[Quartic]

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You arrive in 6♦ after an unscientific auction. North leads the ♦6, plan the play.

[mike777]

I would hve tried for:
Stiff QH
3-3 h break
clb finesse.


I suppose there might be some sort of squeeze to try for.

finesse spade
win clb return
run diamonds.

have no idea how likely that is too win.

[sasioc]

 mike777, on 2012-April-03, 17:04, said:

I would hve tried for:
Stiff QH
3-3 h break
clb finesse.


I suppose there might be some sort of squeeze to try for.

finesse spade
win clb return
run diamonds.

have no idea how likely that is too win.

I can't see a way to improve on that and make it just north of 80% because I think you'll also have the chance of a 4 2 break with two of the QT9 in the doubleton.

[wank]

run the jack of hearts if not covered....south needs to return a spade to kill the hearts (well assuming they're not 5-1). all three suits are now single guarded (if hearts are guarded at all) so it's a question of card reading but you're in a strong position.

s

you've only lost out on the prospect of a stiff Q of hearts versus the other lines mentioned.

if it is covered, try to drop the doubleton 10 or 9 and failing that try for 3-3.

[Phil]

Hearts 3-3 + club finesse looks like 68% and change. If LHO has the four hearts, I also have an endplay against him, but I would have to actually guess he has the ♣K, although it cannot hurt to run my trump first.

The alternative is to simply take two ruffing finesses in spades which is 75%.

Seems like it is close.

[mike777]

not sure how to figure the odds but I thought stiff h or 3-3 h or club finesse was a bit over 80%?

[Fluffy]

you can duck a heart and hope for a missdefence against bad players. But spade double finese works pretty well on a non ♠K lead and even if KQ are offside you get the chance north panics and splits

[wank]

 Fluffy, on 2012-April-03, 17:49, said:

you can duck a heart and hope for a missdefence against bad players. But spade double finese works pretty well on a non ♠K lead and even if KQ are offside you get the chance north panics and splits

i think having the jack and 87 of hearts massively improves matters from just ducking one.

[rmnka447]

Keep it simple, play for split or onside ♠ honors.

Win diamond lead. Draw remaining trump (Trump can't be worse than 4-1, else North would have led ♦ 10).

Play a ♠ to the ♠ A. Run the ♠ J.

Reenter Dummy with a ♥. Run the ♠ 10.

Hand makes 75% of the time plus the almost infinitesimal amount that either ♠ honor drops when the ♠ A is played.

[Phil]

 mike777, on 2012-April-03, 17:47, said:

not sure how to figure the odds but I thought stiff h or 3-3 h or club finesse was a bit over 80%?

36% + (1-36% x 50%) = 68%

(in essence)

[mike777]

ya I think my line is only about 68 per phil.

good post to remind us how to calculate combine odds thanks.

[Hanoi5]

I vote for the spades.

[nige1]

Quartic asks "You arrive in 6♦ after an unscientific auction. North leads the ♦6, plan the play."

Agree with rmnka447: At teams, cash ♦AKQJ87, discarding a ♣, a ♠, and then ♥. Unless something remarkable happens, ruff-finesse spades.

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[gnasher]

[Deleted - I seem to have caught the not-being-able-to-count-to-seven disease.]

[DavEMikeH1]

The ruffing finesse line actually gains a little more. First, if North has KQ tight of spades you gain, also if South has two or less small spades and south has the KC or at most 2 hearts. (a 9% gain or so)

When South shows out, Ruff in hand play AC and then run of the diamonds hope to either triple squeeze north or on the last diamond you pull a double squeeze.

[mikeh]

Not only do we appear to have an excellent chance by playing spades through S, but few opps would be capable of ducking smoothly with KQ(x)(x) of spades in the north hand when we lead the 8.

I think that the duck is entirely reasonable and, in fact, correct...unless partner has the club A, splitting is tantamount to surrender (at imps) but, still, few players will be able to do it.

Edit: for those who howl that nobody would split, let me point out that this is the I/A forum and that I am certain, from having played against a lot of I/A players, that most would split.

Btw, I wouldn't draw any inference from the failure to lead a spade honour....on this auction, who would lead the K from KQ.

So the spade play always works whenever any honour is with S and (against most opps) whenever S has no honour! That makes it well over 75% in most real life situations.

[lalldonn]

I think the spade line is even better than the percentages indicate and the heart line is even worse. North probably wouldn't lead a trump if it looked like suits were breaking well for you, like if he had KQx of spades under the bidder or if hearts looked to be breaking. Combine that north might split if he has both spades, as Mike said, and I very strongly favor taking two ruffing finesses in spades.

[Quartic]

The full hand was:

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As you can see, the ♠ double finesse works, where going after ♥ and falling back on the ♣ finesse doesn't.

At the table, both sides went after ♥, but one made when North failed to cover the ♥J.