[Phil]

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The opening lead is the ♠5 (4th best), low, J, ?

[kenrexford]

If LHO started with Q1085(2), then RHO holds AJ(2) and played the Jack at trick one. That's a fairly big play, as LHO could easily (from RHO's perspective) have K1085(2). The fact that we as Declarer have a 17-count means that RHO cannot know from his cards that his partner just has the Queen. (In contrast, move our diamond Queen to Dummy, and then RHO might have the spade Ace and Jack the heart Queen, the diamond Ace, and therefore full knowledge that the spade is the Queen.)

Against this is the fact that rising with the King almost assures a set. You still make in the A-J tight scenario.

Of course, it is also possible that RHO has the entire spade suit and that the spade lead was a stiff, with LHO having the diamond Ace, where rising with the King works, or that the spade was top of two small, where ducking works.

It is also possible that you could duck the Jack, cover the 10 (or Queen) return with the King, and then catch LHO with A(Q/10)85 thinking that you surely must have started with K962 for this line and switch. But, to get to 9 tricks that way, you would need to have LHO also have the diamond Ace, win that and not try spades at that point, and then either read the heart Queen as doubleton or catch LHO with that card also and a squeeze.

[JLOGIC]

I don't get it

[JLOGIC]

Oh maybe I get it, duck and play for QJ tight of spades on my right, DA on my right, and Qx of hearts comin down? LOL.

[JLOGIC]

I guess the most interesting question is whether to play the DJ or D2 at trick 2, if they are bad play the jack if they are good play the 2.

[MrAce]

I think Phil is trying to say that a good defender would not lead ♠ from AQTx. He is leading either from a 5 card suit, or 6 card suit, or he is leading for his pd. Winning the K at T1 will fail in all of these scenarios, while winning the K will almost only win when indeed if LHO made a lead from AQTx.

EDIT : Winning the K also works when LHO led from ATx and we couldnt read the position and/or ♦ A was with long spades.

[JLOGIC]

If LHO has a 5 card spade suit, he has the ace, with AJ doubleton RHO would have played the ace obviously. But in case you think AJ doubleton is somehow possible, winning is correct against it.

If LHO has 5 to the ace, ducking the spade king just loses a trick for no reason. Down 2 is still worse than down 1.

If LHO has a 6 card spade suit, he has led the wrong spade spot, so we can rule that out. But even if we aren't ruling it out, and LHO has led the wrong spot from 6, winning is STILL the correct play, as we need the SK for our 9th trick unless the HQ is dropping doubleton most likely. If LHO has AQT8xx of spades and the DA he probably would ahve bid over 1N, so I'm quite happy winning the spade and driving the diamond for 9 tricks.

You ruled out LHO leading from AT85, why? That seems like a pretty reasonable lead. Yes, winning the spade will need 4-3 spades most likely, but since ducking will never gain and often will just lose an undertrick for no reason, it seems pretty easy to win the spade.

[JLOGIC]

You are right that ducking wins when lho has 52 doubleton of spades and the DA and RHO has falsecarded his spade if you choose to play for that. Fair enough, personally I think that would be a silly play, just losing 2 imps all the time alone would be reason to prevent me from playing for that, not to mention LHO having AT85, AT5, or AQT5 and losing a game swing

[MrAce]

JLOGIC, on 2012-May-11, 11:37, said:

You ruled out LHO leading from AT85, why? That seems like a pretty reasonable lead. Yes, winning the spade will need 4-3 spades most likely, but since ducking will never gain and often will just lose an undertrick for no reason, it seems pretty easy to win the spade.

I didnt rule out AT8x, i edited and put it but when see you mentioned it reedited and deleted it. Thats true he may lead from AT8x. but it is not true that ducking will never win. Ducking will win when he led for his pd and LHO has the ♦A. Though if that was the case RHO would play T at T1, not the J.

I also think winning is the correct play and i would win my K at T1 at the table, i was trying to figure what Phil was upto after you replied "i dont get it" The main reason to win our K is that, as you said, it is our 9th trick, which rules out some of the spade combinations, which wasnt too many to start with anyway, where ducking could have gained.

