[manudude03]

32519, it's not the absolute probability you should be looking at, all that says is you probably shouldn't waste as much resources into responses and follow-ups. What you should be looking at is the probability of a 5 card major GIVEN opener has 20-21 balanced (i.e all the unbalanced hands and those outside of range are completely irrelevant)

[Zelandakh]

32519, on 2012-April-25, 03:54, said:

The probability of being dealt a 20-21 HCP hand, ANY DISTRIBUTION, is a miserly 1.02%.

To WASTE a scarce resource on a hand pattern with such a low probability of occurrence has just got to be one of the dumbest things to do!

Quite so. A bidding system would clearly be better if it had no bid whatsoever for 20-21 hcp hands. They are far too rare to worry about. Now the question about whether to use Puppet or not is simply moot.

The question to ask is what you do with 20-21 hcp 5M332 hands. You could choose to pass these as too rare to worry about. On the otehr hand you might choose to open them 1M, 2♣ or 2NT. If you open them 1M then what is your overall score expectation? Similarly for the other possibilties. Now you might find that one of these options is better than the others. Most experts have decided that opening these hands with 2NT is the best option - of course it might not be for you or for a specific system.

If you do decide that including the hands within 2NT is best then you have the different task of optimising your score given you opened 2NT. That is what this thread has been about. Now the probability of having opened 2NT is irrelevant since you are assuming it has already happened. The question now becomes, given I include 5M332 hands in my 2NT opening, how do I maximise my score. Puppet players believe that this is achieved by using Puppet Stayman. Whether you agree with this is irrelevant; what matters is that we are talking about the proportion of 2NT openers that contain a 5 card major, which is considerably more than 0.08%.

Or, to put it another way, in another thread you are discussing whether a bidding system should allow you to take a 2NT opener into 4m with, say, 0-1 hcp and a 6 card suit. What is the probability of Opener holding a balanced hand with 20-21 hcp? And what is the probability of Responder holding exactly 0-1 hcp and a 6 card minor? Multiply these numbers together. The answer you end up with is equally as meaningless, since the probability of Responder's hand needs to be conditional upon Opener holding theirs. Similarly the probability of the 20-21hcp 5M332 hand needs to be conditional upon holding a 2NT opener. Does this help you to understand why your numbers are misleading you?

[blackshoe]

32519, on 2012-April-25, 03:54, said:

The probability of being dealt a 20-21 HCP hand, ANY DISTRIBUTION, is a miserly 1.02%. Once you start adding constraints such as a 5-card major, the numbers fall away hopelessly. So I stick to my 0.08% probability of opener being dealt a 5332 hand.

Bidding space is a very scarce, and to be highly treasured, resource. To WASTE a scarce resource on a hand pattern with such a low probability of occurrence has just got to be one of the dumbest things to do!

What alternatives to (1) the meaning of a 2NT opening and (2) how you handle a balanced 20-21 HCP hand would you suggest?

[32519]

blackshoe, on 2012-April-25, 06:39, said:

What alternatives to (1) the meaning of a 2NT opening and (2) how you handle a balanced 20-21 HCP hand would you suggest?

On page 4 of this thread (post 61 and post 70) I gave a much simpler method for bidding 20-21 HCP 5332 hands containing a 5-card major which saves both a level of bidding space AND guarantees that the 5-card major comes into play. I’m going to flesh those posts out a bit further here.

2/1 and SAYC both open 2♣ with 22+ HCP (balanced or playing equivalent when unbalanced). The two systems differ regarding the “waiting”/negative response. 2♦ is “waiting” in both systems, usually 5-7 HCP. 2♥ is an automatic “double negative” in 2/1 promising a maximum of 5 HCP in Queens and Jacks. The cheapest available minor suit is often played as the “second negative” in SAYC. Anything else promises 8+ HCP.

Moving the 20-21 HCP 5332 hands into the 2♣ bid is an easy partnership adjustment. The partnership will both be aware that the 22+ HCP balanced or playing equivalent when unbalanced may be skewed slightly by this adjustment. This will become evident in the subsequent bidding.

