[jmcw]

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Play the ♠ suit (trumps) for 1 loser. East pre-empts in ♣...likely a 7 bagger.

[dwar0123]

When ever west holds kjx or more, nothing works. So best bet is to play east for an honor. We need to start low to the queen to catch any stiff honor by east. Second round of spades should be playing the 10 from dummy, finessing east for the jack(unless it dropped first round).

This is losing line when west has stiff king or kj tight, should be good otherwise.

[semeai]

Low to Q, then lead 10.

This picks up: Hxxx-H (2), Hxx-Hx (6), xxx-KJ (1), Hx-Hxx (6), xx-KJx (3), J-Kxxx (1). The only holdings this is missing that you can pick up are KJ-xxx and K-Jxxx, but you'd have to give up more to pick up either of these.

In case you're interested, though it doesn't matter because the above line is so good: Vacant spaces are 10 to 6 9 to 6 [thanks Cyberyeti]. This makes the ratio of the probability of a single specific holding of the shapes 4-1, 3-2, 2-3, 1-4 equal to 7/5 : 1 : 1/2 : 1/6 [sorry, wrong vacant spaces as pointed out by Cyberyeti] 6/5 : 1 : 4/7 : 12/56.

Added: I see dwar is there before me.

[jmcw]

dwar0123, on 2012-September-10, 13:35, said:

When ever west holds kjx or more, nothing works. So best bet is to play east for an honor. We need to start low to the queen to catch any stiff honor by east. Second round of spades should be playing the 10 from dummy, finessing east for the jack(unless it dropped first round).

This is losing line when west has stiff king or kj tight, should be good otherwise.

Sorry got the ♠ suit wrong, It's ok now

[jmcw]

semeai, on 2012-September-10, 13:40, said:

Low to Q, then lead 10.

This picks up: Hxxx-H (2), Hxx-Hx (6), xxx-KJ (1), Hx-Hxx (6), xx-KJx (3), J-Kxxx (1). The only holdings this is missing that you can pick up are KJ-xxx and K-Jxxx, but you'd have to give up more to pick up either of these.

In case you're interested, though it doesn't matter because the above line is so good: Vacant spaces are 10 to 6. This makes the ratio of the probability of a single specific holding of the shapes 4-1, 3-2, 2-3, 1-4 be 7/5 : 1 : 1/2 : 1/6.

Added: I see dwar is there before me.

Sorry got the ♠ wrong. Fixed now

[dwar0123]

jmcw, on 2012-September-10, 13:07, said:

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Play the ♠ suit (trumps) for 1 loser. East pre-empts in ♣...likely a 7 bagger.

I see nothing but playing east for the kx, kxx or JT all of which are picked up by playing small to the queen.

[semeai]

Okay, with the fixed spade suit of 9854 opposite AQ32 (was T954 opposite AQ32), now I can't pick up any 1-4 or 4-1.

Possible starts are cash A, low to Q, run 9. Cashing A is bad [Added: Oops, no it isn't. See PhilKing's post below]. Let's compare the others:

Possible holdings to pick up:

JTx-Kx (2, counts [almost] double)

Kxx-JT (1, counts [almost] double)

Hxx-KH (2, counts [almost] double)

These are picked up by low to Q or run 9 [cover if covered].

[the 3-2 count for twice 1.75 times 2-3; see earlier post]

JT-Kxx (1)

Picked up by low to Q. Run 9 has to then lead low to Q (when RHO shows x) to pick this up.

KH-Hxx (2)

Low to Q fails. Run 9 has to then play Ace (even if RHO pops with H).

Hx-KHx (4)

Low to Q works. Run 9 has to then play low to Q when RHO shows H.

Kx-JTx (2)

Both fail.

xx-KJT (1)

Both work.

So low to the Queen and low to 9 then lead low to Q are the same. Low to 9 can't pick up both Hx-KHx and KHx-Hxx if your opponent knows to pop H with the latter on the 2nd round. If your opponent doesn't know to do this, then low to 9 and then low, playing A if x shows and Q if J/T show is better than original low to Q (but if you try this and opp does know, you're worse off because you then lose KH-Hxx and JT-Kxx).

[Added: Oops. Actually, as PhilKing points out, cash A then run 9, covering if they cover, only loses to Kx-JTx and JT-Kxx, so it's best, and just as good as the "if your opponent doesn't know" line above even when the opp doesn't know.]

