[Raff90]

You play 3NT and lead is 3 of clubs:

a98x
xx
adxx
982

kx
ad9xx
kbxx
ax

[mikeh]

Raff90, on 2012-September-25, 13:26, said:

You play 3NT and lead is 3 of clubs:

a98x
xx
adxx
982

kx
ad9xx
kbxx
ax

It would be helpful if you used standard methods for identifying cards, or did a bidding diagram. I assume a 'd' is a queen and a 'b' is a jack, so

you are in 3N and the lead is the club 3:plan the play

---

[Raff90]

yes sry thx for doing it

[PhilKing]

Can't answer without an auction, since it may increase the chances that the lead is from a 3-card suit.

[Raff90]

opponents didnt bid...

[PhilKing]

Raff90, on 2012-September-25, 13:58, said:

opponents didnt bid...

I could be wrong, but I suspect our side did. Would you mind terribly telling us what the bids were?

[mikeh]

mikeh, on 2012-September-25, 13:50, said:

It would be helpful if you used standard methods for identifying cards, or did a bidding diagram. I assume a 'd' is a queen and a 'b' is a jack, so

you are in 3N and the lead is the club 3:plan the play

---

A straightforward line seems to be to win the club early, cash two diamonds, ending in dummy, and lead a heart to the 9. This wins immediately if RHO holds J10 and doesn't split, and may win later after our Q loses to the K and they cash club winners...we'll plan on playing a heart to our 9 later. It also allows us to prevail anytime the heart K is onside.

We are assuming that clubs are 4-4, and we don't know the auction so it isn't entirely clear how reliable that is.

I can't see how trying to cater to a major suit squeeze makes sense. Nor do I see any benefit from cashing the heart A early and then leading towards the Q.

If I am correct, this hand doesn't belong in the expert forum....the notion of combining chances in the heart suit belongs in the Intermediate forum at most. Please don't take that as a reason to stop posting....the more play hands we see, the better, but even better if they are correctly categorized.

Now, if I've missed some esoteric line with significantly better chances than my line, please keep posting in this forum, and I'll confine my answers to the others

[billw55]

Interesting mikeh, pretty much my thoughts, except I was thinking we *can* also cater to a major suit squeeze.

Of course any problem in expert forum should have an auction. Even if opponents did not bid, our own bidding might influence their lead. For example if the auction is 1NT - 3NT, we can probably infer that west has no four card major. Whereas, this does not apply if it started 1♥ - 1♠.

[mikeh]

billw55, on 2012-September-25, 14:15, said:

Interesting mikeh, pretty much my thoughts, except I was thinking we *can* also cater to a major suit squeeze.

Of course any problem in expert forum should have an auction. Even if opponents did not bid, our own bidding might influence their lead. For example if the auction is 1NT - 3NT, we can probably infer that west has no four card major. Whereas, this does not apply if it started 1♥ - 1♠.

I don't see how you cater to a squeeze while playing a heart to the 9. The opps will always be able to do something unpleasant to you (such as arranging for RHO to be able to play a heart through you before the squeeze materializes)...not to mention what do you pitch on the clubs?

Bear in mind that the possible layouts are constrained by the assumption that clubs are 4-4...and we'll constrain them even more when we cash a couple of diamonds.

[gszes]

mikeh, on 2012-September-25, 13:50, said:

It would be helpful if you used standard methods for identifying cards, or did a bidding diagram. I assume a 'd' is a queen and a 'b' is a jack, so

you are in 3N and the lead is the club 3:plan the play

---

I will duck the first club and win the second followed by 3 rounds of dia (or 4 if they split 41) ending in dummy and lead the 3rd club pitching a low heart.
The main reason I am doing this is to see if I can get the opps to cash our their club winners and let me know if it is safe to attack hearts to the 9 or to go for
the finesse. There is also the chance if lho wins the club and cashes the last club(s) they will return a heart vs a spade and give us our trick w/o a guess.

