[jmcw]

If some kind soul could please sim. Thankyou

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South hand will be:
1. 15/17 HCP with 5♥ and any 332
2. 15/17 HCP with 5♥ and any 431

I need to find the average number of tricks taken playing ♥ and the average in a NT contract, under conditions 1 and 2

I get a beer if the difference is more than 1

[hrothgar]

jmcw, on 2012-August-18, 11:11, said:

If some kind soul could please sim. Thankyou

---

South hand will be:
1. 15/17 HCP with 5♥ and any 332
2. 15/17 HCP with 5♥ and any 431

I need to find the average number of tricks taken playing ♥ and the average in a NT contract, under conditions 1 and 2

I get a beer if the difference is more than 1

Here's the rub...

Some of the really big swings are going to occur when partner holds a stiff opposite your xxx. In these cases, Hearts will play much better than NT. At the same time, these are the case where some kind of overcall seems likely. Simply put, the rules for the sim don't seem realistic...

[Siegmund]

You may well be on track for a beer.

In 1000 random deals for #1, hearts took 9720 tricks and notrump 8431.
In 1000 random deals for #2, hearts took 10217 tricks and notrump 8202.

But as hrothgar said, be careful not to take this too far out of context.

(In particular if you are trying to justify using Stayman opposite a 1NT opener, I dont think you have a winning argument, the 5-4 fit being quite a rare outcome.)

[jmcw]

Siegmund, on 2012-August-18, 12:07, said:

You may well be on track for a beer.

In 1000 random deals for #1, hearts took 9720 tricks and notrump 8431.
In 1000 random deals for #2, hearts took 10217 tricks and notrump 8202.

But as hrothgar said, be careful not to take this too far out of context.

(In particular if you are trying to justify using Stayman opposite a 1NT opener, I dont think you have a winning argument, the 5-4 fit being quite a rare outcome.)

Thank you very much. Exactly what I needed. Cheers