[gwnn]

Nobody said we don't want to be in 25 hcp games, just that finding out whether we have 25 hcp combined comes at too high a cost.

[mgoetze]

bluecalm, on 2012-May-03, 10:37, said:

This is very good 8.

This is surprising to me, I wouldn't have thought so.

[billw55]

TimG, on 2012-May-03, 12:34, said:

These aren't the only possibilities. Sometimes you turn +90 (1NT making) into -100 (3N down 2), for example.

Certainly, there are other possible outcomes. That's why I said "rough". I omitted cases like your example, because (hopefully) we will decline the invitation most of the time that 3NT is down two, and be in only 2NT-1. Not all of the time though. There are also various cases where we are doubled, perhaps a nontrivial minority.

[nigel_k]

I would invite on this.

It is the flipside of the other threads where people are upgrading 14 and 17 HCP hands but never downgrading even quite poor 15 and 18 HCP hands. This is justified on the basis of being 'aggressive'. But it's not aggressive at all if responder compensates by bidding less. You're simply playing a NT range lower than 15-17. The answers in this thread are consistent with that.

Also, the morbid fear of ever playing in 2NT is overdone IMO, especially in this forum.

[gwnn]

nigel_k, on 2012-May-03, 13:53, said:

Also, the morbid fear of ever playing in 2NT is overdone IMO, especially in this forum.

Granted, 'if you make 7 tricks you should be in 1NT, if 9 then in 3NT!' is a slightly similar argument to 'calling in poker is never right, if you have him beat you should raise, if not, you should fold!'. However, neither of them is entirely fallacious and in this case I don't think it's that much overdone.

The argument for passing with many 8's and just raising to 3NT with many 9's goes further than just a morbid fear. There is also an argument on information. If you invite w/ 8 and partner passes, they know he is a minimum so they may defend better and also lead more accurately knowing that we have 23-24 hcp. Now we not only have to make 1 more trick than the passers, but also against better informed defenders. If you invite and partner accepts, it will again make it easier to them to lead and defend later. Well anyway, I'm not really addressing this part to nigel_k, because I'm sure he knows about this aspect too but maybe some other people.

[mgoetze]

nigel_k, on 2012-May-03, 13:53, said:

You're simply playing a NT range lower than 15-17. The answers in this thread are consistent with that.

No, my answer of pass is based on a really straight 15-17 1NT. I usually play 14-16 1NT and my agreement there is to invite with about the top 20% of 9 counts, so translating that would mean inviting with the top 20% of 8 counts opposite 15-17. I didn't think this hand is in the top 20% of 8 counts but apparently bluecalm does so maybe my judgement is just off, I dunno.

[hrothgar]

FWIW, I ended up passing with this hand in a team match last night.
I didn't think the hand was quite strong enough to go looking for game

I ended up feeling sick to my stomach as partner chalked up +180 in 1NT.
The other table played in 2N making 3

[mikeh]

billw55, on 2012-May-03, 11:55, said:

17+8=25. Yes. But several points are worth noting:

( Turning +90 to -50 loses 140 = 4 IMP. Turning +150 to +400 gains 250 = 6 IMP. So (roughly) we have 3:2 odds in our favor?[/color]

You have tried to make this point twice, and twice you ignore an important negative.

Not only do you lose when 2N (or 3♥)fails (whether 1N makes or also fails) but you also lose when he accepts the invite and game fails.

As for this being a good 8 count...it isn't.

We have 5 of our hcp in a short suit. This is a negative, not a positive and not even a neutral factor.

We have only one A and no Kings, while enjoying a Queen and two Jacks....this is probably neutral, but definitely not a positive

One reason given, by the bidders, for using stayman, is the hope of finding a heart fit. Frankly, most hands with a heart fit would leave me hoping to stay low. We hold Jxxx. If you think that is a good holding for exploring a 4-4 fit at the game level, you probably felt 2008 was a good year for the banking industry.

I have no objection to bidding with a good 8 count...I do so routinely. I would do so with this hand if we held a 5 card suit, or if our hand were, say: xxx AJxx Kxxx xx, but it's not.

[gwnn]

By the way, I remember a funny plan employed by ulven on a balanced 8-count with 4 hearts (I believe it had better interiors and might have been 3433). He advocated bidding stayman, intending to
-pass 2H
-bid 2NT over 2D/2S
the point was that the only game you thought was at all likely to make was 3NT, and 2H was a nice partial.

