[JLOGIC]

Yeah north has to bid 5D. IMO he did pretty well to let his partner out, keycard seems like the alternative to 5D given that partner is very likely to have a stiff diamond (yeah they're w/r but they also seem to have no values). I mean Axxxxx Kxx x KJx is a really good slam and that is not that much. 5D and pass 5S seems right though.

[MrAce]

I am very surprised, i can't even imagine passing over 3♦ with south hand personally.

South has a 1♠ opener with 6 card suit, and thats what 3♠ overcall says, and i would overcall.

It is very IRONIC that some (not all) of the people who advocates passing over 3♦, also passed in other threads in balancing seat over a 3 level preempt with hands like

Kxx
Axx
Axx
Kxxx

Kx
AKxx
xxx
KQxx

with the excuses like; " i dont like my stopper, i have no spots, i have no source of tricks, pd is short and he didnt act over 3♦ he is obviously broke...i dont have a stopper and i cant dbl with short spades... etc etc "

aguahombre, on 2012-March-08, 12:09, said:

Are we back to "preempts sometimes work"?

Back to ? Did you effectively solve your issues with preempts ? Because rest of the world still didnt and they still work, in fact they work more often than just "sometimes"

[JLOGIC]

MrAce, on 2012-March-14, 03:12, said:

I am very surprised, i can't even imagine passing over 3♦ with south hand personally.

South has a 1♠ opener with 6 card suit, and thats what 3♠ overcall says, and i would overcall.

Come on Timo, this is a pretty disingenuous and self serving evaluation. If the DQ was the DJ most people would open 2S. If the DQ was the D2 almost nobody would open, and if they did they probably open very light systemically and would not agree with the analysis that "all hands with 6 spades that would be opened at the 1 level overcall at the 3 level over a preempt"

Giving the stiff DQ a full 2 points does not seem very smart when they open 3D on your right. So even by your overly simplistic analysis that Opening bid + 6 spades = OVERCALL, I would say that this is a pass.

By your analysis, I will presume that there is no hand with 6 spades that you would overcall 2S over 2D that you would not overcall 3S over 3D (unless you think 2S over 2D can be less than an opening bid). This seems wrong, there must be some cutoff where you do not overcall over 3D that you would overcall over 2D when you have 6 spades. It would make sense to me that if there is such a cutoff, it would be at the very bottom of "opening bid + 6 spades = overcall." Surely this hand fits that bill.

Quote

It is very IRONIC that some (not all) of the people who advocates passing over 3♦, also passed in other threads in balancing seat over a 3 level preempt with hands like
...

And again, I really expect you to be above this type of analysis. What would you say to me or somebody who says "I would not overcall, partner might have --- Q98xx JT9xx JTx, and we will get doubled and go for a big number and they can't even make a game!"

You would surely laugh at that analysis, obviously both bidding and passing have upsides and downsides, and focusing on the worst case scenario and saying "OMG HOW CAN YOU DO THAT. YOU WOULD MISS A GAME PLAYING WITH YOURSELF!" is just as bad as what I just said that you would laugh at. It is the same thing in reverse.

Sometimes when they open 3D, you pass it out and miss game. Most people with 4333 13 opp 4333 13 would pass it out routinely also. It is not "ironic" in the slightest, it is the way of life, when both people are max and pass over a preempt or over a weak NT or w/e, you just miss a game. This is not irrational, if both passe have more upside than downside, then they are both correct, even when they combine to miss a game.

It is fine if you think the upside of bidding with this is greater than the downside, but you are better than using this argument like it is damning evidence.

Overcalling very light over 3D is much more dangerous than over 2D imo not because your partner might push too high to slam, or because there is more danger of going for a number (though both are true), but simply because partner has no game try and will raise us to game and we will go down way too often in my opinion. Over 2D, he has game tries, he can make a simple raise, a cuebid, etc. Over 3S he just has to suck it up and bid 4, and when our hand is this weak I think that will happen too often. Of course, we might miss a game, but you have to draw a line somewhere.

One more thing, I think the whole "with 6 spades and an opening bid I overcall" thing is silly not only because it gives full weight to the DQ, but also because it ignores the most compelling reason to overcall...we are short in diamonds. It is definitely true that we will miss game more often when we have short diamonds and partner passes it out because he won't be able to balance (on hands like your example hands). I do not think you would seriously argue for overcalling if your hand had some diamond length, where partner is much more likely to balance when we have a game. Our holding in diamonds is definitely key to how often we should overcall.

[MrAce]

To me south hand is 1♠ opener with or without the ♦Q, but i dont even see ♦Q totally wasted value either.

But anyway, whether u agree or not this is also very dangerous position to pass over 3♦ imo. If i am sitting west each and everytime North will see 3NT. Will he double ? Perhaps, but i can always bid 4♦ later. But i can easily see a lot of North players talking themselves into passing, they dont have a good suit to lead, they dont know what West has and what not. They may double with this 16 3424 hand vulnerable and they may not.

Idk, maybe i am saying this because i been burnt a lot lately for being shy in direct seat over preempts. Here is one;

Ax
KJx
xxx
KJxxx

R/W RHO opens weak 2♦, i would normally not overcall with this 5332 over a 1M, but i believe we shd with those hands over a weak 2. I betrayed myself and my own theory and passed with this. Of course 2 NT from LHO and they stole a chunky game in front of us like oceans eleven. Funny thing is i knew that we were being robbed once i passed and pd tanked over 2NT.

[JLOGIC]

I think overcalling that would be horrible, if partner cannot balance then you are unlikely to have a game as you have diamond length, and the risk in bidding with this hand is obvious.

Sometimes you get burned, I think you are just running bad lately