[Fluffy]

http://www.bridgebas...6225-1330041602

I tried to discard a diamond to muddy the waters, and it should had made it harded for declarer to go right. Here is the end position where 3 players (North, East and South) have pitched a diamond


♥xx
♦AJx


♥xx
♦9xx


Now declarer plays a trump wich RHO must win with last trump and he exits ♦7, LHO playing ♦K

Declarer should duck this and then guess next over ♦10 continuation, but sadly he just raised with the ace first

[gnasher]

Comparing these:
(1) Duck, then finesse
(2) Duck, then play the ace
(3) Win, then play one back (low or high)

(1) gains over (3) against HHT-xx and H-HTxx (3 combinations).
(3) gains over (1) against HT-Hxx and HTx-Hx (4 combinations).

(2) gains over (3) against H-HTxx (2 combinations).
(3) gains over (2) against HT-Hxx HHx-10x (4 combinations).

So (3) seems the best of these, and I agree with declarer.

[wank]

only 4 diamonds are outstanding gnasher

[gnasher]

Oh, I see, sorry. He should still get it right, though: he knows you're defending double dummy, so he shouldn't let Fluffy's discard talk him into an inferior line. Still, it was clever to find a way to give him a reason to go wrong.

[Fluffy]

My father just told me, best is to win ♦A before playing hearts,

[gnasher]

Fluffy, on 2012-February-24, 11:52, said:

My father just told me, best is to win ♦A before playing hearts,

It's a good idea to listen to your parents, but you shouldn't always believe them.

When is this supposed to gain? It seems to lose on quite a lot of layouts, eg whenever North has the guarded KQ.

[Fluffy]

it wins when RHO has discarded from doubleton since now you have no guess left, and it wins when they are 2-2 and when LHO has stiff honnor, loses only when RHO has KQ third (4th originally)

perhaps you though about cashing ♦A earlier, I said hearts when I wanted to mean heart on the end position.

[gnasher]

Fluffy, on 2012-February-24, 18:02, said:

it wins when RHO has discarded from doubleton since now you have no guess left, and it wins when they are 2-2 and when LHO has stiff honnor, loses only when RHO has KQ third (4th originally)

Compared with ducking the first heart, it also loses to an original H-HTxx.

All this talk of a guess is making me ill. Two tricks ago we didn't have a guess: we knew that we were going to exit with a heart and then win the first diamond. Now a strong player who knows the entire hand has thrown a diamond, and you think we have a guess?

The possible lines are:
- Duck the first diamond; then play the ace. This retains all of our original chances, and gives us the extra chance that the suit is H-HTxx.
- Cash the ace before exiting. That loses one of the original chances (x-KQ10x or T-KQxx) and the new chance (H-HTxx). In exchange, you get the extra "chance" that RHO, knowing he is about to be put on lead, has discarded a diamond from xx or H10x. Are you really arguing that we should play for him to have done that?

[Fluffy]

KQ10-xx also.