Not much to do with this hand, though, I just remembered this plan now.

[Statto]

2NT or whatever your balanced invite mechanism is. I won't bother with Stayman, the ♥ suit is poor and the hand far too quacky to want to play in a suit contract anyway. But it does have good spots - don't dis those 8s and 9s

[mikl_plkcc]

8 count
1 A and 3 Qs and Js - downgrade
unsupported J - downgrade

So this is like a 8- to me so I clearly pass. (I invite with 8-9 HCPs and bid game with 10 HCPs.)

[billw55]

mikeh, on 2012-May-03, 15:53, said:

You have tried to make this point twice, and twice you ignore an important negative.

Not only do you lose when 2N (or 3♥)fails (whether 1N makes or also fails) but you also lose when he accepts the invite and game fails.

aha .. so I did. So that result, roughly, turns +120 to -50, losing 5. So now I can lose 4, lose 5, or gain 6 - suddenly it's 3:2 against me rather than in favor! A point I had not considered.

.. and about the hand value. I had thought this was an average-ish 8 count. I see some varying thoughts on that here. For what it's worth, the K&R evaluator gave this a gruesome 6.7.

[awm]

In general I try to avoid inviting. The invite gives information to the opposition and gets us to silly contracts like 2NT and 3♥. Thus I try to narrow my invite range as much as possible, either bidding game or passing.... so basically my invite is a "good 8 to a bad 9" and I would pass with most 8s and force game with most 9s. This doesn't quality as a good 8 for me; in fact I think it is a slightly below-average 8. Pass.

[nige1]

hrothgar, on 2012-May-03, 03:05, said:

IMPs, White on White You hold ♠ AJ8 ♥ J965 ♦ Q974 ♣ 82
Partner opens 1NT showing standard 15-17 NT opening. What's your call?

I agree with bluecalm that this is a good 8 HCP.
Hence, assuming, like Bluecalm, that partner's average hand is about 16 HCP. (i.e. we don't upgrade many 14 HCP hands):
3♣ (Puppet Stayman) = 10, 3N = 9, 2N (if available as a natural limit raise) = 8. 2♣ = 7, Pass = 6,

[the hog]

hrothgar, on 2012-May-03, 03:05, said:

Sorry about confusing the original post

IMPs, White on White

You hold

AJ8
J965
Q974
82

Partner opens 1NT showing standard 15-17 NT opening
What's your call?

Pass, easy. This is clearly not a "very good 8 count".

[nige1]

hrothgar, on 2012-May-03, 03:05, said:

You hold AJ8 J965 Q974 82

bluecalm, on 2012-May-03, 10:37, said:

This is very good 8. It makes 3NT opposite 16-17hcp balanced without 5M 53% of the time dd which translates to probably about 58-60% in practice (according to my experience with dd simuls in such situations and comparing it to some real life results but I can't prove it definitely). You also get additional chance of spiking 4-4 heart fit or maybe even 5-4 or 5-3 major. I would say that if you open 1NT with 5M-3-3-2 routinely passing is clear mistakes and opposite "normal" 1NT it's not that bad but still I wouldn't pass. Intuition is influenced by experience and if say: Ax KQx xxx AJxxx is 1N opening for you, then you naturally start passing 8's as those weakish (in context of trick taking in NT contracts) hands start to constitute significant part of your opening range.

phil_20686, on 2012-May-03, 11:40, said:

OTOH, there are plenty of balanced eight counts where I would make an invitation. This just isnt one of them. Two jacks, no tens, mediocre suit texture. It just doesn't feel right.. Playing around a bit gets you easily to hands where I would accept though: Jxx AJ9x Q9xx xx OR xxx AJ9x QJ9x xx

nigel_k, on 2012-May-03, 13:53, said:

I would invite on this. It is the flipside of the other threads where people are upgrading 14 and 17 HCP hands but never downgrading even quite poor 15 and 18 HCP hands. This is justified on the basis of being 'aggressive'. But it's not aggressive at all if responder compensates by bidding less. You're simply playing a NT range lower than 15-17. The answers in this thread are consistent with that. Also, the morbid fear of ever playing in 2NT is overdone IMO, especially in this forum.

mikeh, on 2012-May-03, 15:53, said:

Not only do you lose when 2N (or 3♥)fails (whether 1N makes or also fails) but you also lose when he accepts the invite and game fails. As for this being a good 8 count...it isn't. We have 5 of our hcp in a short suit. This is a negative, not a positive and not even a neutral factor. We have only one A and no Kings, while enjoying a Queen and two Jacks....this is probably neutral, but definitely not a positive .

mikl_plkcc, on 2012-May-06, 03:17, said:

1 A and 3 Qs and Js - downgrade. unsupported J - downgrade. So this is like a 8- to me so I clearly pass. (I invite with 8-9 HCPs and bid game with 10 HCPs.)

the hog, on 2012-May-08, 01:09, said:

Pass, easy. This is clearly not a "very good 8 count".

