[bluecalm]

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Matchpoints.
1NT was ~11-14 doesn't promise ♥ stopper.

Is it close ? I did something which wasn't successful and partner didn't like it. Opponents are probably weak but I didn't know them (about 30-40 year old guys).

[billw55]

Red on white I will pass. I thought about 4♦ for a little while, does that mean it is close?

[CSGibson]

I would probably have laid down 3♦ the previous round, and leave all further competition to partner.

Now I pass - partner can compete with a fit himself.

[Fluffy]

agree with the above, with singleton heart 3♦ is pretty safe at MPs the round before.

[nigel_k]

Pass could be right but I would double, then bid 4♦ unless partner passes the double. If double is penalty I would just bid 4♦.

I would have preferred to bid 3♦ the first time. This isn't particularly sound but you can't afford to be shut out at matchpoints with this much shape, and it probably won't be any safer on the second round.

[Yu18772]

My strong preference would be 3♦ first round, I think that bidding again now would overstate my hand.
Yu

[jogs]

Both pass and double would likely end the auction.

PASS.

No percentage in doubling. Down 1. Little difference in mps between +100 and +50. 3HX+3. Huge difference between -140 and -530.

[rhm]

I tried a simulation (1000 deals) with the following specification:

North: 0-4 HCP
East: 11-14 balanced
South: 6-7 hearts, at most 4 cards in a black suit. If only 6 hearts, either the hearts are at least KQJxxx or South has a void in diamonds.
South has generally the best hand and on some the 2♥ rebid looks like an underbid.

Under those conditions:

The average number of tricks West can expect in a diamond contract is 9.7 and 4♦ makes on 62.2% of all deals.
4♦ will be down 2 in 6.4% of all deals. There were no hands where 4♦ was down more
South can expect 9.2 tricks in a heart contract and 3♥ would make on 75.0% of all deals.

When 4♦ is down I would expect to get doubled or that 4♥ would be bid and made in about half the deals. That is less than 20% of the deals.
In 56%, when 3♥ makes 4♦ makes too. Overall it seems even red versus white at matchpoints 4♦ is a winning bid with this hand.
Pass is certainly not clear-cut.

Rainer Herrmann

[aguahombre]

Agree with those who would have directly overcalled 3♦/1♥. Then, East would be able to look at his hand, discover how many diamonds it contained, and decide what to do. He might also notice whether he has negative features in the form of heart cards to adjust is evaluation by.

[lalldonn]

rhm, on 2012-September-30, 04:23, said:

I tried a simulation (1000 deals) with the following specification:

North: 0-4 HCP
East: 11-14 balanced
South: 6-7 hearts, at most 4 cards in a black suit. If only 6 hearts, either the hearts are at least KQJxxx or South has a void in diamonds.
South has generally the best hand and on some the 2♥ rebid looks like an underbid.

I think that will includes lots of north hands where he would have bid 3♥ over 3♦ (such as three hearts and an honor somewhere), and lots of East hands that would have doubled rather than bid 1NT (takeout shape with xx or maybe Ax or Jx of hearts). I also think partner's range should have a top end of 15 or even 16 although I don't know how that would influence the relative results.

Personally I pass although I'm not confident of what's right. But at MPs I can't expect a terrible board for defending a heart partscore, especially after pushing them to 3, whereas I could easily get a terrible board by bidding 4♦.

Also I don't have a huge problem with the pass over 1♥ at this vul.

[gnasher]

Rainer's simulation also includes hands where partner will bid 4♦ if we pass.

[rmnka447]

Pass leaving further competition to partner.

Backing in at 3 ♦ must show ♦ length and ♥ shortness.

Pard also knows I didn't bid 2 ♦ or 3 ♦ direct, so has some idea of what my hand may be.

4 ♦ is a shot. And if some in the field decide to bid 3 ♦ direct, opener may still bid 3 ♥.

[rhm]

gnasher, on 2012-September-30, 05:27, said:

Rainer's simulation also includes hands where partner will bid 4♦ if we pass.

I thought about this.
But if we will not bid 4♦ with a seven card suit and a singleton ace of heart, why should partner continue with a balanced hands and some diamonds red versus white?
It is not that the delayed 3♦ bid promised such a hand.
We know about at least a 7-2 fit and the bidding makes it likely that we will not find much heart duplication.
It is harder for partner to bid on.

Rainer Herrmann

[jogs]

gnasher, on 2012-September-30, 05:27, said:

Rainer's simulation also includes hands where partner will bid 4♦ if we pass.

We absolutely don't know. Minor changes in the assumptions can lead to major changes in the conclusions.

[aguahombre]

rmnka447, on 2012-September-30, 05:55, said:

4 ♦ is a shot. And if some in the field decide to bid 3 ♦ direct, opener may still bid 3 ♥.

Agree. He might still bid 3♥. But, then partner will have decided to let opener do whatever he wants. We don't have to worry any more about taking shots. A sim is useful when we must decide something unilaterally; either because through no fault of our own we are in that position, or because we failed to bring partner into the process earlier.

[PhilKing]

If one bids on, I think the call is 3NT.

For me this is still natural, even though I did not bid it on the previous round and it pretty much shows this hand. Partner only leaves it in when suitable, and bids a confident 4♦ when he has seaweed.

I think South generally has 7 hearts here, and partner will often have Qxx and enough bits and pieces to bring 3NT home. I did a one-hand mental simulation and it produced the following:

♠Axx ♥Qxx ♦Kxx ♣Kxxx

Opposite that, you might well sneak home 3NT, go down in Four Diamonds and conceded 140 against Three Hearts.

[bluecalm]

Imo partner will almost never bid 4d himself. We usually have 6diamonds and weakish hand here and it's hard to imagine him having anything suitable to go to 4 levelewith.

[cherdano]

I usually have a stopper in their 5-card suit when I overcall 1NT.

[aguahombre]

cherdano, on 2012-September-30, 18:25, said:

I usually have a stopper in their 5-card suit when I overcall 1NT.

Most of the time we have a stopper when we balance 1NT, also.