[the hog]

This is the first of a number of hand I will post which came up in a major event in which I am just playing.

The scene:
End of day 1. You are leading the event and are playing the National Open Team. All vul. Relatively early board, so you don't need any big swings. (Yet).

You hold
KT9
KJxx
AKQxx
A

You relay the hand out uninterrupted and discover pd holds - hence the looking glass. As an aside - isn't it annoying when you relay out your own shape!!

Axx
Axxx
xxxxx
x

and nothing else

By this stage the bidding is at 4C. Your options are to bid 4H or 6H - you play it. To bid 5D or 6D - he plays it. You can't find out whether he has the J of S or the T of H until you hit the 6 level. Your decision is?

[hrothgar]

This is NOT an easy choice.
I am terribly torn.

On the one hand, I strongly want to declare the hand.
The opponents have just as much information about partner's hand as I do. If partner declares, the opponents are defending double dummy.
Furthermore, I very much prefer that the opponents make their opening lead into my hand. A Heart or a Spade Opening lead into my hand could very well give us the contact. And, of course, Hearts are worth more than Diamonds.

At the same time, there is a lot ot be said for declaring the contract in Diamonds rather than Hearts. There is less chance of a ruff on the opening lead. If Hearts misbehave, I have a few additional options if I am declaring in a Diamond contract. Declaring in Hearts, I have less options in excluding Diamonds before drawing trump.

I'm not sure what I would decide at the table, however, sitting here this Saturday morning I am going to chose to bid a conservative 4H.

These are wonderful hands.
The failure of the opponents to find their 11 card club fit suggests that suits are going to be splitting well for me. [Most people would be able to find some action with a two suited hand pattern]

Measured against this, mirror distributions always make me very nervous.

If I were to play this in slam, I would do so in Diamonds. The inability to exclude Diamonds in a Heart contract is too daunting to me.

[the hog]

These are wonderful hands.

I wish I could say that Richard, this gave me a gut ache! As Laird would say, "I needed a wee dram"

[Codo]

KT9
KJxx
AKQxx
A

Axx
Axxx
xxxxx
x

Okay, I have a spade looser nearly sure...
Maybe I can make an endplay in hearts to avoid it, but against good opps I won`t.
So everything depends on the hearts and my abbility to play them for one looser.#

As this is Team, I don`t care about playing Diamonds and not Hearts.
I agree with Richard about the doubl dummy defence, but I doubt that this is such a big advantages in this particular hand.

I always play with better pards (maybe I won`t find worse?), so better let them declare.

So the only choice for me is 5 or 6 Diamond.
T of H or J of spade gives me a good chance.
Even if both cards are missing, there may be an endgame or the queen of H onside and hearts 3-2.

So I bid 6 Diamond.

Kind Regards

Roland

[inquiry]

5Diamonds..

[the hog]

Why?

[inquiry]

Quote

Why?

Lol... Everyone says my messages are too long. So i give a short answer, and now you want to me give a longer answer. Ok... here goes.

4H is a nice contract, in fact, it is nearly 100%. When I looked at the hand, I imagine 5-0 heart splits where you lose 3H and 1S. In 5Diamond, of course, you can eliminate trumps, and spades, and hold yourself to 1H, 1S loser at most. So at imps, I give up on +620 or +650 and go for the safe +600. Now, perhaps the odds of losing a three heart tricks is too low to give up on the chance for the extra +20 or +50 for playing in hearts, but early in the match, I will just take the sure plus.

Imagine hand behind HKJxx holding

S-xx
H-QT98x
D-x
C-KJxxx

Now on a good day, you can make 6Diamonds.. all you need is 3-2 heart split with queen on sides. I rate that to be at roughly 34%. Brrrr.... not early in the match needing a swing.

Ben

[Cave_Draco]

Look into the Dragon's eyes and... see yourself, ;D.

1D-3D-5D-6D, np.

[the hog]

4H is a nice contract, in fact, it is nearly 100%. When I looked at the hand, I imagine 5-0 heart splits where you lose 3H and 1S. In 5Diamond, of course, you can eliminate trumps, and spades, and hold yourself to 1H, 1S loser at most. So at imps, I give up on +620 or +650 and go for the safe +600. Now, perhaps the odds of losing a three heart tricks is too low to give up on the chance for the extra +20 or +50 for playing in hearts, but early in the match, I will just take the sure plus.

I blew this. Mirrors play badly, but I knew the opps would bid it. I was stupidly swayed by T9 of S, totally having a blind spot that these cards are golden regardless of who plays the hand, so I bid 6H; doubled of course for the D lead.
If I correct to 6NT I have to guess the H position and I would get it wrong, playing for the hand that has a D void to have H length. Pd did have the T of H. Luckily the opps had a stuff up and bid 7D.
I think you have to bid 6D on this , Ben, It has huge elimination chances. Mind you if the HQ does not come down, (it does), you are going off as QJxx of S is in one hand hence no split hons

[inquiry]

"I think you have to bid 6D on this , Ben, It has huge elimination chances. Mind you if the HQ does not come down, (it does), you are going off as QJxx of S is in one hand hence no split honors"

Well, the math of this hand is fairly simple. You will lose a Spade, and as given, you will lose a heart 66% of the time. So the scoring would be....
Imps for pass
34% +1370 +620 =750 -13 (*.34) =-4.42
66% -100 +600 +700 +12(*.66)= 7.92

So that given the hand you suggested, the bidding versus passing is heavy weighed in favor of passing almost 2-to-1. Heck, if the slam was 50-50, then bidding slam would only be 1/12 th better than passing. And even if your partner has the spade JACK, you have a 50-50 to make because you have to find the Spade Queen, and then eliminate black cards and duck a heart (the heart ten is an illusion, it would not be needed which is why 6D is better still than 6H). So the slam if 50-50 IF partner has the spade jack, without the spade jack, it is slighlty less than 50-50 even if he has the heart ten.