Playing 2/1
1. After 2♣-2♦ you are in a game forcing sequence. You get to show the 5-card suit a level lower with zero memory load. You get to know immediately about a 5-3 fit. With minimal values for the opening bid/response, the auction is unlikely to progress beyond 3NT/4M.
2. After 2♣-2♥ (double negative), opener simply passes when the 5-card major is ♥. Unfortunately the strong hand is exposed on table but those vital trumps come into play which can stop the opponents running your 2-card suit in a 2NT contract. You are on the same level as a 2NT contract but now with a much better chance of making.
3. After 2♣-2♥ (double negative), opener simply corrects to 2♠ when the 5-card major is ♠. Again, those vital trumps come into play which can stop the opponents running your 2-card suit in a 2NT contract. You are on the same level as a 2NT contract but now with a much better chance of making.
4. Your 2NT bids are now free from the extremely low probability of containing a 5-card major. The vital bidding space consumed by PS continuations on level 3 and higher are now freed up for much more effective use. Choose something useful.
5. And here’s another big bonus. No more PS continuations REDUCES THE OVERALL MEMORY LOAD. This can become critical in long matches when mental fatigue starts setting in and errors start increasing.

Playing SAYC
This is open for further discussion. PS does not form part of SAYC. Do the regulatory authorities in the USA allow for modifications? If yes, go the same route as suggested for 2/1 above.

[Zelandakh]

For me, the memory load that 2♣ - 2♥ - 2♠ is drop dead and that I need to bid 2♣ - 2♥ - 3♠ with any unbalanced game-force with spades would be far in excess of anything Puppet could do to me, whichever version was being employed. Not to mention the disruption to our constructive bidding. But then a GF hand with spades opposite a double negative is probably also too low a probability occurrence to matter very much.

[manudude03]

Not to mention that you could easily be in the wrong strain after 2C-2H-P. Say responder has a very weak hand with 6 spades, it's not hard to come up with hands where you make 4S and are struggling to make 2H (Qxxxxx x xxx xxx opposite AKx AJ9xx Axx Ax)

[blackshoe]

2♣ is already way too busy a bid, IMO.

Neither 2/1 nor Standard American specify a particular response structure to 2♣ as "standard". Particularly since, like political parties in France, there are as many "definitions" of these systems as there are people playing them. That said, I'll grant that 2♥ "double negative" is fairly common among 2/1 players. What if I have a different idea how to respond to 2♣, one that's not compatible with your "stick the balanced 20-21 in there too" idea? Now I either have to abandon my preferred responses, or find another way to show the 20-21 hand. And as Zel says, there can be memory problems (although that's true of just about any setup).

For the record, I don't play Puppet Stayman. With those partners for whom basic Stayman is complicated enough (I seem to have quite a few of those) I play that. With those willing to take on a bit more (currently, unfortunately, none) I play Romex Stayman (over 2NT). If I'm bidding 1NT with a five card major, I just rebid as if it were four. Over 2NT, rebids after Romex Stayman will uncover the 5-3 fit, if there is one.

Opener's rebids after responder's 3♣ Romex Stayman:

3NT: 4-4 in the majors
3♠: 5 spades
3♥: 4 or 5 hearts (now 3♠ asks which it is)
3♦: any other holding, so fewer than 4 hearts, and fewer than 5 spades (now 3♥ asks if opener has 4 spades).

A Romex NT ladder:

12-16 HCP: open 1minor (usually), rebid 1NT
17-18 HCP: open 1minor (usually), rebid 2NT
19-20 HCP: open 1NT (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
21-22 HCP: open 2♦ (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
23-24 HCP: open 2♣ (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
25-26 HCP: open 2NT (natural, FG or — very rarely — 4m)
27-28 HCP: open 2♦, jump in NT
29-30 HCP: open 2♣, jump in NT

In the current "two card" version of Romex {at MPs, play "Romex" when vul, "Romex Forcing Club (RFC)" (basically a Precision variant) when not vul — at IMPs play RFC only at favorable} there are two ladders:

Romex:
12-16 HCP: open 1minor (usually), rebid 1NT
17-18 HCP: open 1minor (usually), rebid 2NT
19-20 HCP: open 1NT (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
21-22 HCP: open 2♦ (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
23-24 HCP: open 2♣ (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
25-26 HCP: open 2♣, rebid 2♥ (Kokish Relay)
27-28 HCP: open 2♦, jump in NT
29-30 HCP: open 2♣, jump in NT

RFC:
10-12 HCP: open 1NT (no five card majors here)
13-16 HCP: open 1♦ (usually), rebid 1NT
17-20 HCP: open 1♣, rebid 1NT (modified Stayman here, so that opener can show whether minimum (17-18) or maximum (19-20)
21-22 HCP: open 2♦ (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
23-24 HCP: open 1♣ (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
25-26 HCP: open 1♣, rebid 2♥ (Kokish Relay)
27-28 HCP: open 2♦, jump in NT

I'm not saying any of these is somehow "best", just that they work for me - or would if I could find a partner willing to play Romex.

[awm]

While I don't think much of Romex as a system (way too many strong bids to cater to way too few a percentage of hands), Romex Stayman is an excellent convention, way better than Puppet. It works just as well opposite a standard 2NT opening.

