[rogerclee]

Third Seat, P 1N P 3N AP

Axx J9x ATxx JTx

[Hanoi5]

♥9

A sim would be nice.

[kfay]

4th from longest and strongest, imo.

I don't see how a passive round-suit lead will do anything but hurt us. If partner has the goods in those suits to get a set then declarer can most likely foil our plans with a holdup anyway. It seems we're just more likely to just be skewering a frozen suit.

Choosing between the pointeds, the 10 and the 4th card bolster the choice for a diamond. The auction doesn't worry me.

[Fluffy]

at MPs I wouldn´t lead a diamond, a club to be passive. At IMPs club would be my last option though, diamond, hearts or even spades could be best. I´d go with a spade.

[wclass___]

♣J

[chasetb]

I'm assuming this is IMPs, though I probably wouldn't change my answer even at MPs. I lead a low Spade, because partner can easily have two Queens and length in our suit, and otherwise we likely aren't setting them.

[mike777]

low d.

[MrAce]

♣J

[Mbodell]

What constraints to size and shape would you put on the opps hands for a simulation? What about on partner who passed in first seat (no weak 2 in a major?)?

I suspect, having recently been reading the new book on opening leads against nt, that the best double dummy after the opening lead simulated lead is the spade A.

[SteveMoe]

Looks like we're reading "Winning Notrump Leads" by Bird & Anthias.
Lots of sim hands document the major suit bias for the 1N-3N auction.
♠A lead works when holding supporting honor.
Suspect ♥9 would be the winner on this hand, but likely not by much.
Good point that partner's pass reduces bias toward Major Suit lead from shortness.
However our HCP suggest partner had nothing to say even with a 6-card major.

No hand in the book is a close match, but the authors generalize:
"When comparing two major suit leads (or minor suit leads), it is usually
better to lead from two low or three low rather than low from 4 cards
headed by one or two honors. Leads from a major suit doubleton fare
surprisingly well because partner is likely ot hold at least 5 cards opposite."

Some useful expectations tables:
West Suit Length: 1--------2--------3-------4-------5-------6
East Length ♥/♠: 5.4-----4.7-----4.0-----3.3-----2.6-----2.0
East Length ♣/♦: 3.8-----3.3-----2.9-----2.4-----2.0-----1.6

[mike777]

No hand in the book is a close match, but the authors generalize



thanks for your post....interesting

[MrAce]

I didnt read that book, but i doubt it would convince me in anyway to lead my ♠A from Axx unless bidding suggests that they are bidding 3 nt due to a long suit. Sorry i just cant see myself banging down unprotected Ace from Axx to collect air from opponents, especially when the expected shapes are balanced vs balanced most of the time in this auction.

[karlson]

I'm sure it's been written before, but much of the reason that ace leads seem to work so well double dummy is that you always get to switch to the right suit at trick 2, which is by no means guaranteed single-dummy.

I'd lead the ♣J on this hand.

[nigel_k]

♠A is probably the best choice as an attacking lead. It needs Kxxxx with partner, or maybe Qxxxx with one opponent having Kx. Other leads need more than that to produce five tricks.

But I would try to go passive here and lead a club.

[Mbodell]

karlson, on 2012-July-23, 02:51, said:

I'm sure it's been written before, but much of the reason that ace leads seem to work so well double dummy is that you always get to switch to the right suit at trick 2, which is by no means guaranteed single-dummy.

I'd lead the ♣J on this hand.

Yes, the book acknowledges this, but isn't totally convincing on this point. But it comes in to play with double dummy analysis on non-ace leads too. Sometimes leading a non-standard suit works well because partner figures out to attack declarer in your suit where at the table that would be hard to find.

[keylime]

I'm old school. Goren wrote a long time ago that 1N-3N was a spade lead unless something was clearcut. So, low spade for me.

[phil_20686]

kfay, on 2012-July-22, 14:16, said:

4th from longest and strongest, imo.

I don't see how a passive round-suit lead will do anything but hurt us. If partner has the goods in those suits to get a set then declarer can most likely foil our plans with a holdup anyway. It seems we're just more likely to just be skewering a frozen suit.

Choosing between the pointeds, the 10 and the 4th card bolster the choice for a diamond. The auction doesn't worry me.

This assumes that declarer has nine tricks. A fair amount of the time dummy goes down with a 4333 hand with scattered values, and you just have to avoid giving anythign away. Obviously a club will hurt if it is right to go offensive, but on this hand passive is likely to work just as well, and since our attacking leads arent very tasty, and our passive leads are quite tasty, it seems right to go passive. Times a hundred at MP.

So club J for me.

[Phil]

Partner will have about 0-6, and usually 4-5 or so. Responder usually won't have a four or five card major, but more and more I see random jumps to 3N with a scattered balanced 9 or 10 with a major. However, if we are hoping for a doubleton in dummy, it will more likely be a major instead of a minor.

Its hard to see how we can beat this hand when partner has 0-1 points.

When partner has 2-3, we really need a long suit from him. (K)Qxxxx of spades is one possibility, but Qxxxx of clubs doesn't help since declarer can lay off once. Also note that whatever clubs and hearts are fairly even, since both usually need a T/9 kicker from partner.

When partner has 4-6, we might be beating this simply by taking our tricks. We have some useful intermediates.

From worst to first:

E. ♦. This rates to blow a trick a lot even if we can get the suit going, so its break even at best.

D. Low heart. Even if we catch partner with a great holding - Q8xxx, we might be blocking the suit in the process.

C. Heart J (and similarly 9). Works to unblock and is successful when partner has Qxxxx, and declarer H-x.

B. ♠. Hard to tell if the Ace is best or a small one. Partner should realize the importance of ducking with K or Qxxxx when dummy hits with 3, but the Ace might remind him to on the 1st round.

A. ♣. Seems to require the least, and also works in a lot of cases where we need to stay passive and partner has max values.

[JLOGIC]

Club is very obviously the 4th best suit

[pigpenz]

I ran a sim
game west 14-17 3rd seat
2-5 majors

2-6 minors

east
10-11 hcp
4333
3433

2-3s
2-3h
2-6d
2-6c



created 500 deals
following shows number of deals where this card is best lead
if contract makes all cards should be equal(make that note)
I can run the simulator so that only best lead to set contract shows up
also spot cards come into play, original post was xxx

3NT makes 66% of time
a♠335
7♠340
6♠340
j♥321
9♥334
6♥334
a♦283
10♦242
6♦298
5♦298
j♣323
10♣323
6♣310