[Phil]

I'm really happy with the way this thread turned out.

Thanks to everyone that has contributed, especially JL.

[Statto]

gnasher, on 2012-April-05, 02:52, said:

... we may make 3♥ but we're probably also beating 2♠ ...

I know you know this, but if we make 3♥ we gain 3 IMPs compared with beating 2♠ by 1 trick undoubled. Those 3-6 IMP gains add up

[billw55]

Phil, on 2012-April-05, 18:08, said:

I'm really happy with the way this thread turned out.

Thanks to everyone that has contributed, especially JL.

Agree, thanks Justin or the long detailed reply, it almost feels like a free pro lesson!

[kfay]

I gave the hand to ch00 and he gave the standard 'dangerous to bid more dangerous to pass' (or similar) response. I agree, and ultimately regret my choice (double).

But I suck lately so I'm not surprised my call didn't work out.

[cherdano]

gnasher, on 2012-April-05, 02:52, said:

Yes, they certainly can have 10 opposite 5 or 12 opposite 3 or whatever, but they have to actually be dealt that. 6-counts are more common than 3-counts, and 9-counts are more common than 6-counts. When they bid 1♠-1NT, they usually have at least half the high cards, even if their lower limit is rather less than that.

"6 is more common than 3" is not such a strong point when your reasoning ("they usually have at least half the high cards") would imply that partner likely has a 4-count or less. To say it different, "6 is more common than 3" applies for partner's hand, too.

Btw, didn't we have the same thread 5+ years ago?

[kgr]

I play 1M-1NT is non-forcing: 6-9 or 3cM 3-7.
I think it is more preemptive then you'd expect it to be.

[barmar]

cherdano, on 2012-April-08, 10:45, said:

"6 is more common than 3" is not such a strong point when your reasoning ("they usually have at least half the high cards") would imply that partner likely has a 4-count or less. To say it different, "6 is more common than 3" applies for partner's hand, too.

But partner hasn't bid, and RHO has. While people occasionally respond with only 3, they usually have at least 6. So while you can't rule out the possibility that your side has the balance of points, it's not very likely.

I suppose the fact that you have such a good hand makes it more likely that one of them has shaded, but what's the chance that they BOTH did on the same hand (unless they're down 50 in the last quarter, so you can't believe anything they bid)?

[lalldonn]

They don't both have to have shaded. For example, 13 + 0 = game for us!