[kenrexford]

If you are expecting to lose one spade no matterwhat, and if you are naturally going to play for the hook of the spade King if nothing else interesting develops, AND if the defense so far makes a quick ruff extremely unlikely, then you might try the ploy of leading small from hand toward the 9-8 first and THEN finessing later.

First of all, LHO might for some reason panic and pop the spade King from K-x, which creates a magic trick for you.

If LHO ducks "smoothly," you might still get a read and somehow guess to drop Kx later, I suppose.

[semeai]

kenrexford, on 2012-September-10, 14:27, said:

If you are expecting to lose one spade no matterwhat, and if you are naturally going to play for the hook of the spade King if nothing else interesting develops, AND if the defense so far makes a quick ruff extremely unlikely, then you might try the ploy of leading small from hand toward the 9-8 first and THEN finessing later.

First of all, LHO might for some reason panic and pop the spade King from K-x, which creates a magic trick for you.

If LHO ducks "smoothly," you might still get a read and somehow guess to drop Kx later, I suppose.

Sometimes nice. Here, though, even if you always get Kx-JTx, you'll lose Kxx-JT, which is just almost as likely (since 3-2 is twice 1.75 times as likely as 2-3 given the distribution). Maybe it will help you tell the difference between KH-Hxx and Hx-KHx the next round, though (by the speed with which LHO plays that J/T)?

[PhilKing]

I am assuming they led a club.

Cashing ace first to see if the J or T appears on the left looks best. If so, we just lead a low spade from hand (crossing to table is dangerous if East is 37 in the blacks).

On balance this gains on one more combination than the finesse line (it wins with KJ or KT on left, and loses to JT).

Running the 9 in case East does not cover with JT6 is not so bad either. It also leads to some interesting situations on the second round. Say it goes nine, small, small jack. You win the exit in dummy and lead a low spade - does East play the T from T7 now?

Clearly, we should be in 6 Spades by North, which would make the play of a low spade away from the AQ less terrible (it's an almighty egg-on-face-extravaganza when East has JT doubleton, but it's much worse than that, since we have to cross in a red suit, potentially setting up a ruff in order to butcher trumps).

[semeai]

Ah, you're right, I was hasty rejecting cashing A. Cash A then run 9, covering if they cover, is (theoretically) best. It loses only to JT-Kxx and Kx-JTx.

(This is for the suit in isolation.)

[PhilKing]

semeai, on 2012-September-10, 15:52, said:

Ah, you're right, I was hasty rejecting cashing A. Cash A then run 9, covering if they cover, is (theoretically) best. It loses only to JT-Kxx and Kx-JTx.

We can't afford to cross, I think.

[semeai]

PhilKing, on 2012-September-10, 15:55, said:

We can't afford to cross, I think.

Yes, sorry. I added my note that I meant for the suit in isolation right about when you made this reply.

As for what's best if we don't want to cross back to dummy: What if when we play A, LHO drops J/T from Jx or Tx? That loses us quite a lot of positions if we then won't cross.

If LHO will do that more than 1/4 the time (or even very slightly less, because you're suggesting cashing A then crossing back if you don't see an honor), then we should just play low to the Queen from the get go, which never requires crossing.

[Cyberyeti]

Adjust the odds by the presumed 7-4 break in the club suit: (note it's 9:6 vacant spaces not 10:6 as used earlier)

West trumps

5 4.2%
4 25.17
3 41.96
2 23.98
1 4.5
0 0.2

We can ignore the 4-1 and 5-0 breaks as none of them make unless the club preempt was off 10 of them where you can cope with a stiff K onside if the other hand is 4441.

So let's look at W's holdings:

KJx/KTx/KJT nothing works 5 holdings
Kxx (1)
Jxx/10xx (2)
J10x (2)
KJ/K10 (2)
Kx (2)
Jx/10x (4)
xx (1)
J10 (1)

Cashing the ace then playing 9 to the Q if J or 10 fail to drop from W (in which case you hook the 9 if a small one is played to the second trick) fails on:

Kx and J10 ie 3 of the less probable 2-3 breaks so I really don't see you can better this in isolation. Playing small to the Q first loses to Kx/KJ/K10 ie 4 cases. The problem as Phil points out is that cashing the A and crossing in a red suit is dangerous and it's dangerous enough that I think this is sufficient to turn the odds round..

[PhilKing]

I guess it's massively wrong not to finesse immediately if West can falsecard. But it's a huge play to find from Jx, but maybe easier from Tx.

My line is terrible against world-class defenders.