[manudude03]

---

MPs scoring, what do you lead?

[gszes]

dia ace----has four chances at success

1. neither opp has a dia control and we set it off the top
2. p has 0/1 dia and we set them at trick 2 again.
3. we hold them to 6 instead of 7.
4. If the dia ace does not appear to hit gold a heart switch
might still set the contract.

a case can be made for leading a small heart but i do not see that
as being superior to trying the dia ace first followed by a small heart.

is it possible leading the dia ace will be the only way they can make 6??

yessss it indeed is possible but if that happens do not buy a lottery ticket
that day because you would have to be very unlucky.

[Quantumcat]

They already heard we have a void, and are not worried. They probably hold the ace of hearts or a void, since they seem quite sure we can't give our partner the lead with the obvious heart. So I'll hope partner has the king of diamonds, and lead the nine, then he's going to give me a club ruff. Maybe the hand is like this: North: ♠AJT2 ♥A2 ♦5 ♣AJT982 South: ♠KQ764 ♥3 ♦762 ♣KQ65

[gnasher]

Partner should have had a reason for bidding 3♥. He knew that the opponents were going to hid at least 4♠, and it doesn't sound as though he was hoping we'd compete to the five-level. His most likely reason to bid 3♥ was to get us to lead the suit. He certainly shouldn't have a collection of low hearts and ♦K. Hence I'm not going to underlead ♦A.

Actually, I'm not leading anything at all. I saved in 7♥.

[lamford]

Quantumcat, on 2012-August-05, 18:34, said:

They already heard we have a void, and are not worried.

How did they know it was not going to go diamond to ace, club ruff? And they may suspect me of psyching a club void to keep them out of six.

[Quantumcat]

lamford, on 2012-August-06, 02:28, said:

How did they know it was not going to go diamond to ace, club ruff? And they may suspect me of psyching a club void to keep them out of six.

Ockham's razor - the obvious easy lead is the suit our partner said he preferred. That's what he expects us to lead. Note on the hand I gave his pard might hold the ace of diamonds anyway. Actually with his leap to 6♠ instead of blackwood the hand might be something like: North: ♠AT942 ♥- ♦6 ♣AK97642 South: ♠KQJ62 ♥Q86 ♦753 ♣QJ

[FrancesHinden]

Quantumcat, on 2012-August-05, 18:34, said:

They already heard we have a void, and are not worried. They probably hold the ace of hearts or a void, since they seem quite sure we can't give our partner the lead with the obvious heart. So I'll hope partner has the king of diamonds, and lead the nine, then he's going to give me a club ruff. Maybe the hand is like this: North: ♠AJT2 ♥A2 ♦5 ♣AJT982 South: ♠KQ764 ♥3 ♦762 ♣KQ65

Quantumcat, on 2012-August-06, 06:10, said:

Ockham's razor - the obvious easy lead is the suit our partner said he preferred. That's what he expects us to lead. Note on the hand I gave his pard might hold the ace of diamonds anyway. Actually with his leap to 6♠ instead of blackwood the hand might be something like: North: ♠AT942 ♥- ♦6 ♣AK97642 South: ♠KQJ62 ♥Q86 ♦753 ♣QJ

Neither of your sample hands gives South a 1S opening and a 3S bid over 3H. The first because South has only 5 spades and has 4-card club support; the second because it's not an opening bid and certainly does't have 6 spades.

[benlessard]

If north had a H void I think he would bid 4H unless he too scared we save in 7.

[manudude03]

I was North on this occasion. Full hand below.

---

6S was a bit of a punt hoping partner can control the diamonds. If you lead a diamond, you will take it off 2, anything else means it can be made +1. The West on this occasion decided to lead a trump which made life very easy. Gnasher mentioned saccing in 7H, that should be -3 assuming you guess the trumps.

[dkham]

As long as you continue diamonds when you see dummy, and the 2♦ from partner.

[Quantumcat]

You still do better leading a small diamond. If declarer has the king, you weren't going to take it off anyway; just an overtrick. And if declarer (or dummy) has a singleton, you will certainly wish you had led a small one.

[manudude03]

And if declarer had Kxx, oops

[Quantumcat]

That's what I said - if declarer has the king, it is impossible to take it off, and you are only giving them an overtrick, but you tried your best to take it off.

[manudude03]

Quantumcat, on 2012-August-16, 16:34, said:

That's what I said - if declarer has the king, it is impossible to take it off, and you are only giving them an overtrick, but you tried your best to take it off.

Declarer having Kxx means partner is singleton (when dummy comes down with 4 diamonds). Ace of diamonds, diamond ruff, club ruff, diamond ruff, club ruff....

[Quantumcat]

manudude03, on 2012-August-17, 00:10, said:

Declarer having Kxx means partner is singleton (when dummy comes down with 4 diamonds). Ace of diamonds, diamond ruff, club ruff, diamond ruff, club ruff....

Ok, I didn't think about that. I feel instinctively though that there's a better chance of partner having the king of diamonds than giving partner a ruff - with four hearts and a singleton, he probably would bid 4♥. Also when the declaring side has so many fits partner probably has five hearts (and he would bid 4♥). Of course I have no maths to back it up so I don't really have an argument :-)