[patroclo]

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dealer nord

[Codo]

1. You do not need to bid this slam. It mades because a finesse is working.
2. You really do not need to bid this slam: you have ZERO points which are not working- okay you may spare the jack of diamonds...

There are ways to find out everything you want to know, but I would need to bid the slam in a quite silly way (like 1 ♦ 4 NT) or in a way which includes inverted minors and some other stuff, which is not approbiate for this forum.
(Just my opinion of course)

[phil_20686]

Bidding slams like this is the preserve of the truly expert. Even removing the diamond J or T and replacing it with a small card makes this a truly marginal slam. Worse, its crucially dependent on souths shape. If he is 3-2-5-3 with the same cards it has very little play, as the south hand cannot get enough ruffs without the ace of clubs onside to discard a spade from dummy. Such small margins are extremely difficult to find. I would happily play in 3N on this board.

[wank]

Codo, on 2012-March-27, 06:07, said:

1. You do not need to bid this slam. It mades because a finesse is working.

yes but you have 2 finesses to take or a spade lead so it's very good.

[Codo]

wank, on 2012-March-27, 06:58, said:

yes but you have 2 finesses to take or a spade lead so it's very good.

2 Finesses? Which two?
It is a very good slam because it makes, else it is a little below 50 %, so no good at all- especially as you will least often get a spade lead after declarer announced the spade control.

[kayin801]

If W preempts in spades it seems like a pretty good slam.

1♦-(2♠)-X
3♠-3NT

is still probably a much more practical auction. Only way to slam at this point is if N makes a move over 3NT, which seems anti-percentage, despite the high probability (100%?) of a diamond fit.

[patroclo]

patroclo, on 2012-March-27, 05:55, said:

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dealer nord

Put in other way. How to bid this hand

[Fluffy]

depends on agreements

my bidding for inverted minors

1♦-2♦ (10+ forcing, denies 4c major)
2NT-3NT (2NT 12-13 balanced, not forcing, Now south knows he has 28-29 combined balanced, wich can never produce a good slam)


My bidding if I don't play inverted minors:

1♦-2♣
2NT-3♦ (3♦ now is forcing, with 10-11 would had bid 3♦ previous round)
3NT

And again south is worth no more, he is facing 12-14 balanced, now maybe up to 30 combined wich again is not enough when nobody as a shortness. But if you add a bit to south, something like a queen or maybe a jack, he can try 4NT over 3NT wich is quantitative. North will quickly pass with minimum (12 in a 12-14 context) hand.

The reason why 4NT is quantitative and not blackwood is because south can bid a very strong 4♦ instead of 4NT, pulling 3NT to 4m shows a very strong slam interest and almost forces partner to cuebid any major in wich he has a control (Ace, King or shortness). 4♦ would be the correct bid if south had ♣A instead of the queen.

[Zelandakh]

I could almost guarantee that the most popular auction in most English clubs would be: 1NT - 3NT.

[HighLow21]

wank, on 2012-March-27, 06:58, said:

yes but you have 2 finesses to take or a spade lead so it's very good.

You have one finesse, plus the possibility of dropping J9♣ doubleton or tripleton with the A♣ onside. (A winning club finesse does not parry a spade loser.)

The slam is about 50% and the difference between 6♦ and 3NT/5♦ is marginal.