiff, combining blowing a trick with helping declarer develop an elopement. If I were forced at gunpoint to lead diamonds, I'd lead the Ace.

After all, while partner has 4-5 trump, dummy has 6 (usually: we hope trump aren't 0=7=4=2) snd the diamond middle honour requires some very specific layouts. Save the newspaper plays for the bar, not the table.

[PhilKing]

mikeh, on 2012-October-06, 11:57, said:

Save the newspaper plays for the bar, not the table.

This IS the bar - I am currently drinking a glass of Cahors.

Anyway, I did a slightly inaccurate sim which eventually produced 23 hands that matched the facts. The contract was beatable 9 times. The diamond jack beat it 8 times, club 7, heart 5 and diamond ace 6.

I have them in PBN file.

Obviously the double worked horribly overall.

[Poky]

Input:
- RHO: 20-21 balanced
- LHO: 6+♠, <8 HCP (no redouble)
- partner: 4+♠

Output:
- Game made on H6 lead: 53.20% (532 of 1000)
- Game made on DJ lead: 51.20% (512 of 1000)
- Game made on DA lead: 57.20% (572 of 1000)
- Game made on C2 lead: 54.50% (545 of 1000)

♦J best as expected, but interesting to notice heart lead is better than club lead.

[PhilKing]

Poky, on 2012-October-06, 19:09, said:

Input:
- RHO: 20-21 balanced
- LHO: 6+♠, <8 HCP (no redouble)
- partner: 4+♠

Output:
- Game made on H6 lead: 53.20% (532 of 1000)
- Game made on DJ lead: 51.20% (512 of 1000)
- Game made on DA lead: 57.20% (572 of 1000)
- Game made on C2 lead: 54.50% (545 of 1000)

♦J best as expected, but interesting to notice heart lead is better than club lead.

TY. Glad my mini sim was not too bad. I was surprised a heart was worse than a club on my (human) sample. But I have my doubts on your methodology. Partner sometimes passes on a 3334 or similar bust and sometimes pulls with 4 weak spades and a five card suit, but you need human input to decide that.

One of the occasions a club was the winner on my sample required no help - dummy held cAT8 and declarer cQ9, yet a club was still the only winning lead. Who can work out the hand how that is possible, I wonder?

[Poky]

PhilKing, on 2012-October-06, 19:43, said:

Partner sometimes passes on a 3334 or similar bust and sometimes pulls with 4 weak spades and a five card suit, but you need human input to decide that.

With 3(433) partner passes pretty much always, I would say, since his range is 0-4. No point in running into -800/-1100.

Regarding the 4-5 hands, do you really think running out with, say, Txxx-Qxxxx-x-xxx is better than passing!? However, this cases are rare and do not change much the relations of percentages, maybe just a little bit the makeability of 4♠x.

[PhilKing]

Poky, on 2012-October-07, 05:53, said:

With 3(433) partner passes pretty much always, I would say, since his range is 0-4. No point in running into -800/-1100.

Regarding the 4-5 hands, do you really think running out with, say, Txxx-Qxxxx-x-xxx is better than passing!? However, this cases are rare and do not change much the relations of percentages, maybe just a little bit the makeability of 4♠x.

On the hands I looked at, running was invariably correct, but that's partly because the doubler was a high card short I guess!