[JLOGIC]

52 doubleton is one combination. LHO having the DA is half of that. RHO falsecarding with the jack is some %age of that. This is not to mention, you know, LHO usually won't lead from 52 doubleton, especially when he is not broke (he has the DA afterall). It is almost impossible that he would not have preferred a heart lead even if he didn't want to lead a minor on 1N p 3N.

[MrAce]

JLOGIC, on 2012-May-11, 11:52, said:

52 doubleton is one combination. LHO having the DA is half of that. RHO falsecarding with the jack is some %age of that. This is not to mention, you know, LHO usually won't lead from 52 doubleton, especially when he is not broke (he has the DA afterall). It is almost impossible that he would not have preferred a heart lead even if he didn't want to lead a minor on 1N p 3N.

Agreed

MrAce, on 2012-May-11, 11:28, said:

. Winning the K at T1 will fail in all of these scenarios, while winning the K will almost only win when indeed if LHO made a lead from AQTx.

This part was nonsense, i noticed it as soon as i posted it, as i said tried to delete it but didnt after it was replied.

[Phil]

IMPs? Why do we care if spades are 4-3?

There's another reason I posted this and I am surprised no one has glommed onto the reason yet.

[JLOGIC]

Phil, on 2012-May-11, 12:07, said:

IMPs? Why do we care if spades are 4-3?

There's another reason I posted this and I am surprised no one has glommed onto the reason yet.

Because if we duck it we will go down if LHO has the ace???? You don't have 9 tricks without the SK being one dude.

[Phil]

JLOGIC, on 2012-May-11, 12:12, said:

Because if we duck it we will go down if LHO has the ace???? You don't have 9 tricks without the SK being one dude.

I know.

I almost entitled this "play 3N with Hemant on your left" but that seemed like too much of a clue

[JLOGIC]

RHO didn't play the SA. Ergo LHO has the SA. Ergo I win the SK!

We hope to take 4 club tricks, 2 diamond tricks, 2 heart tricks, and a 9th trick. We can take that 9th trick right now with the SK. Ergo I win the SK!

Give the first statement, if we duck trick one we will lose at least 4 spades and 1 diamod. That is 5 tricks for them which is not good. However, if we win trick 1 they might only have 3 spades and 1 diamond (that's right, if spades are 4-3!).

[JLOGIC]

Phil, on 2012-May-11, 12:14, said:

I know.

I almost entitled this "play 3N with Hemant on your left" but that seemed like too much of a clue

I have no idea what this means, I'll guess he led from 2 small and declarer won the king. It is still 100 % to win the king.

[JLOGIC]

How about this. LHO has 5 spades to the ace at least 5 times more often than 52 doubleton of spades, and the DA. Therefore, even if those were the only possibilities, it would be correct to win the SK since we save 2 imps far more often than we drop ten. Surely this MUST be true.

[Phil]

This hand is not about ducking the ♠K at T1.

There was a beautiful hand in the USBC here Hemant abandoned his winners to stop Reese from getting squeezed in the red suits.

Surely there are many similar layouts on this hand from the defender's perspective where it is correct to follow Hemant's line of defense and not cash the spades.

On this hand, I can see a beautiful swindle if RHO has the ♦A and LHO abandons his spade winners.

[MrAce]

Phil, on 2012-May-11, 12:39, said:

This hand is not about ducking the ♠K at T1.

There was a beautiful hand in the USBC here Hemant abandoned his winners to stop Reese from getting squeezed in the red suits.

Surely there are many similar layouts on this hand from the defender's perspective where it is correct to follow Hemant's line of defense and not cash the spades.

On this hand, I can see a beautiful swindle if RHO has the ♦A and LHO abandons his spade winners.

-1

You deserved that for speaking Chinese w/o giving the entire hand.

[Trumpace]

MrAce, on 2012-May-11, 12:59, said:

-1

You deserved that for speaking Chinese w/o giving the entire hand.

To be fair to Phil, he has a good point and does not need to give the other hands for that.

Winning the K at trick one and playing back a spade is a good option, I suppose.

This reminds me of: http://www.bridgebas...spingold-final/