IMO, for notrump purposes, this is better than average eight-count. Two four-card suits, fair distribution of honours, good intermediates. But it is a bit quacky so the Hog may be right. Anyway, for an interesting discussion on hand-evaluation for notrump, please peruse This and other articles by Thomas Andrews

[ArtK78]

It is still an 8 count. I don't see why you would want to act on it.

[nige1]

ArtK78, on 2012-May-09, 06:52, said:

It is still an 8 count. I don't see why you would want to act on it.

• You have 8 HCP.
• Partner has about 16 HCP (Bluecalm, Nigel_K and I are assuming that 15-17 HCP is his true range).
• Hence your partnership total is about about 24 HCP.
• At IMPs, you should bid 50% games.
• Simulations by Thomas Andrews and others show that 3N is about a 50% shot with a combined 24 HCP.
• Bluecalm confirms that expectation in simulations with this actual hand.

[ArtK78]

nige1, on 2012-May-09, 08:59, said:

• You have 8 HCP.
• Partner has about 16 HCP (Bluecalm, Nigel_K and I are assuming that 15-17 HCP is his true range).
• Hence your partnership total is about about 24 HCP.
• At IMPs, you should bid 50% games.
• Simulations by Thomas Andrews and others show that 3N is about a 50% shot with a combined 24 HCP.
• Bluecalm confirmed that expectation in simulations with this actual hand.

There have been a number of prior posts showing that, even if this were true, which I doubt, it would still be risking turning a plus into a minus without enough of a gain to make it worthwhile. When partner's range is 15-17, the combined chance that he holds either 16 or 17 is about the same (perhaps slightly higher) than the chance that he holds 15 (15 is the most likely of the three, but the combination of 16 and 17 is greater than 15). Furthermore, he may have upgraded a "good" 14.

So, you have a little more than a 50% chance of having 24 or 25 HCP, which would give you a 50% chance of game. Not the kind of odds that I am looking for.

If you act over 1NT and do not bid game, you have increased the chance of achieving a minus score without any chance of a gain.

If you act over 1NT and do bid game, game will make about 50% of the time. So you will have improved your score 50% of the time and harmed your score 50% of the time. The IMP odds make it worth your while to bid the 50% game, but that does not take into account the IMPs lost by moving over 1NT when you don't bid game.

You have better odds when vulnerable, but even then it may not be worth it.

[nige1]

ArtK78, on 2012-May-09, 13:13, said:

There have been a number of prior posts showing that, even if this were true, which I doubt, it would still be risking turning a plus into a minus without enough of a gain to make it worthwhile. When partner's range is 15-17, the combined chance that he holds either 16 or 17 is about the same (perhaps slightly higher) than the chance that he holds 15 (15 is the most likely of the three, but the combination of 16 and 17 is greater than 15). Furthermore, he may have upgraded a "good" 14.
So, you have a little more than a 50% chance of having 24 or 25 HCP, which would give you a 50% chance of game. Not the kind of odds that I am looking for.
If you act over 1NT and do not bid game, you have increased the chance of achieving a minus score without any chance of a gain.
If you act over 1NT and do bid game, game will make about 50% of the time. So you will have improved your score 50% of the time and harmed your score 50% of the time. The IMP odds make it worth your while to bid the 50% game, but that does not take into account the IMPs lost by moving over 1NT when you don't bid game.
You have better odds when vulnerable, but even then it may not be worth it.

ArtK78 believes that we and those whom we quote are are liars. On that assumption, his argument is reasonable. I, of course, remain unpersuaded. Some additional factors: 15-17 HCP is already quite a wide range but If you assume that partner upgrades 14-HCP hands then, as Nigel-K says, you can assume that he downgrades 18-HCP hands. Also, some 23 HCP games are successful. (Although. you are more likely to make a low-HCP game, the more even the split of HCP between the two hands).