[bluecalm]

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It's matchpoints. Opponents are not very serious but decent pair.
First lead: J♠, RHO plays an 8 to this trick (UDCA).
We test hearts and RHO takes the 1st one and plays 6 of clubs which we take with the A, LHO following with the 5.
So now it's our turn to play spades, finesse or on top ?

[Charlie Yu]

LHO is pretty much marked with ♠10, so go for the finesse for 12 tricks.

[655321]

Charlie Yu, on 2012-March-28, 20:19, said:

LHO is pretty much marked with ♠10, so go for the finesse for 12 tricks.

But why would LHO lead the J, rather than the normal low card from JT65? Don't you think it is much more likely that LHO with almost no points led the J from Jx, hoping to hit his partner with some points and a spade suit?

[bluecalm]

I finessed spades and was unhappy to lose a trick to Jx - Txx. I couldn't imagine anybody leads that way from that holding after this sequence. I guess I have a long way to go in understanding how people play
What is worse, +490 was almost top and +460 was cold bottom (480 was the most frequent score).

[awm]

I didn't want to post earlier b/c this is the novice/beginner forum and I think this point is perhaps too advanced. But here goes....

Its MP, and you are in an unusual contract. Most will not open 1nt on this shape, and will reach a spade contract. You cannot do anything about people in 6S so you should consider how your result will compare to 4S.

If spades are an fact JTxx on your left, the people in 4S will lose a trump trick and a heart (no one leads a spade against 4S from JTxx). So making five in NT will be excellent. Cashing spades from the top is fine. However a 3-2 spade break people in spades make six. To beat them you also must make six, so cash from the top.

This has little to do with "how people lead" -- it's about MP strategy.

[nigel_k]

Adam's point is key. Finessing has no way to gain matchpoints, regardless of the spade position.

Apart from that, it's better to lead x from JTxx, not the jack. But leading from Jx is quite bad as well. I would rather lead from xxx in hearts or even a minor suit, especially at matchpoints.

[johnu]

Agree with awm. If spades don't run, you can still make 12 tricks if diamonds are 3-3.

[bluecalm]

It seems the hand would be more interesting at imps

[lalldonn]

awm, on 2012-March-30, 14:08, said:

I didn't want to post earlier b/c this is the novice/beginner forum and I think this point is perhaps too advanced. But here goes....

Its MP, and you are in an unusual contract. Most will not open 1nt on this shape, and will reach a spade contract. You cannot do anything about people in 6S so you should consider how your result will compare to 4S.

If spades are an fact JTxx on your left, the people in 4S will lose a trump trick and a heart (no one leads a spade against 4S from JTxx). So making five in NT will be excellent. Cashing spades from the top is fine. However a 3-2 spade break people in spades make six. To beat them you also must make six, so cash from the top.

This has little to do with "how people lead" -- it's about MP strategy.

True EXCEPT if diamonds are 3-3 and there is no heart opening lead then people in spades will often make 7 by ruffing a club and running diamonds (throwing a club on the third diamond and planning on giving up a heart if diamonds don't break). I still agree with your point because that situation is too big of a parlay, but it's worth considering.

I also agree with the point that most people wouldn't lead J from JTxx against 1NT - 3NT. Still, some would (even though they really shouldn't), so you have to consider it. More people would have JTx but of course then you don't have to finesse anyway.