[nige1]

Jasmine ♣ keeps notrump bidding fairly low. with narrow overlapping ranges. With flat hands:
11-14 1♦/1♥/1♠ rebid notrump if convenient.
14-16 1N (This means "about 15 HCP")
16-18 1♣-1♦-1N (1♣ = ART Strong, 1♦ = ART neg).
18-20 1♣-1♦-1♥-1♠ 1N (1♥ = ART modified Kokish 1♠ = ART).
20-22 1♣-1♦-1♥-1♠-2♣-2♦-2N (ART 2♣, 2♦ = ART)
22-24 1♣-1♦-1♥-1♠-2♣-2♦-2♥-2♠-2N (2♥ = ART modified Kokish again)
24-26 1♣-1♦-2N.
26-28 1♣-1♦-1♥-1♠-2N.
.

All quite natural to us

[mike777]

does anyone notice there is no puppet in today/s puppet stayman?

[nige1]

mike777, on 2012-April-25, 19:46, said:

does anyone notice there is no puppet in today/s puppet stayman?

I suppose that Gladiator, which I sometimes play, is true puppet Stayman.

[blackshoe]

mike777, on 2012-April-25, 19:46, said:

does anyone notice there is no puppet in today/s puppet stayman?

Jeff Rubens did. He mentioned it in his editorial in the May Bridge World.

[the hog]

32519, on 2012-March-15, 09:06, said:

If you allow 5-card majors in your 1NT 15-17 HCP range, what does one do in this bidding sequence?

---

You have a good 5-card ♥ suit.
Partner is asking you to transfer into your worst suit. Do you pass 2♥ or do you complete the transfer?

Passing 2H is absurd of course. You complete the transfer.

[blackshoe]

awm, on 2012-April-25, 19:24, said:

While I don't think much of Romex as a system (way too many strong bids to cater to way too few a percentage of hands), Romex Stayman is an excellent convention, way better than Puppet. It works just as well opposite a standard 2NT opening.

Romex is, I think, more appropriate to IMP scoring than to MPs. In the former, games and slams are more important than part scores, in the later, it's the part score hands that are more important. Or so it seems to me. Romex is designed to bid games and slams well. Or so said Dr. Rosenkranz, anyway.

I agree that Romex Stayman works well in a standard (or 2/1) context. Now if I could get just one of my partners to agree...

[lowerline]

32519, on 2012-March-15, 09:06, said:

If you allow 5-card majors in your 1NT 15-17 HCP range, what does one do in this bidding sequence?

---

You have a good 5-card ♥ suit.
Partner is asking you to transfer into your worst suit. Do you pass 2♥ or do you complete the transfer?

I would have opened that hand 1♥. I do not consider this a question of system but a question of hand evaluation.
1♥ all pass or does partner respond with his lousy hand? If he does respond, I blame him if we go down in 2nt.

Steven

[Cthulhu D]

manudude03, on 2012-April-25, 09:32, said:

Not to mention that you could easily be in the wrong strain after 2C-2H-P. Say responder has a very weak hand with 6 spades, it's not hard to come up with hands where you make 4S and are struggling to make 2H (Qxxxxx x xxx xxx opposite AKx AJ9xx Axx Ax)

This is why I like Barmar's playing 2H, 2S etc as double negative transfers.

[32519]

All you Puppet lovers, your convention is safe! The USA controlling bodies absolutely love it! In the USBC Round of 16, Segment 1 of 8, in 15 boards Puppet Stayman over 1NT or 2NT came up no less than 5 times! One third of the hands played: numbers 1, 2, 6, 10 and 12. On board 2 the Milner Team was lucky to make 10 tricks in 4NT after a Puppet sequence. The limit of the hand is 9 tricks on a small ♥ lead.

Another USA favourite was dealt on board 11, none other than Flannery.

On board 4, the DON'T convention worked out very well against a 1NT opener.

Eat your hearts out!

[Vampyr]

32519, on 2012-April-29, 11:11, said:

All you Puppet lovers, your convention is safe! The USA controlling bodies absolutely love it!

I don't understand what you mean by "controlling bodies". No one in an American, or any other, competition is forced to play Puppet Stayman. Not as far as I know, anyway.

[glen]

Vampyr, on 2012-April-29, 18:30, said:

I don't understand what you mean by "controlling bodies". No one in an American, or any other, competition is forced to play Puppet Stayman. Not as far as I know, anyway.

he was talking about the people who pull the strings

[Vampyr]

glen, on 2012-April-29, 18:34, said:

he was talking about the people who pull the strings

I know. But I don't see how these people have any influence on players' decisions to play Puppet Stayman.