Ben

[luis]

a) Do I bid a slam?

Yes.

Why? Because this hand seems to be likely played in a slam at other tables I don't want to play game just because I know a slam is not 100% cold.


Which one?

I bid 6d, I like the chances of the play in 6d. There're many endplay chances or just a simple guess.
I don't like 6h where you have to guess hearts early.

Luis

[Codo]

Hi Ben,

maybe I missed something, but did I know, that pd does not have the Queen of spades?
If he has it, 6 Diamond is a must.

As you pointed out, with the jack of Spade, a slam is okay. I don`t believe, that it is just 50 %.

You eliminate clubs, opps trumps and play two top hearts. If they are 3-2 you play your last heart and claim. Whenever the queen was singelton, you claim...seems to be around 70 %.

If I am right about that, Slam is nearly safe with the Q of Spades, about 70 %with the jack and not hopeless with all these cards missing....

Kind Regards

Roland

[inquiry]

Quote

Roland's quotes are in lime.....

maybe I missed something, but did I know, that pd does not have the Queen of spades? If he has it, 6 diamond is a must.

True, but the conditions were that parther holds the following...WITHOUT the QUEEN, and nothing else

Axx
Axxx
xxxxx
x

As you pointed out, with the jack of Spade, a slam is okay. I don`t believe, that it is just 50 %.

Yes, you are correct, with the spade JACK, the play is considerably better than 50%. Your play fails only against 4-1, making it about 72%. Good catch. But now what are the odds partner will have the spade JACK? It turns out this is calculatable. Partner has two unknown spades, the opponents have 7 spades total, but one is the SPADE QUEEN. So there are 8 spades, partner has two of them. He is 75% to have two small, and 25% to have Jx.

When he has AJx, slam is about 72% to make. If he has Axx, slam chance is, again, 34%. So now, you can apply the math even more accurately than in my previous post.

1) Partner lacks the spade JACK
Imps for pass
34% +1370 +620 =750 -13 (*.34) =-4.42
66% -100 +600 +700 +12(*.66)= 7.92

Net +3.5 (*frequency 0.75) = +2.6

2) Partner has the spade JACK
Imps for pass
72% +1370 +620 =750 -13 (*.72) =--9.93
28% -100 +600 +700 +12(*.28)= +3.36

Net -6 imps (frequency 0.25 -6*.25) = -1.5 imps

So if I got it even close to right. Bidding 6 Diamonds rates to lose 1.1 imp, while bidding 5 Diamonds rates to win 1.1 imp.

Of course, i could be wrong... :-)

[the hog]

Pd definitely DOES NOT have SQ. Its the SJ you don't know about. As I said, you can find out, but by that level then you have commited yourself to a slam. Maybe we need to change the system and start off by asking for Js. Australian Blackwood - 4NT, I have a good hand do you have any jacks?
Like the Tasmanian asking bid
(1H) 3H - pd I have a H stopper, by any chance do you have a solid suit somewhere?

[Cave_Draco]

Quote

Pd definitely DOES NOT have SQ. Its the SJ you don't know about. As I said, you can find out, but by that level then you have commited yourself to a slam. Maybe we need to change the system and start off by asking for Js. Australian Blackwood - 4NT, I have a good hand do you have any jacks?
Like the Tasmanian asking bid
(1H) 3H - pd I have a H stopper, by any chance do you have a solid suit somewhere?

Lol, does the Drongo really migrate the wrong way?
Not bridge related, just curious, ;D.

[rtewari]

Good Job, rtewari. I had overlooked the obvious losing to Qx doubleton on the hook. This does indeed give you extra chances due to the holding of the Spade T-9.

The defense can try to lead you astray when honors are split, by after winning the heart Queen leading a high spade. They have to do the same when the hand with Heart Qx holds both spade honors. You have to guess whether the honors are split or not, but you have a shot now. Still no chance if the hand that wins the heart has neither top spade... but after all, your partner MAY have the spade JACK. This additional chance makes the bidding the slam more reasonable.... but only in diamonds :-)

(ADMIN: This post was written by Inquiry... not sure how it got under this name - skrshawk

[Laird]

Hello All

I'm reluctant to post here, but since my name was used I feel I have to make some comment.
I would be reluctant to question much of what our experts say regarding bridge matters but this time The_Hog has got it all wrong.

This is more than a 'wee dram' problem!

More like a 3 or 4 dram problem.

First dram...helps in evidence gathering
2nd dram...essential for planning stage
3rd dram... get on with it
4'th dram... Could be ( See I told you it was easy... or Och I'm sorry partner).

I'm with Codo and Cave_Draco if you take on the slam in diamonds there seems to be some more options .... but what do I know.
Would you really believe someone who is drunk.

John (sutor ne supra crepidam)....Hic

[the hog]

The defense can try to lead you astray when honors are split, by after winning the heart Queen leading a high spade.

That is always on the cards, excuse the pun, but you are playing a very strong team so I would expect this.

John, It is over 40 years since I studied Latin. I got the crepidam bit lol

Ron
Currently drinking The Macallan 15yo

[Antoine Fourrière]

Still, must partner play notrump? Because if I am to play in 6N, what does LHO lead?
Should a good player lead diamond(s)? No, certainly not. His partner rates to have four.
Clubs in front of the singleton? With both King and Queen, probably, but not otherwise.
Spades and Hearts are welcome.
And there are leads which would make declarer feel that LHO holds the heart queen - spades if queen and jack are not in the same hand, for instance.