[Balrog49]

Matchpoints, no one vul.

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The opening lead was the ♠K and as soon as I saw dummy, I knew the field would be in 4♥ so I had to make at least the same number of tricks in NT. Here's how I analyzed it and I'd really like to know if my logic was sound.

1. I expected most declarers to win the spade lead and play a heart to the queen, hoping for ♥K to be singleton or doubleton onside. I guesstimated that picking up the ♥K was something less than 50-50. The bidding made it likely to be onside but the a priori probability of K or Kx onside vs. all other combinations was definitely less than 50-50.

2. Obviously, something good had to happen in NT: either clubs run or the ♥K is in the slot or both. Otherwise, I'm dead meat - I'm getting a zero.

3. If the ♥K is in the slot, they would be making 10 to 13 tricks, depending on the club split and if clubs not 3-2, the location of the ♦A. Otherwise they would be making 8 to 12 tricks depending...

4. If the ♥K is in the slot, I'm making 11 or 13 tricks, depending on the club split, the location of the ♦A, and the possibility of an end position. This will probably be a good result.

5. What if the ♥K is not in the slot? If I lose the heart finesse before I run the clubs, I'm dead meat. But if I run the clubs first, I'll put some pressure on them and maybe find an end position.

6. If the heart finesse wins with Kxx onside, I'll have six clubs, two hearts, and a spade for +400. Maybe a good result. Maybe not.

7. If I win the spade lead and run the clubs, I'll have a six-card end position which is worthless. But if I duck the spade lead and win the second round, I'll have a five-card end position. LHO may have to come down to the ♥Kxx, the ♦A and one spade winner. If I put him in with the ♦A, he can cash his spade but then has to lead away from the ♥K and I'll have nine tricks making +400, which is a zero unless 4♥ is going down. (I can get the same result by simply taking the heart finesse.) So how does 4♥ go down?

8. In 4♥, if the heart finesse loses to the king, they may be able to take a spade and two diamonds to go along with their heart trick. In that case, +400 will be good. If the heart finesse wins but LHO has Kxx, declarer may or may not be able to pitch a diamond on the third round of clubs. So +400 may or may not be good.

9. So it seemed like the choices were to play for nine tricks or 13 tricks.

At this point, I was unsure of what was best but was running out of time and had to do something. So I decided to play for nine tricks and ducked the first spade. LHO banged down the ♦A and I had a big, fat zero. He was looking at ♥Kx in the slot. Clubs were 3-2 and everyone in hearts made 13 tricks.

My logic seems reasonable to me but did I miss anything?

[akwoo]

I think you needed to analyze point (8) a little further. Declarer should almost always be able pitch a diamond on the third round of clubs if LHO has Kxx. Draw all the trumps, putting (your) LHO in with the K. LHO can't lead a diamond without giving you the K. I suppose it's possible that RHO has the K of spades (or, even less likely that LHO will underlead his K of spades!) but I don't see that as likely.

(But I'm not sure K spades with RHO is much less likely than Kx of hearts with LHO.)

[CSGibson]

You didn't do a very good analysis of the hand, in my opinion. Here's your key analysis points:

We have 24 HCP, they have 16

They have a 9 card spade fit, but RHO did not raise spades, not even preemptively. Spades are likely 6-3, and LHO has most of the HCP

From 1 & 2, LHO is more likely to be short in hearts and to have the king. If that's the case, you need to play to take 13 tricks.

Win trick 1. You still make 9 tricks with 6 clubs, 2 hearts, and a spade if clubs run and making is your goal, but you also keep alive your chances of 13 tricks.

[Balrog49]

akwoo, on 2012-July-29, 18:36, said:

I think you needed to analyze point (8) a little further. Declarer should almost always be able pitch a diamond on the third round of clubs if LHO has Kxx. Draw all the trumps, putting (your) LHO in with the K. LHO can't lead a diamond without giving you the K. I suppose it's possible that RHO has the K of spades (or, even less likely that LHO will underlead his K of spades!) but I don't see that as likely.

(But I'm not sure K spades with RHO is much less likely than Kx of hearts with LHO.)

Okay, suppose North is declarer in 4♥ and West has ♠KQxxxx ♥Kxx and four minor suit cards including the ♦A. Declarer wins the spade lead and takes the heart finesse, winning. If declarer plays a third round of hearts, West can cash a spade and a diamond to hold declarer to 10 tricks.

If declarer tries to run the clubs instead of playing a third heart, what happens depends on West's distribution. If he has 6-3-3-1, he can ruff the second round of clubs, cash a spade, exit with a spade, and wait for his diamond tricks for down one. If he has 6-3-2-2, declarer gets a pitch on the third round of clubs. If he has 6-3-1-3 with the stiff ace of diamonds, declarer can play four rounds of clubs, pitching a spade and a diamond to make six.

[Phil]

Agree with Chris that LHO likely has six spades and the red suit honors. If we thought East could have the heart K then cashing out for -1 is very reasonable.

Seems obvious to win the spade and run six clubs planning on taking a heart finesse afterward. If clubs aren't running then you need a favoriable heart position to catch up. If clubs are running it gets kind of fun. If clubs split the heart declarers are taking either 10 or 13 depending if the heart K comes down but those in 3N are in a 9 or 13 situation.

If you read LHO for 6322, you have the option of a throw in after a heart finesse if you judge RHO can't win the 3rd spade. You have to make this decision before you discard from dummy on the last club.

[Balrog49]

CSGibson, on 2012-July-29, 19:52, said:

You didn't do a very good analysis of the hand, in my opinion. Here's your key analysis points:

We have 24 HCP, they have 16

They have a 9 card spade fit, but RHO did not raise spades, not even preemptively. Spades are likely 6-3, and LHO has most of the HCP

From 1 & 2, LHO is more likely to be short in hearts and to have the king. If that's the case, you need to play to take 13 tricks.

Win trick 1. You still make 9 tricks with 6 clubs, 2 hearts, and a spade if clubs run and making is your goal, but you also keep alive your chances of 13 tricks.

Thanks. All that effort for nothing. It seems so easy if you just look at it the right way.

[FrancesHinden]

I think you overcomplicated things by trying to work out how many tricks 4H may or may not make. Here's a different way of looking at it:

1. There's no layout where you are making if RHO has the HK (unless it's singleton and you drop it). There can't possibly be any pressure on 6 rounds of clubs: LHO keeps a load of winning spades (plus the DA if he has it), RHO keeps Kx of hearts, a spade & the DA and still has spare cards.

2. Similarly there's no point ducking the opening lead. The only merit to that would be if spades are 7-2 and RHO has the HK and the DA but then LHO forgot to pre-empt. So win at trick 1.

3. Either hearts run or they don't, but it can't hurt to play clubs first. So if clubs run, take 6 club tricks. If they don't run, try and take 7 heart tricks.

4. After taking all the clubs, now is the time to decide whether to cash out for 1 off or not, not at trick 1.