The main advantage of playing this way is if the opps cash 3 more clubs we know that only a very unlikley major suit squeeze or the heart finesse are our only
chance for 9 tricks. If rho takes the 3rd club and leads a low heart w/o cashing the last club we are at a complete guess (I have to admit that if defended that way
I would play the heart Q).

[PhilKing]

gszes, on 2012-September-25, 15:14, said:

I will duck the first club and win the second followed by 3 rounds of dia (or 4 if they split 41) ending in dummy and lead the 3rd club pitching a low heart.

If rho takes the 3rd club and leads a low heart w/o cashing the last club we are at a complete guess (I have to admit that if defended that way
I would play the heart Q).

Plan looks good up until not putting the ♥9 in. The only player who can have five clubs is East. If he wins and does not cash, the heart nine is safe.

[MrAce]

PhilKing, on 2012-September-25, 14:02, said:

I could be wrong, but I suspect our side did. Would you mind terribly telling us what the bids were?

[billw55]

mikeh, on 2012-September-25, 14:26, said:

I don't see how you cater to a squeeze while playing a heart to the 9. The opps will always be able to do something unpleasant to you (such as arranging for RHO to be able to play a heart through you before the squeeze materializes)...not to mention what do you pitch on the clubs?

It is true, if I play a heart to the nine, ops can arrange for east to take the last club and play a heart through. In this case I cannot try a squeeze and also hold the finesse in reserve. However, my ops will not do that 100% of the time. Of course your ops are better than mine, maybe yours will.

Beyond that, I see I miscalculated the "squeeze" situation. My plan was to toss two hearts from hand and a diamond from dummy, then cash down to this position:

♠A983
♥6

♠K4
♥AQ
♦K

.. and cash the ♦K. I see now that this takes quite a miracle lie to have any effect. But at least it loses nothing.

[lowerline]

mikeh, on 2012-September-25, 13:50, said:

It would be helpful if you used standard methods for identifying cards, or did a bidding diagram. I assume a 'd' is a queen and a 'b' is a jack, so

you are in 3N and the lead is the club 3:plan the play

---

♣A and finesse the ♥Q. If this looses and clubs are 4-4, you can still win on a squeeze if East has ♥JT and West has two spade honors doubleton or no spade honors at all.


Steven

[PhilKing]

lowerline, on 2012-October-01, 07:30, said:

♣A and finesse the ♥Q. If this looses and clubs are 4-4, you can still win on a squeeze if East has ♥JT and West has two spade honors doubleton or no spade honors at all.


Steven

If East has ♠QJTx ♥JTx ♦xx ♣Qjxx he plays a heart after winning the second club. No squeeze.

[lowerline]

PhilKing, on 2012-October-01, 07:42, said:

If East has ♠QJTx ♥JTx ♦xx ♣Qjxx he plays a heart after winning the second club. No squeeze.

True. But my opponents would cash their club winners first... Anyway, heart to the Q is the only thing you can do.

Steven

[PhilKing]

lowerline, on 2012-October-01, 08:25, said:

True. But my opponents would cash their club winners first... Anyway, heart to the Q is the only thing you can do.

Steven

Win second club, cross to a diamond and exit with a club as suggested by gszes.

If they cash clubs, you get to see if the suit is 35 or 44. If they don't cash clubs, and righty is the only one who can realistically have five on the lead, a heart to the nine is now a "safe" extra chance.

[SteveMoe]

I'm winning the first trick and ducking a ♥ from hand. I see the odds here to be slim. 18% - ♥Kxx on-side. I expect ♣s to be 4-4.

[billw55]

SteveMoe, on 2012-October-01, 20:37, said:

I'm winning the first trick and ducking a ♥ from hand. I see the odds here to be slim. 18% - ♥Kxx on-side. I expect ♣s to be 4-4.

18%? The heart hook by itself is 50% for the 9th trick.

[PhilKing]

billw55, on 2012-October-02, 05:41, said:

18%? The heart hook by itself is 50% for the 9th trick.

And no one has ever led from three to an honour in the fourth suit before.